# Baltimore Ravens v Tennessee Titans — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 24 – 18 Tennessee Titans

_Baltimore Ravens swoop on a gallant Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 24 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 91% / Tennessee Titans 9% · M&T Bank Stadium · Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (3' Tipped ⚡), Zay Flowers (18' Tipped ⚡), Mark Andrews (27' Tipped ⚡) · Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard (10' Tipped ⚡), Wan'Dale Robinson (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 91% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 9% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 20.8 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 07:48 am_

Baltimore Ravens 24–18 Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 4 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model expected the Baltimore Ravens to beat the Tennessee Titans by 20.8 at M&T Bank Stadium. It gave them a 91% win probability and forecast a combined total of 44. What happened was a 24-18 grind that finished six points apart and 42 overall. The read held on the winner and the total. It broke on the margin.

The Ravens took an early lead in the first quarter. Derrick Henry scored a touchdown with 12:09 left, putting Baltimore up 6-0. The Titans responded quickly, with Tony Pollard scoring a touchdown with 5:56 left in the quarter, and the extra point levelling the score at 7-7 by the end of the first period. This close opening did not reflect the half-time score.

Baltimore extended their lead in the second quarter. Zay Flowers scored a touchdown with 12:16 left, making it 13-7. Mark Andrews added another touchdown with 3:32 remaining, pushing the score to 20-7. By half-time, the Ravens held a 24-7 advantage, suggesting a comfortable win was on track, aligning with the model's initial projection.

The Titans mounted a comeback in the second half, holding the Ravens scoreless after the main break. Tennessee added 11 points themselves. The third quarter ended with the score at 24-10, indicating a field goal had reduced the margin. Wan'Dale Robinson’s touchdown with 1:12 left in the fourth quarter brought the Titans within six points, making the final margin much tighter than the model had anticipated.

Statistically the Ravens were the stronger side across several key metrics. They recorded 397 total yards compared to Tennessee’s 307. Baltimore had 285 passing yards and 112 rushing yards, while the Titans managed 222 passing yards and 85 rushing yards. The Ravens also secured 19 first downs against Tennessee’s 15. Baltimore's offence was more efficient, posting an Offensive EPA of 8.4, significantly higher than the Titans' -4.8.

Turnovers proved to be a critical factor in the game. The Titans committed two turnovers, while the Ravens had none. This aligns with the model's pre-match assessment, which favoured the Ravens in positional strength ratings for quarterback, 57 to 48, and backfield, 88 to 50. The Titans did hold an advantage in the secondary, rated 62 to Baltimore's 56, which may have contributed to their ability to limit the Ravens' scoring in the second half.

Individually, Lamar Jackson completed 15 of 20 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns for the Ravens. For the Titans, Cam Ward threw 20 of 31 for 222 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Derrick Henry led all rushers with 73 yards from 23 carries, scoring one touchdown for the Ravens. Carnell Tate was the game’s top receiver, hauling in 9 catches for 145 yards.

Coming into the match, Baltimore had stronger recent form, with three wins in their last five games and an average winning margin of 5.8 points. The Titans, conversely, had lost all five of their previous matches, with an average losing margin of -12.8 points. This form indicated a clear advantage for the Ravens, which the final result confirmed, despite the closer margin than predicted.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 18 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:09 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Derrick Henry | 7-0 |
| Q1 5:56 | Tennessee Titans | TD | Tony Pollard | 7-7 |
| Q2 12:16 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Zay Flowers | 14-7 |
| Q2 3:32 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Mark Andrews | 21-7 |
| Q2 0:00 | Baltimore Ravens | FG | — | 24-7 |
| Q3 6:52 | Tennessee Titans | FG | — | 24-10 |
| Q4 1:12 | Tennessee Titans | TD | Wan'Dale Robinson | 24-18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **397** | Total Yards | 307 |
| **285** | Passing Yards | 222 |
| **112** | Rushing Yards | 85 |
| **19** | First Downs | 15 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| **8.4** | Offensive EPA | -4.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 91% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 20.8 but the actual margin was 6 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.13 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 90.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.0%) — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 14+ @ $2.05 (edge +7.5%) — model probability 56.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 21 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 91% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 248 ELO points clear, 1552 to 1304. Form leans Baltimore Ravens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Tennessee Titans.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 20.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Baltimore Ravens taking the most recent 24-16 in 2023 Week 6.

Baltimore Ravens went 2-1 in 2026 so far, 0-1 at home, averaging 30.7 points for and 26.0 against.

Tennessee Titans went 0-3 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 12.3 points for and 19.7 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Cam Ward for Tennessee Titans, with Jesse Minter and Robert Saleh calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.13 and Tennessee Titans $6.05, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -11.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Baltimore Ravens 6 · Tennessee Titans 6 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 24-16 (2023) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2026 so far | 2-1 · 0-1 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 30.7 for · 26.0 against |
| Tennessee Titans 2026 so far | 0-3 · 0-1 away |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 12.3 for · 19.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Cam Ward |
| Head coaches | Jesse Minter · Robert Saleh |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.13 · Tennessee Titans $6.05 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -11.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 31.4pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 5.8pts | Avg Margin | -12.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W17 W · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W | 31.4 |
| Tennessee Titans | W17 L · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | Baltimore Ravens | 24 – 18 | Tennessee Titans | Baltimore Ravens 91% ✓ |
| 2023 | W6 | Tennessee Titans | 16 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens | not priced |
| 2020 | W18 | Tennessee Titans | 13 – 20 | Baltimore Ravens | not priced |
| 2020 | W11 | Baltimore Ravens | 24 – 30 | Tennessee Titans | not priced |
| 2019 | WC | Baltimore Ravens | 12 – 28 | Tennessee Titans | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 6 in 3g | 15/10g (2·1·0·0·2·4·0·3·1·2) | 0/0g | 23/21g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.51 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.25 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 21/63g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Matthew Hibner | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/37g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 7/27g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Sarratt | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Josh Cuevas | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/45g | 20% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 28/66g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Tyler Huntley | QB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/16g | 15% | — | — |

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 22% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $34.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Calvin Ridley | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Carnell Tate | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nicholas Singleton | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tennessee Titans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 22% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Titans: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

**Baltimore Ravens** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 10 TDs in last 5 (10 rush · 0 pass) · model 62% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 4 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Lamar Jackson — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1552 · Tennessee Titans 1304 · ELO difference: 248 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | Tennessee Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 57 | 48 | Baltimore Ravens +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 52 | Baltimore Ravens +5 |
| Backfield | 88 | 50 | Baltimore Ravens +38 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 62 | Tennessee Titans +6 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 59 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tennessee Titans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 91%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 21 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 20:48 UTC (latest tip update)