# New York Giants v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Giants 36 – 24 Arizona Cardinals

_New York Giants tower over Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 19 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Giants 42% / Arizona Cardinals 58% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Giants: Malachi Fields (26'), Malik Nabers (28' Tipped ⚡), Theo Johnson (44'), Deonte Banks (60') · Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. (4' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Allgeier (12'), Elijah Higgins (38')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 58% | Lost |
| New York Giants | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.8 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 07:48 am_

New York Giants 36–24 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 4 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New York Giants' Offensive EPA of -5.1 against Arizona Cardinals' -15.8 delivered a 10.7 expected points edge that decided the match. They turned that efficiency into a 36-24 win at MetLife Stadium after trailing early and swapping leads through three quarters.

Arizona started the match strongly. Marvin Harrison Jr. scored a touchdown with 11:08 left in the first quarter, putting the Cardinals up 6-0. Tyler Allgeier added another touchdown with 3:05 remaining in the quarter, extending Arizona's lead. By the end of the first quarter, the Cardinals held a 14-3 advantage.

The Giants began to close the gap in the second quarter. Malachi Fields scored a touchdown with 4:30 left, bringing the score to 14-12. Malik Nabers then scored a touchdown with 2:24 remaining in the quarter, giving New York an 18-14 lead. At half-time, the Giants were ahead 19-17.

The lead changed hands again in the third quarter. Elijah Higgins scored a touchdown for Arizona with 7:20 left, putting the Cardinals up 23-19. However, Theo Johnson responded with a touchdown for the Giants with 1:44 remaining in the quarter, reclaiming the lead for New York. The Giants finished the third quarter ahead 27-24. Deonte Banks scored a touchdown at the end of the fourth quarter, extending the Giants' lead to the final score of 36-24.

New York outgained Arizona in total yards, with 337 to the Cardinals' 289. This was largely due to the Giants' passing game, which accumulated 250 yards compared to Arizona's 166. Both teams committed three turnovers each. The Cardinals' pass rush was more effective, recording four sacks to the Giants' two.

On the ground, Arizona had more success, rushing for 123 yards against New York's 87. Despite this, the Giants secured 14 first downs to Arizona's 17. Individually, Jameis Winston completed 18 of 29 passes for 250 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions for the Giants. Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals completed 21 of 35 passes for 166 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. Jeremiyah Love was the leading rusher with 63 yards on 14 carries. Malik Nabers led all receivers with six catches for 112 yards and one touchdown.

Alphr's model had predicted the Arizona Cardinals as a 58% favourite, expecting them to win by 3.8 points with a combined total of 42 points. The final score of 36-24 to the Giants meant the model missed on all three predictions: the winner, the 12-point margin, and the 60 combined points, which were 18 points higher than predicted.

Coming into the match, the New York Giants had a stronger recent form, with four wins from their last five games. They averaged 22.8 points scored and 16.4 points conceded over that period. The Arizona Cardinals, in contrast, had only one win from their last five games, averaging 19.4 points scored and 31 points conceded. The Giants' receiving corps was rated higher at 62 compared to Arizona's 59, and their backfield at 62 against 51. Arizona's secondary, rated 58 to New York's 44, did not prevent the Giants' passing game from being effective.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 3 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 36 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 14 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 24 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:08 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0-7 |
| Q1 6:36 | New York Giants | FG | — | 3-7 |
| Q1 3:05 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Tyler Allgeier | 3-14 |
| Q2 14:55 | New York Giants | FG | — | 6-14 |
| Q2 4:30 | New York Giants | TD | Malachi Fields | 12-14 |
| Q2 2:24 | New York Giants | TD | Malik Nabers | 19-14 |
| Q2 0:00 | Arizona Cardinals | FG | — | 19-17 |
| Q3 7:20 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Elijah Higgins | 19-24 |
| Q3 1:44 | New York Giants | TD | Theo Johnson | 27-24 |
| Q4 2:11 | New York Giants | FG | — | 30-24 |
| Q4 0:00 | New York Giants | TD | Deonte Banks | 36-24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Giants | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| **337** | Total Yards | 289 |
| **250** | Passing Yards | 166 |
| 87 | Rushing Yards | **123** |
| 14 | First Downs | **17** |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| **-5.1** | Offensive EPA | -15.8 |

**Model Report Card**

New York Giants defied the model's 58% prediction for Arizona Cardinals, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.8 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 60 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 42. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $1.79 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 57.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals -1.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.6%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Arizona Cardinals 1-13 @ $2.35 (edge -5.1%) — model probability 37.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.97 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 4 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Arizona Cardinals are the call at 58%, but New York Giants stay live at 42%. The ratings say otherwise: New York Giants sit 27 ELO points clear, 1434 to 1407, so the model is backing Arizona Cardinals against the ratings gap. Form leans New York Giants' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Arizona Cardinals.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Arizona Cardinals by 3.8, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Arizona Cardinals, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Arizona Cardinals have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and New York Giants took the most recent meeting 31-28 in 2023 Week 2.

New York Giants went 2-1 in 2026 so far, 2-0 at home, averaging 15.3 points for and 18.3 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 1-2 in 2026 so far, 1-1 away, averaging 21.0 points for and 27.0 against.

Jameis Winston starts under centre for New York Giants, Jacoby Brissett for Arizona Cardinals, with John Harbaugh and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has Arizona Cardinals favourites, New York Giants $2.07 and Arizona Cardinals $1.79, with the spread at Arizona Cardinals -1.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Giants 5 · Arizona Cardinals 7 |
| Last meeting | New York Giants 31-28 (2023) |
| New York Giants 2026 so far | 2-1 · 2-0 home |
| New York Giants scoring | 15.3 for · 18.3 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2026 so far | 1-2 · 1-1 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 21.0 for · 27.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jameis Winston · Jacoby Brissett |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | New York Giants $2.07 · Arizona Cardinals $1.79 |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals -1.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Giants | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 31.0pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | W17 W · W18 W · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W | 22.8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W17 L · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Arizona Cardinals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | New York Giants | 36 – 24 | Arizona Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals 58% ✗ |
| 2023 | W2 | Arizona Cardinals | 28 – 31 | New York Giants | not priced |
| 2020 | W14 | New York Giants | 7 – 26 | Arizona Cardinals | not priced |
| 2019 | W7 | New York Giants | 21 – 27 | Arizona Cardinals | not priced |
| 2017 | W16 | Arizona Cardinals | 23 – 0 | New York Giants | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 1 in 3g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·3·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Braxton Berrios | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/36g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jameis Winston | QB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Fields | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Malik Nabers | WR | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Najee Harris | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Ricard | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 16% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/18g | 24% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremiyah Love | RB | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.86 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Brooks | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.70 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 12' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Wilson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Jeremiyah Love 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 3 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Marvin Harrison Jr. — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 21% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Allgeier, E.Higgins

**New York Giants** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- ⚡ Malik Nabers — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Giants: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Fields, T.Johnson, D.Banks

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** New York Giants hold the ELO advantage (1434 vs 1407), but the market favours Arizona Cardinals (@1.79). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Giants 1434 · Arizona Cardinals 1407 · ELO difference: 27 in favour of New York Giants

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Giants | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 51 | 55 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 62 | 59 | Even |
| Backfield | 62 | 51 | New York Giants +11 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 44 | 58 | Arizona Cardinals +14 |
| Special Teams | 51 | 63 | Arizona Cardinals +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New York Giants |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Arizona Cardinals predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 20:48 UTC (latest tip update)