# San Francisco 49ers v Denver Broncos — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 24 – 14 Denver Broncos

_San Francisco 49ers dig past Denver Broncos._

Half time: 3 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 46% / Denver Broncos 54% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 05 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel Sr. (41' Tipped ⚡), Christian McCaffrey (52' Tipped ⚡), George Kittle (58' Tipped ⚡) · Denver Broncos: Jaylen Waddle (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 54% | Lost |
| San Francisco 49ers | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 11:07 am_

San Francisco 49ers 24–14 Denver Broncos in NFL Week 4 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Denver Broncos started strongly, particularly in the first half, but could not maintain their early advantage against the San Francisco 49ers. Denver's pass rush, rated 63 compared to San Francisco's 45, helped hold the 49ers to just 3 points by half-time. Despite this defensive effort, the Broncos ultimately lost 24-14 at Levi's Stadium.

Denver took a 3-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. The game remained tight through the second quarter, with both teams level at 3-3 at the main break. The Alphr model had favoured the Broncos coming into the match, predicting a win by 5.1 points and giving them a 54% win probability, a forecast that did not hold up.

The second half saw the 49ers begin to find their rhythm. Deebo Samuel Sr. scored the first touchdown of the game with 4:15 left in the third quarter, shifting the score to 9-3 in San Francisco's favour after a missed extra point. The 49ers then extended that lead to 10-3 by the end of the third quarter.

San Francisco's backfield strength, rated 58 against Denver's 44, became more evident as the game progressed. Christian McCaffrey, who finished with 52 rushing yards on 15 carries and one touchdown, scored with 8:52 left in the fourth quarter to take the score to 16-6. The 49ers finished with 140 rushing yards compared to the Broncos' 82, a clear difference in ground production. This rushing performance contributed to their total of 358 yards against Denver's 296.

Jaylen Waddle scored a touchdown for the Broncos with 4:05 left in the fourth quarter, reducing the deficit to 17-12 and keeping Denver in contention. However, the 49ers closed out the game with George Kittle's touchdown at 2:15 remaining, making it 23-14. A final extra point brought the score to 24-14. The 49ers' offensive EPA of 7.8 compared to Denver's 5.8 indicates where the difference lay in the latter stages of the match.

The Alphr model's prediction for a combined total of 57 points was also well off, with the game finishing at 38 points. San Francisco's quarterback rating of 62, against Denver's 47, along with a stronger receiving corps rating of 54 versus 47, contributed to their ability to pull away. The 49ers achieved 218 passing yards from 19-of-30 attempts, with two passing touchdowns. Denver's quarterback threw for 214 yards from 25-of-42 attempts, managing one touchdown.

Despite the pre-match read, the 49ers secured a 10-point victory. All three of the model's picks, including the winner, margin, and total points, missed on this occasion.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 |
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:43 | Denver Broncos | FG | — | 0-3 |
| Q2 1:36 | San Francisco 49ers | FG | — | 3-3 |
| Q3 4:15 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 10-3 |
| Q4 14:08 | Denver Broncos | FG | — | 10-6 |
| Q4 8:52 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Christian McCaffrey | 17-6 |
| Q4 4:05 | Denver Broncos | TD | Jaylen Waddle | 17-14 |
| Q4 2:15 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | George Kittle | 24-14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **358** | Total Yards | 296 |
| **218** | Passing Yards | 214 |
| **140** | Rushing Yards | 82 |
| **19** | First Downs | 16 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **7.8** | Offensive EPA | 5.8 |

**Model Report Card**

San Francisco 49ers defied the model's 54% prediction for Denver Broncos, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 10 points. The game's 38 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 57. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $2.27 (edge +10.1%) — model probability 54.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos +2.5 @ $2.00 (edge +10.3%) — model probability 60.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Denver Broncos 1-13 @ $2.75 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 35.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 57

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Denver Broncos are the call at 54%, but San Francisco 49ers stay live at 46%. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Denver Broncos.

On paper San Francisco 49ers shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The model still sides with Denver Broncos, which says Pass Rush carry the most weight. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 5.1, with the two sides combining for about 57. Lean Denver Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Denver Broncos have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 11-10 in 2022 Week 3.

