# Minnesota Vikings v Miami Dolphins — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Minnesota Vikings 15 – 10 Miami Dolphins

_Minnesota Vikings hold off a fast-finishing Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 9 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Minnesota Vikings 82% / Miami Dolphins 18% · U.S. Bank Stadium · Mon, 05 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Minnesota Vikings: none · Miami Dolphins: Ollie Gordon II (45')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 82% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.9 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 11:07 am_

Minnesota Vikings 15–10 Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 4 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Minnesota Vikings defeated the Miami Dolphins 15-10 at U.S. Bank Stadium. That final score suggested a closer contest than the underlying statistics. Minnesota piled up 370 total yards to Miami's 206 and racked up 19 first downs against just 7.

The Vikings were kept out of the end zone. All 15 points came from field goals. Miami's single touchdown, scored by Ollie Gordon II, arrived with 11 seconds left in the third quarter and narrowed the gap to 12-9 before a late Dolphins field goal left them five points short at the end of the fourth.

Passing yards were a significant factor in the Vikings' total yardage. They registered 247 passing yards against Miami's 85. Miami's backfield, rated higher pre-match at 55 against the Vikings' 51, kept the rushing yards competitive at 123 to 121. Ollie Gordon II led all rushers with 100 yards on 9 carries and that one touchdown.

The Vikings did not commit any turnovers while the Dolphins gave up one. This helped Minnesota maintain possession and field position, particularly in the first half where they built a 9-0 lead at the break. The Dolphins did show a stronger pass rush, securing 4 sacks compared to the Vikings' 2. Their pre-match pass rush rating of 47 was lower than Minnesota's 62.

T.J. Hockenson was a central figure in the Vikings' offence. He hauled in 13 catches for 119 yards. This output reflected the Vikings' receiving corps, which came into the match with a rating of 61, higher than Miami's 49. The Dolphins' stronger quarterback rating of 50 against Minnesota's 41 did not translate into offensive production, particularly through the air.

Alphr's model had identified the Vikings as favourites, predicting an 82% win probability. The predicted margin of 11.9 points was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match, correctly calling the Vikings to win and landing the under 38.5 total against the combined 25 points scored.

The Vikings' recent form included five consecutive wins, with an average winning margin of 11.2 points. The Dolphins, by contrast, had won one of their last five matches and were averaging a -15 point margin. That difference in recent performance showed in the overall control the Vikings exerted, even if the scoreboard stayed tighter than the yardage suggested.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:54 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 3-0 |
| Q2 7:08 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 6-0 |
| Q2 0:00 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 9-0 |
| Q3 11:56 | Miami Dolphins | FG | — | 9-3 |
| Q3 6:35 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 12-3 |
| Q3 0:11 | Miami Dolphins | TD | Ollie Gordon II | 12-10 |
| Q4 6:41 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 15-10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **370** | Total Yards | 206 |
| **247** | Passing Yards | 85 |
| **123** | Rushing Yards | 121 |
| **19** | First Downs | 7 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -9 | Offensive EPA | **-7.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Minnesota Vikings to win at 82% probability. The predicted margin of 11.9 was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 38.5 total call was correct.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.15 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 82.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -10.5 @ $1.87 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 51.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Minnesota Vikings 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 37.8% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 38.5 @ $1.93 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 12 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Minnesota Vikings here: 82% to see off Miami Dolphins. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Minnesota Vikings sit 219 ELO points clear, 1609 to 1390. Form leans Minnesota Vikings' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Miami Dolphins.

Minnesota Vikings own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Minnesota Vikings by 11.9, with the two sides combining for about 37. Minnesota Vikings to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Minnesota Vikings have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Minnesota Vikings took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2022 Week 6.

Minnesota Vikings went 3-0 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 23.7 points for and 13.7 against.

Miami Dolphins went 0-3 in 2026 so far, 0-2 away, averaging 12.0 points for and 28.7 against.

Kyler Murray starts under centre for Minnesota Vikings, Malik Willis for Miami Dolphins, with Kevin O'Connell and Jeff Hafley calling the shots.

The market has Minnesota Vikings favourites, Minnesota Vikings $1.15 and Miami Dolphins $5.50, with the spread at Minnesota Vikings -10.5 and the total at 38.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Minnesota Vikings 4 · Miami Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Minnesota Vikings 24-16 (2022) |
| Minnesota Vikings 2026 so far | 3-0 · 1-0 home |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 23.7 for · 13.7 against |
| Miami Dolphins 2026 so far | 0-3 · 0-2 away |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 12.0 for · 28.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kyler Murray · Malik Willis |
| Head coaches | Kevin O'Connell · Jeff Hafley |
| Market | Minnesota Vikings $1.15 · Miami Dolphins $5.50 |
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -10.5 · total 38.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 13.2pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.2pts |
| 11.2pts | Avg Margin | -15.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | W17 W · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W | 22.0 |
| Miami Dolphins | W17 W · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 13.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | Minnesota Vikings | 15 – 10 | Miami Dolphins | Minnesota Vikings 82% ✓ |
| 2022 | W6 | Miami Dolphins | 16 – 24 | Minnesota Vikings | not priced |
| 2018 | W15 | Minnesota Vikings | 41 – 17 | Miami Dolphins | not priced |
| 2014 | W16 | Miami Dolphins | 37 – 35 | Minnesota Vikings | not priced |
| 2010 | W2 | Minnesota Vikings | 10 – 14 | Miami Dolphins | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at U.S. Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 12/20g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 11/21g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 23% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 7% | — | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/28g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | DeeJay Dallas | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Demond Claiborne | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gavin Bartholomew | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.20 AI 24% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jeshaun Jones | WR | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Malik Willis | QB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Chris Bell | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.20 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kevin Coleman Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Will Kacmarek | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Miami Dolphins** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Jaylen Wright — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Gordon

**Minnesota Vikings** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Aaron Jones Sr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Addison 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- ⚡ T.J. Hockenson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Minnesota Vikings 1609 · Miami Dolphins 1390 · ELO difference: 219 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Minnesota Vikings | Miami Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 41 | 50 | Miami Dolphins +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 49 | Minnesota Vikings +12 |
| Backfield | 51 | 55 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 62 | 47 | Minnesota Vikings +15 |
| Secondary | 63 | 61 | Even |
| Special Teams | 72 | 53 | Minnesota Vikings +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Minnesota Vikings predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-05 00:07 UTC (latest tip update)