# Chicago Bears v New York Jets — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 23 – 12 New York Jets

_Chicago Bears overpower New York Jets._

Half time: 13 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 62% / New York Jets 38% · Soldier Field · Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: Kyle Monangai (15' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Monangai (43' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: Isaiah Williams (51')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 62% | Won |
| New York Jets | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.2 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs New York Jets Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 07:47 am_

Chicago Bears 23–12 New York Jets in NFL Week 4 at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Chicago Bears led the New York Jets 13-3 at half-time, a ten-point buffer that became 23-12 by the final whistle. The second half saw a slight uptick in scoring from both sides, but the overall picture from the first two quarters held firm: Chicago were the dominant side, controlling the game through yardage.

Chicago outgained the Jets 500 total yards to 178. This advantage was built across the field, with the Bears posting 268 passing yards against the Jets' 119, and 232 rushing yards to the Jets' 59. That kind of disparity usually decides the game, and it did here. Chicago also managed 26 first downs compared to the Jets' 7.

The Bears' offensive efficiency was clear. Their Offensive EPA came in at 1.3, a positive showing, while the Jets finished on -4.4. This difference of 5.7 expected points shows how much more productive Chicago were on a snap-for-snap basis.

Kyle Monangai was central to the Bears' scoring. He opened the scoring with a touchdown in the first quarter, with 23 seconds left, putting Chicago up 6-0. Monangai added a second touchdown late in the third quarter, with 2:26 left, extending the lead to 19-6. This gave the Bears a 20-6 advantage going into the final quarter. Monangai finished the game with 146 yards on 30 carries, a significant part of the Bears' ground game that accounted for 46% of their total output.

For the Jets, Isaiah Williams registered their only touchdown, scoring with 9:16 left in the fourth quarter to bring the score to 23-12. This was the last score of the game. Despite the touchdown, the Jets' attack struggled to get going consistently, mustering just 59 rushing yards and seven first downs all afternoon.

Quarterback play showed a contrast in volume. Tyson Bagent for Chicago completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards, though he did throw one interception. Geno Smith for the Jets completed 8 of 15 passes for 119 yards and one touchdown, but the limited attempts reflect the team's overall struggle to move the ball. Rome Odunze was the top receiver for the Bears, hauling in 6 catches for 94 yards.

The only negative for Chicago was the turnover battle, losing it 2-0. They still managed to win convincingly, which shows the advantage they had in other areas. The Bears' pass rush also delivered, registering 3 sacks compared to the Jets' 1.

The Alphr model had a good read on this one. It correctly predicted a Chicago Bears win with a 62% probability. The model's predicted margin of 3.2 points was reasonable against the eventual 11-point difference. It went 2/3 on the match, correctly calling the under 42.5 total. The pre-match ELO ratings favoured Chicago, 1561 to 1368, which was borne out by the final score. Chicago's stronger backfield rating of 67 compared to the Jets' 55, and their secondary rating of 64 against the Jets' 54, appear to have played their part in the yardage and scoring differentials.

Chicago came into the game with a stronger recent record, winning 3 of their last 5 games compared to the Jets' 1 win in 5. The Bears also averaged 27.4 points per game to the Jets' 16.4, and conceded fewer points, 20 to 27.6. This resulted in an average margin of 7.4 points for Chicago, while the Jets had an average margin of -11.2 points.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 23 |
| New York Jets | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:23 | Chicago Bears | TD | Kyle Monangai | 7-0 |
| Q2 8:15 | New York Jets | FG | — | 7-3 |
| Q2 2:29 | Chicago Bears | FG | — | 10-3 |
| Q2 0:00 | Chicago Bears | FG | — | 13-3 |
| Q3 7:00 | New York Jets | FG | — | 13-6 |
| Q3 2:26 | Chicago Bears | TD | Kyle Monangai | 20-6 |
| Q4 10:01 | Chicago Bears | FG | — | 23-6 |
| Q4 9:16 | New York Jets | TD | Isaiah Williams | 23-12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| **500** | Total Yards | 178 |
| **268** | Passing Yards | 119 |
| **232** | Rushing Yards | 59 |
| **26** | First Downs | 7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **1.3** | Offensive EPA | -4.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Chicago Bears to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 3.2 was reasonable against the actual 11-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.55 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 62.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +3.5 @ $1.84 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 50.4% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -7.2%) — model probability 38.2% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.98 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 3 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Chicago Bears are the call at 62%, but New York Jets stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Chicago Bears sit 193 ELO points clear, 1561 to 1368. Form leans Chicago Bears' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Jets.

Chicago Bears own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 3.2, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Chicago Bears, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Chicago Bears have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and New York Jets took the most recent meeting 31-10 in 2022 Week 12.

Chicago Bears went 2-1 in 2026 so far, 1-1 at home, averaging 29.7 points for and 17.7 against.

New York Jets went 1-2 in 2026 so far, 1-1 away, averaging 21.3 points for and 20.3 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Geno Smith for New York Jets, with Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

The market has Chicago Bears favourites, Chicago Bears $1.55 and New York Jets $2.46, with the spread at Chicago Bears -3.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Chicago Bears 5 · New York Jets 2 |
| Last meeting | New York Jets 31-10 (2022) |
| Chicago Bears 2026 so far | 2-1 · 1-1 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 29.7 for · 17.7 against |
| New York Jets 2026 so far | 1-2 · 1-1 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 21.3 for · 20.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Aaron Glenn |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.55 · New York Jets $2.46 |
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.5 · total 42.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.4pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 27.6pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.2pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W | 27.4 |
| New York Jets | W17 L · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Chicago Bears lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | Chicago Bears | 23 – 12 | New York Jets | Chicago Bears 62% ✓ |
| 2022 | W12 | New York Jets | 31 – 10 | Chicago Bears | not priced |
| 2018 | W8 | Chicago Bears | 24 – 10 | New York Jets | not priced |
| 2014 | W3 | New York Jets | 19 – 27 | Chicago Bears | not priced |
| 2010 | W16 | Chicago Bears | 38 – 34 | New York Jets | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (0·2·0·2·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/22g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.80 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/52g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 43' |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/11g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/17g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/15g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Sam Roush | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyson Bagent | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zavion Thomas | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Garrett Wilson | WR | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenyon Sadiq | TE | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Braelon Allen | RB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Jelani Woods | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Garrett Wilson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: I.Williams

**Chicago Bears** (5 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- ⚡ Colston Loveland 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Luther Burden III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Rome Odunze — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 10 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1561 · New York Jets 1368 · ELO difference: 193 in favour of Chicago Bears

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 44 | 52 | New York Jets +8 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 45 | Chicago Bears +6 |
| Backfield | 67 | 55 | Chicago Bears +12 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 58 | Even |
| Secondary | 64 | 54 | Chicago Bears +10 |
| Special Teams | 59 | 73 | New York Jets +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Jets |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 20:47 UTC (latest tip update)