# Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 30 – 23 Los Angeles Chargers

_Seattle Seahawks soar past a gallant Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 20 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 83% / Los Angeles Chargers 17% · Lumen Field · Mon, 05 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Emanuel Wilson (6' Tipped ⚡), Rashid Shaheed (24'), Emanuel Wilson (30' Tipped ⚡), Tory Horton (35') · Los Angeles Chargers: Kimani Vidal (41'), Omarion Hampton (53' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 83% | Won |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 17% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.4 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 11:07 am_

Seattle Seahawks 30–23 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 4 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Seattle Seahawks took a 20 to 6 lead into half-time against the Los Angeles Chargers. That buffer looked decisive at first. Yet the second half rewrote the mood if not the result, as the Chargers mounted a comeback that narrowed the gap without flipping the script at Lumen Field. Seattle held on for the 30 to 23 win.

Seattle opened the scoring in the first quarter with Emanuel Wilson’s touchdown at 9:55 left, establishing an early lead that took the score to Seattle 6, Los Angeles 3. The Seahawks then extended their advantage in the second quarter, first through Rashid Shaheed at 6:12 left, which made it Seattle 13, Los Angeles 3. This was followed by another Wilson touchdown with 0:43 remaining before the break, taking the score to Seattle 19, Los Angeles 3. This 16-point run into half-time built a significant buffer, with the score at 20-6. The market had the Seahawks as 83% likely winners pre-match, expecting a 12.4-point margin. The half-time score suggested that prediction was on track.

The third quarter saw Seattle continue its momentum, with Tory Horton adding another touchdown at 10:23 left, pushing the score to Seattle 26, Los Angeles 6. However, the Chargers finally found the end zone through Kimani Vidal at 4:53 left in the third, making it Seattle 27, Los Angeles 12 after the conversion. By the end of the third, Seattle still held a 30-13 lead.

The Chargers made a push in the final quarter. Omarion Hampton scored at 7:48 left, narrowing the gap to 30-19. The Chargers then added a field goal, bringing the final score to 30-23. The 7-point difference at the end meant the Chargers had closed the gap significantly from the half-time deficit.

Despite the final score, the Chargers outgained the Seahawks in total yards, registering 336 compared to Seattle’s 306. This included 189 passing yards to Seattle’s 168 and 147 rushing yards to Seattle’s 138. The Chargers also picked up more first downs, 15 to Seattle’s 14.

The difference came down to turnovers. The Seahawks forced three turnovers while only giving up one of their own. This played a key role in Seattle's ability to capitalise on scoring opportunities. Seattle’s pass rush also made more impact, registering four sacks to the Chargers’ three.

Quarterback play showed a similar story. For Seattle, Sam Darnold completed 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception. Justin Herbert for the Chargers completed 19 of 31 for 189 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Emanuel Wilson led all rushers with 81 yards on 21 carries, scoring two touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was Seattle’s top receiver, catching five passes for 76 yards.

The Alphr model had given the Seahawks an 83% probability of winning. The predicted margin of 12.4 points was reasonable against the actual 7-point result, reflecting the Chargers' late push. The model went 1/3 on this match, correctly predicting the winner. The Seahawks’ stronger positional ratings in quarterback, 64 to 31, pass rush, 64 to 53, and special teams, 76 to 42, likely contributed to their ability to hold on. Their recent form of four wins in their last five outings also played a part in the successful outing.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 30 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:54 | Los Angeles Chargers | FG | — | 0-3 |
| Q1 9:55 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Emanuel Wilson | 7-3 |
| Q2 6:12 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Rashid Shaheed | 13-3 |
| Q2 0:43 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Emanuel Wilson | 20-3 |
| Q2 0:00 | Los Angeles Chargers | FG | — | 20-6 |
| Q3 10:23 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Tory Horton | 27-6 |
| Q3 4:53 | Los Angeles Chargers | TD | Kimani Vidal | 27-13 |
| Q3 1:19 | Seattle Seahawks | FG | — | 30-13 |
| Q4 7:48 | Los Angeles Chargers | TD | Omarion Hampton | 30-20 |
| Q4 2:14 | Los Angeles Chargers | FG | — | 30-23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 306 | Total Yards | **336** |
| 168 | Passing Yards | **189** |
| 138 | Rushing Yards | **147** |
| 14 | First Downs | **15** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -8.7 | Offensive EPA | **-5.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 83% probability. The predicted margin of 12.4 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.25 (edge +3.2%) — model probability 83.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -7.5 @ $2.02 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 56.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-13 @ $2.03 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 38.9% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 12 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 83% to see off Los Angeles Chargers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 236 ELO points clear, 1678 to 1442. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Los Angeles Chargers.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 12.4, with the two sides combining for about 40. Seattle Seahawks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Seattle Seahawks have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 37-23 in 2022 Week 7.

