# Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Buffalo Bills 26 – 29 New England Patriots

_New England Patriots rally to see off Buffalo Bills._

Half time: 17 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Buffalo Bills 84% / New England Patriots 16% · Highmark Stadium · Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Buffalo Bills: James Cook (16' Tipped ⚡), Josh Allen (29' Tipped ⚡), Keon Coleman (56') · New England Patriots: Romeo Doubs (8'), Rhamondre Stevenson (25' Tipped ⚡), Romeo Doubs (37'), Efton Chism III (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 84% | Lost |
| New England Patriots | 16% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 15.4 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 07:47 am_

Buffalo Bills 26–29 New England Patriots in NFL Week 4 at Highmark Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Buffalo Bills put up 26 points at Highmark Stadium, with touchdowns from James Cook, Josh Allen and Keon Coleman, and they controlled stretches of the match. They led 17-14 at half-time and again at 26-21 with 4:27 left in the fourth. Yet it slipped away when the New England Patriots answered with a late touchdown and a field goal, taking a 29-26 win.

Buffalo finished with 344 total yards, 253 through the air and 91 on the ground. James Cook was a key contributor in the backfield, rushing for 75 yards on 12 carries and finding the end zone once. Keon Coleman was the Bills' primary target, pulling in six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. The Bills' offence generated 7.5 offensive EPA, but this was less than the Patriots' 13.8.

The Bills had a 26-21 lead with 4:27 left in the final quarter after Coleman's touchdown. Their defence, rated at 53 in the secondary and 62 in pass rush coming into the match, managed one sack and two turnovers. Despite their efforts, they ultimately conceded 412 total yards to the Patriots, including 143 rushing yards.

New England's winning score came at the 1:50 mark of the fourth quarter, a touchdown from Efton Chism III that pushed them ahead by one point. The Bills could not respond, and the Patriots added a field goal to extend the margin to three. This marked a significant turnaround from the model's pre-match read, which had Buffalo as 84% favourites, projected to win by 15.4 points.

The Patriots' offence out-produced the Bills in several key areas. They recorded 25 first downs to Buffalo's 15, and their 143 rushing yards were more than Buffalo's 91. Romeo Doubs crossed the line twice for the Patriots, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism III each adding one touchdown.

The game saw the Patriots score first, with Romeo Doubs finding the end zone at 7:01 left in the first quarter. Buffalo responded in the second quarter, James Cook scoring at 14:15 left. Rhamondre Stevenson put the Patriots back in front at 5:38 left in the second, before Josh Allen scored for the Bills with one minute remaining in the half. Doubs scored his second touchdown at 8:15 left in the third quarter. Keon Coleman's touchdown at 4:27 left in the fourth quarter gave Buffalo a brief lead, but Efton Chism III's score at 1:50 left secured the win for New England.

Coming into the game, the Bills had a strong recent form, winning four of their last five matches with an average scoring margin of 4.6 points. The Patriots, by contrast, had won just two of their last five, with an average margin of -5.6 points. This result demonstrates that past performance and positional ratings do not always dictate the outcome on the day.

The model had the Bills rated at 1650 ELO against the Patriots' 1567, signalling a clear favourite. However, the game played out differently. It was a tough result for the model, missing all three of its picks for this encounter. The actual three-point margin was a long way from the predicted 15.4.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 0 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 26 |
| New England Patriots | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 29 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:01 | New England Patriots | TD | Romeo Doubs | 0-7 |
| Q2 14:15 | Buffalo Bills | TD | James Cook III | 7-7 |
| Q2 5:38 | New England Patriots | TD | Rhamondre Stevenson | 7-14 |
| Q2 1:00 | Buffalo Bills | TD | Josh Allen | 14-14 |
| Q2 0:02 | Buffalo Bills | FG | — | 17-14 |
| Q3 8:15 | New England Patriots | TD | Romeo Doubs | 17-21 |
| Q4 11:07 | Buffalo Bills | FG | — | 20-21 |
| Q4 4:27 | Buffalo Bills | TD | Keon Coleman | 26-21 |
| Q4 1:50 | New England Patriots | TD | Efton Chism III | 26-29 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 344 | Total Yards | **412** |
| 253 | Passing Yards | **269** |
| 91 | Rushing Yards | **143** |
| 15 | First Downs | **25** |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| 7.5 | Offensive EPA | **13.8** |

**Model Report Card**

New England Patriots defied the model's 84% prediction for Buffalo Bills, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.4 but the actual margin was 3 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.29 (edge +6.3%) — model probability 83.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills -6.5 @ $1.85 (edge +7.9%) — model probability 61.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Buffalo Bills 14+ @ $2.95 (edge +6.0%) — model probability 39.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 15 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Buffalo Bills here: 84% to see off New England Patriots. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Buffalo Bills sit 83 ELO points clear, 1650 to 1567. Form leans Buffalo Bills' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for New England Patriots.

Buffalo Bills own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Buffalo Bills by 15.4, with the two sides combining for about 42. Buffalo Bills to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Buffalo Bills have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Buffalo Bills took the most recent meeting 35-31 in 2025 Week 15.