San Francisco 49ers went 3-0 in 2026 so far, 2-0 at home, averaging 32.7 points for and 16.7 against.

Denver Broncos went 2-1 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 20.0 points for and 23.3 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Bo Nix for Denver Broncos, with Kyle Shanahan and Sean Payton calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, San Francisco 49ers $1.64 and Denver Broncos $2.27, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -2.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | San Francisco 49ers 3 · Denver Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 11-10 (2022) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2026 so far | 3-0 · 2-0 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 32.7 for · 16.7 against |
| Denver Broncos 2026 so far | 2-1 · 0-1 away |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 20.0 for · 23.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Bo Nix |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Sean Payton |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $1.64 · Denver Broncos $2.27 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 · total 47.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.4pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W | 25.4 |
| Denver Broncos | DIV W · CONF L · W1 L · W2 W · W3 W | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | San Francisco 49ers | 24 – 14 | Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos 54% ✗ |
| 2022 | W3 | Denver Broncos | 11 – 10 | San Francisco 49ers | not priced |
| 2018 | W14 | San Francisco 49ers | 20 – 14 | Denver Broncos | not priced |
| 2014 | W7 | Denver Broncos | 42 – 17 | San Francisco 49ers | not priced |
| 2010 | W8 | San Francisco 49ers | 24 – 16 | Denver Broncos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (1·1·2·1·0·2·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 32/31g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.55 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 3 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 30/68g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 22/51g | 32% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Mike Evans | WR | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 4/5g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 11/32g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 11/66g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Cowing | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kaelon Black | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (2·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Denver Broncos** (2 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ RJ Harvey — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Waddle

**San Francisco 49ers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 60% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ George Kittle 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Mike Evans 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the 49ers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Denver Broncos** (DEN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix · Rush yds | U 19.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 12.5) | ✓ landed |
| Bo Nix · Pass yds | O 221.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 223.8) | ✗ missed |
| Bo Nix · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.69 | 57% (expects 0.9) | ✓ landed |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.68 | 57% (expects 2.7) | ✓ landed |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec yds | U 38.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 36.3) | ✓ landed |
| J.K. Dobbins · Rush yds | U 59.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 56.6) | ✓ landed |
| Jaylen Waddle · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.74 | 65% (expects 2.7) | ✗ missed |
| Jaylen Waddle · Rec yds | U 56.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 39.7) | ✓ landed |
| Pat Bryant · Rec yds | U 22.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 17.8) | ✗ missed |
| Pat Bryant · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.65 | no read (expects 1.9) | ✗ missed |
| RJ Harvey · Rec yds | U 21.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 15.6) | ✗ missed |
| RJ Harvey · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.75 | 59% (expects 2.5) | ✗ missed |

**San Francisco 49ers** (SF)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy · Rush yds | O 16.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 18.6) | ✓ landed |
| Brock Purdy · Pass yds | O 229.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 254.6) | ✗ missed |
| Brock Purdy · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.89 | 54% (expects 1.8) | ✓ landed |
| Christian McCaffrey · Rec yds | U 38.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 38.2) | ✓ landed |
| Christian McCaffrey · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.93 | 54% (expects 4.0) | ✓ landed |
| Christian McCaffrey · Rush yds | O 65.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 71.1) | ✗ missed |
| George Kittle · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.12 | 56% (expects 3.8) | ✓ landed |
| George Kittle · Rec yds | U 64.5 | $1.88 | 55% (expects 42.5) | ✗ missed |
| Kaelon Black · Rush yds | O 23.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 29.2) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1614 · Denver Broncos 1602 · ELO difference: 11 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Denver Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 62 | 47 | San Francisco 49ers +15 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 47 | San Francisco 49ers +7 |
| Backfield | 58 | 44 | San Francisco 49ers +14 |
| Pass Rush | 45 | 63 | Denver Broncos +18 |
| Secondary | 52 | 51 | Even |
| Special Teams | 54 | 68 | Denver Broncos +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 57 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-05 00:07 UTC (latest tip update)