Seattle Seahawks went 2-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 25.0 points for and 16.7 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 0-3 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 14.7 points for and 25.3 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Mike Macdonald and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.25 and Los Angeles Chargers $4.00, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -7.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 7 · Los Angeles Chargers 5 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 37-23 (2022) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2026 so far | 2-1 · 1-0 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 25.0 for · 16.7 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2026 so far | 0-3 · 0-1 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 14.7 for · 25.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Jim Harbaugh |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.25 · Los Angeles Chargers $4.00 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 10.0pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| 9.0pts | Avg Margin | -12.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | CONF W · SB W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L | 27.0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W18 L · WC L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 10.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | Seattle Seahawks | 30 – 23 | Los Angeles Chargers | Seattle Seahawks 83% ✓ |
| 2022 | W7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 23 – 37 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |
| 2018 | W9 | Seattle Seahawks | 17 – 25 | Los Angeles Chargers | not priced |
| 2014 | W2 | Los Angeles Chargers | 30 – 21 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |
| 2010 | W3 | Seattle Seahawks | 27 – 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 6 in 3g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·3·2) | 0/0g | 17/28g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.93 AI 48% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/19g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/15g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 23% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 30' |
| – | George Holani | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 30% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/9g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 44% | — | 🏉 35' |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Chargers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Vidal

**Seattle Seahawks** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 7 pass) · model 48% · no TD
- ⚡ Jadarian Price 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 3 · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Cooper Kupp 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- ⚡ Emanuel Wilson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 21% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ AJ Barner — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Shaheed, T.Horton

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (LAC)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert · Pass TDs | O 0.5 | $1.44 | 56% (expects 1.0) | ✓ landed |
| Justin Herbert · Pass yds | O 198.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 219.4) | ✗ missed |
| Ladd McConkey · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 33.1) | ✓ landed |
| Ladd McConkey · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.25 | 54% (expects 3.0) | ✓ landed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rush yds | U 47.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 40.6) | ✓ landed |
| Quentin Johnston · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.28 | 51% (expects 2.4) | ✓ landed |
| Quentin Johnston · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 25.2) | ✗ missed |

**Seattle Seahawks** (SEA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.64 | 57% (expects 2.6) | ✓ landed |
| AJ Barner · Rec yds | U 31.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 24.5) | ✓ landed |
| Cooper Kupp · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.71 | 53% (expects 2.1) | ✓ landed |
| Cooper Kupp · Rec yds | O 25.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 26.6) | ✗ missed |
| Emanuel Wilson · Rush yds | U 42.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 23.1) | ✗ missed |
| Jadarian Price · Rush yds | U 39.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 35.1) | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec yds | U 90.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 90.2) | ✓ landed |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec | U 6.5 | $2.05 | 53% (expects 6.2) | ✓ landed |
| Sam Darnold · Pass yds | O 232.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 234.4) | ✗ missed |
| Sam Darnold · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.95 | 57% (expects 1.0) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1678 · Los Angeles Chargers 1442 · ELO difference: 236 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 64 | 31 | Seattle Seahawks +33 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 52 | Seattle Seahawks +8 |
| Backfield | 42 | 45 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 64 | 53 | Seattle Seahawks +11 |
| Secondary | 56 | 49 | Seattle Seahawks +7 |
| Special Teams | 76 | 42 | Seattle Seahawks +34 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 83%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-05 00:07 UTC (latest tip update)