# Philadelphia Eagles v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Philadelphia Eagles 20 – 24 Los Angeles Rams

_Los Angeles Rams roar back to bulldoze Philadelphia Eagles from 10 down._

Half time: 20 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 46% / Los Angeles Rams 54% · Lincoln Financial Field · Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Philadelphia Eagles: Darius Cooper (25'), Darius Cooper (30') · Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua (29' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (57' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 54% | Won |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.4 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 07:48 am_

Philadelphia Eagles 20–24 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 4 at Lincoln Financial Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Los Angeles Rams defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20 at Lincoln Financial Field, overturning a 10-point half-time deficit. The Eagles had led 20-10 at the break, but a scoreless second half for Philadelphia allowed the Rams to secure the win with two fourth-quarter touchdowns from Kyren Williams.

Philadelphia established their lead in the second quarter. The first quarter ended with the score tied 3-3. Darius Cooper then scored a touchdown for the Eagles with 5:44 left in the second quarter, making the score 12-3. Puka Nacua scored a touchdown for the Rams with 1:55 remaining in the second, bringing the score to 13-9. Cooper then scored his second touchdown with just three seconds left before half-time, giving Philadelphia a 19-10 lead. After the extra point, the Eagles went into the break with a 20-10 advantage.

The third quarter saw no scoring from either side, maintaining the Eagles' 20-10 lead. The Rams began to close the gap in the fourth quarter. Kyren Williams scored a touchdown with 3:59 remaining, bringing the score to 20-16. Williams then found the end zone again with 1:10 left on the clock, putting the Rams ahead 23-20. A successful extra point pushed the final margin to four points, with the Rams winning 24-20.

The Rams' second-half performance was supported by a significant statistical advantage. They finished with 423 total yards compared to Philadelphia's 197, a difference of 226 yards. Much of this yardage came through the air, with the Rams recording 317 passing yards to the Eagles' 93. Rushing yards were closer, with the Rams gaining 106 yards to the Eagles' 104. The Rams also secured 23 first downs compared to Philadelphia's 10.

Despite the yardage disparity, the Eagles held their lead for an extended period, largely due to winning the turnover battle. Philadelphia committed no turnovers, while the Rams had two. However, the Rams' pass rush was more effective, registering four sacks to the Eagles' one. This pressure contributed to a clear difference in offensive efficiency, with the Rams posting 2.1 Offensive EPA to the Eagles' -16.6.

Key individual performances were central to the Rams' victory. Kyren Williams scored both of the Rams' crucial fourth-quarter touchdowns and led all rushers with 80 yards from 16 carries. Puka Nacua was the game's top target, securing 9 catches for 125 yards and a second-quarter touchdown. Darius Cooper accounted for all of Philadelphia's touchdowns with two scores.

Alphr's model had favoured the Rams before the match, giving them a 54% probability of winning. It predicted a tight contest, with the Rams winning by 0.4 points. The actual margin of four points was close to this expectation. The total score prediction of 43 was also accurate, coming within one point of the actual combined total of 44. The model called this match 1/3.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 24 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:38 | Philadelphia Eagles | FG | — | 3-0 |
| Q1 2:08 | Los Angeles Rams | FG | — | 3-3 |
| Q2 10:56 | Philadelphia Eagles | FG | — | 6-3 |
| Q2 5:44 | Philadelphia Eagles | TD | Darius Cooper | 13-3 |
| Q2 1:55 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Puka Nacua | 13-10 |
| Q2 0:03 | Philadelphia Eagles | TD | Darius Cooper | 20-10 |
| Q4 3:59 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Kyren Williams | 20-17 |
| Q4 1:10 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Kyren Williams | 20-24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 197 | Total Yards | **423** |
| 93 | Passing Yards | **317** |
| 104 | Rushing Yards | **106** |
| 10 | First Downs | **23** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -16.6 | Offensive EPA | **2.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Rams by 0.4 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.62 (edge -7.2%) — model probability 54.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @ $1.79 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 54.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.30 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 37.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 0 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Rams are the call at 54%, but Philadelphia Eagles stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 24 ELO points clear, 1572 to 1548.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. Lean Los Angeles Rams, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and Philadelphia Eagles took the most recent meeting 33-26 in 2025 Week 3.

Philadelphia Eagles went 2-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 18.3 points for and 23.0 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 1-2 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 20.3 points for and 21.0 against.

Jalen Hurts starts under centre for Philadelphia Eagles, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Nick Sirianni and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Philadelphia Eagles $2.31 and Los Angeles Rams $1.62, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -3.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Philadelphia Eagles 10 · Los Angeles Rams 2 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 33-26 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2026 so far | 2-1 · 1-0 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 18.3 for · 23.0 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2026 so far | 1-2 · 0-1 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 20.3 for · 21.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jalen Hurts · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · Sean McVay |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $2.31 · Los Angeles Rams $1.62 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.2pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| -5.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.6pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | W18 L · WC L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L | 18.2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | DIV W · CONF L · W1 L · W2 W · W3 L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 20 – 24 | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | W3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 33 – 26 | Los Angeles Rams | not priced |
| 2024 | DIV | Philadelphia Eagles | 28 – 22 | Los Angeles Rams | not priced |
| 2024 | W12 | Los Angeles Rams | 20 – 37 | Philadelphia Eagles | not priced |
| 2023 | W5 | Los Angeles Rams | 14 – 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 25' 30' |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 38/50g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | E.J. Jenkins | TE | no games | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Makai Lemon | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 17/24g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/16g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 20/43g | 28% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 5/4g | 3/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.89 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' 59' |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 4/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dean Connors | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 46% · **scored Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Colby Parkinson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**Philadelphia Eagles** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Cooper

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Los Angeles Rams** (LA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum · Rush yds | U 41.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 38.5) | ✓ landed |
| Davante Adams · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.70 | 66% (expects 3.6) | ✓ landed |
| Davante Adams · Rec yds | U 74.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 47.9) | ✓ landed |
| Kyren Williams · Rush yds | O 56.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 67.2) | ✓ landed |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass yds | O 252.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 266.7) | ✓ landed |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.92 | 54% (expects 1.8) | ✗ missed |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (PHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith · Rec yds | U 68.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 48.8) | — |
| DeVonta Smith · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.16 | 63% (expects 3.9) | — |
| Dontayvion Wicks · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.59 | 64% (expects 1.8) | ✓ landed |
| Dontayvion Wicks · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 20.3) | ✓ landed |
| Jalen Hurts · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.39 | 57% (expects 1.0) | ✗ missed |
| Jalen Hurts · Pass yds | O 204.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 221.0) | ✗ missed |
| Jalen Hurts · Rush yds | U 24.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 14.1) | ✓ landed |
| Makai Lemon · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.37 | no read (expects 2.1) | ✗ missed |
| Makai Lemon · Rec yds | U 26.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 6.1) | ✗ missed |
| Saquon Barkley · Rush yds | U 78.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 64.8) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1548 · Los Angeles Rams 1572 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 62 | Los Angeles Rams +13 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 54 | 68 | Los Angeles Rams +14 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 49 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 65 | Los Angeles Rams +8 |
| Special Teams | 56 | 55 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Los Angeles Rams favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 20:48 UTC (latest tip update)