Buffalo Bills went 3-0 in 2026 so far, 2-0 at home, averaging 33.7 points for and 26.0 against.

New England Patriots went 1-2 in 2026 so far, 0-2 away, averaging 12.0 points for and 17.0 against.

Josh Allen starts under centre for Buffalo Bills, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with Sean McDermott and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

The market has Buffalo Bills favourites, Buffalo Bills $1.29 and New England Patriots $3.62, with the spread at Buffalo Bills -6.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Buffalo Bills 8 · New England Patriots 4 |
| Last meeting | Buffalo Bills 35-31 (2025) |
| Buffalo Bills 2026 so far | 3-0 · 2-0 home |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 33.7 for · 26.0 against |
| New England Patriots 2026 so far | 1-2 · 0-2 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 12.0 for · 17.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Josh Allen · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Sean McDermott · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | Buffalo Bills $1.29 · New England Patriots $3.62 |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -6.5 · total 48.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 31.6pts | Avg Score | 11.8pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 17.4pts |
| 4.6pts | Avg Margin | -5.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W | 31.6 |
| New England Patriots | CONF W · SB L · W1 L · W2 W · W3 L | 11.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | Buffalo Bills | 26 – 29 | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills 84% ✗ |
| 2025 | W15 | New England Patriots | 31 – 35 | Buffalo Bills | not priced |
| 2025 | W5 | Buffalo Bills | 20 – 23 | New England Patriots | not priced |
| 2024 | W18 | New England Patriots | 23 – 16 | Buffalo Bills | not priced |
| 2024 | W16 | Buffalo Bills | 24 – 21 | New England Patriots | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Highmark Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 6 in 3g | 12/10g (1·1·0·0·2·2·0·2·2·2) | 5/15g | 4/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.97 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| – | James Cook | RB | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·3·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/8g | 2/2g | 58% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Josh Palmer | WR | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/12g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Keleki Latu | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Keon Coleman | WR | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ty Johnson | RB | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/11g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eli Raridon | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Corey Kiner | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (1·2·3·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 8' 37' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Patriots: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Doubs, E.Chism

**Buffalo Bills** (5 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook III 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 57% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Josh Allen 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (8 rush · 0 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Dalton Kincaid — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Khalil Shakir — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Bills: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Coleman

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New England Patriots** (NE)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas · Rec yds | U 27.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 19.3) | ✓ landed |
| DeMario Douglas · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.02 | 59% (expects 1.4) | ✓ landed |
| Drake Maye · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.58 | 58% (expects 0.9) | ✗ missed |
| Drake Maye · Pass yds | U 231.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 207.7) | ✗ missed |
| Drake Maye · Rush yds | U 26.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 19.2) | ✗ missed |
| Hunter Henry · Rec yds | U 31.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 24.4) | ✗ missed |
| Hunter Henry · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.84 | 60% (expects 2.3) | ✗ missed |
| Mack Hollins · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 33.0) | ✗ missed |
| Mack Hollins · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.99 | 56% (expects 2.9) | ✓ landed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rush yds | O 32.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 39.1) | ✓ landed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rec yds | U 18.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 13.4) | ✗ missed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.06 | 56% (expects 1.8) | ✗ missed |
| Romeo Doubs · Rec yds | U 39.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 33.2) | ✗ missed |
| Romeo Doubs · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.72 | 58% (expects 2.6) | ✗ missed |

**Buffalo Bills** (BUF)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.90 | 66% (expects 2.6) | ✓ landed |
| Dalton Kincaid · Rec yds | U 50.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 40.1) | ✓ landed |
| DJ Moore · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.09 | 60% (expects 2.3) | ✓ landed |
| DJ Moore · Rec yds | U 47.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 31.2) | ✓ landed |
| James Cook III · Rush yds | U 87.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 85.7) | ✓ landed |
| James Cook III · Rec yds | O 6.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 15.3) | ✓ landed |
| James Cook III · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.73 | 50% (expects 1.5) | ✗ missed |
| Josh Allen · Rush yds | U 31.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 30.9) | ✓ landed |
| Josh Allen · Pass yds | U 242.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 224.5) | ✗ missed |
| Josh Allen · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.23 | 56% (expects 1.0) | ✓ landed |
| Keon Coleman · Rec yds | O 12.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 15.2) | ✓ landed |
| Keon Coleman · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.99 | 52% (expects 1.8) | ✓ landed |
| Khalil Shakir · Rec yds | U 39.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 33.9) | ✗ missed |
| Khalil Shakir · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.70 | 51% (expects 3.6) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Buffalo Bills 1650 · New England Patriots 1567 · ELO difference: 83 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 81 | 14 | Buffalo Bills +67 |
| Receiving Corps | 67 | 53 | Buffalo Bills +14 |
| Backfield | 56 | 42 | Buffalo Bills +14 |
| Pass Rush | 62 | 54 | Buffalo Bills +8 |
| Secondary | 53 | 66 | New England Patriots +13 |
| Special Teams | 71 | 46 | Buffalo Bills +25 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Buffalo Bills predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-buffalo-bills-v-new-england-patriots
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-04 20:47 UTC (latest tip update)