# Washington Commanders v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Washington Commanders 33 – 31 Seattle Seahawks

_Washington Commanders overpower Seattle Seahawks in a tight one._

Half time: 17 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Washington Commanders 39% / Seattle Seahawks 61% · Northwest Stadium · Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Washington Commanders: Rachaad White (6'), Treylon Burks (24'), Terry McLaurin (35' Tipped ⚡), Kain Medrano (57') · Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (17' Tipped ⚡), Eric Saubert (39'), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (49' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Kupp (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 61% | Lost |
| Washington Commanders | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 06:40 am_

Washington Commanders 33–31 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 3 at Northwest Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Washington Commanders turned the game with a two-touchdown burst either side of half-time and held on for a 33-31 win over the Seattle Seahawks at Northwest Stadium. The Commanders led 17-10 at the break. They pushed the margin to 13 points early in the third quarter. Seattle mounted a late charge but fell two points short in a contest that stayed inside one score to the end.

Rachaad White put the Commanders on the scoreboard first with 9:08 remaining in the first quarter, giving Washington a 6-0 lead. Jaxon Smith-Njigba answered for Seattle with 13:27 left in the second quarter, bringing the score to 7-6. Treylon Burks then scored for Washington with 6:47 left in the second quarter, making it 13-7. Terry McLaurin added another touchdown for Washington with 10:43 remaining in the third quarter. These two scores moved the game from 7-6 to 23-10, establishing a lead for the Commanders that held through the final whistle.

Seattle outgained Washington significantly, posting 437 total yards to Washington's 265. Their passing game was particularly effective, with 393 passing yards compared to Washington's 183. This translated to more first downs for the Seahawks, 25 to 15. Washington's rushing game recorded 82 yards, while Seattle had 44 rushing yards.

The difference in the game came down to turnovers. Seattle gave up three possessions, while Washington played without any turnovers. This proved critical, particularly given the tight final margin. Seattle’s positional strengths in receiving corps, rated 54 against Washington's 50, and secondary, rated 61 against Washington's 57, were evident in their yardage figures, but the turnovers undermined their offensive production. Washington's backfield was rated 57 against Seattle's 49, and their pass rush was rated 64 against Seattle's 59.

Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a standout, with two touchdowns. He was one of four different scorers for Seattle, alongside Cooper Kupp and Eric Saubert. Washington's touchdowns came from four different players as well: Kain Medrano, Rachaad White, Terry McLaurin, and Treylon Burks.

Alphr's model had Seattle as a 61% favourite, predicting a 2.1-point margin for the Seahawks. The actual two-point result aligned closely with the predicted margin, but the outcome was an upset. The combined total of 64 points was also significantly higher than the model's predicted 43. Seattle's recent form, coming into the game with five straight wins and an average winning margin of 16.4 points, suggested a dominant performance that did not materialise. Washington, by contrast, had only one win from their last five games, with an average losing margin of six points.

This game demonstrated that even when a team controls yardage and first downs, giving up turnovers can cost them a win. Washington's ability to capitalise on Seattle's mistakes, particularly in that crucial period around half-time, secured the narrow victory.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 7 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 33 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:08 | Washington Commanders | TD | Rachaad White | 7-0 |
| Q2 13:27 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7-7 |
| Q2 6:47 | Washington Commanders | TD | Treylon Burks | 14-7 |
| Q2 0:52 | Seattle Seahawks | FG | — | 14-10 |
| Q2 0:00 | Washington Commanders | FG | — | 17-10 |
| Q3 10:43 | Washington Commanders | TD | Terry McLaurin | 24-10 |
| Q3 6:05 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Eric Saubert | 24-17 |
| Q4 11:53 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 24-24 |
| Q4 4:34 | Washington Commanders | FG | — | 27-24 |
| Q4 3:57 | Washington Commanders | TD | Kain Medrano | 33-24 |
| Q4 2:51 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Cooper Kupp | 33-31 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 265 | Total Yards | **437** |
| 183 | Passing Yards | **393** |
| **82** | Rushing Yards | 44 |
| 15 | First Downs | **25** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| -6.6 | Offensive EPA | **-3** |

**Model Report Card**

Washington Commanders defied the model's 61% prediction for Seattle Seahawks, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 64 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.29 (edge -16.3%) — model probability 61.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +7.5 @ $1.80 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 39.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Seattle Seahawks are the call at 61%, but Washington Commanders stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 271 ELO points clear, 1696 to 1425. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Washington Commanders.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Seattle Seahawks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Seattle Seahawks have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 38-14 in 2025 Week 9.

Washington Commanders went 0-2 in 2026 so far, 0-0 at home, averaging 21.0 points for and 30.5 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 2-0 in 2026 so far, 1-0 away, averaging 22.0 points for and 8.5 against.

Jayden Daniels starts under centre for Washington Commanders, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Dan Quinn and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Washington Commanders $3.66 and Seattle Seahawks $1.29, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -7.5 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Washington Commanders 5 · Seattle Seahawks 7 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 38-14 (2025) |
| Washington Commanders 2026 so far | 0-2 · 0-0 home |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 21.0 for · 30.5 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 22.0 for · 8.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jayden Daniels · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Dan Quinn · Mike Macdonald |
| Market | Washington Commanders $3.66 · Seattle Seahawks $1.29 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 · total 40.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 21.4pts | Avg Score | 29.0pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 12.6pts |
| -6.0pts | Avg Margin | 16.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L | 21.4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | DIV W · CONF W · SB W · W1 W · W2 W | 29.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Washington Commanders | 33 – 31 | Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks 61% ✗ |
| 2025 | W9 | Washington Commanders | 14 – 38 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |
| 2023 | W10 | Seattle Seahawks | 29 – 26 | Washington Commanders | not priced |
| 2021 | W12 | Washington Commanders | 17 – 15 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |
| 2020 | W15 | Washington Commanders | 15 – 20 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Northwest Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Antonio Williams | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ben Sinnott | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Colson Yankoff | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | John Bates | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke McCaffrey | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Mariota | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Terry McLaurin | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.85 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| – | Treylon Burks | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 24' |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 4 in 2g | 9/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·3) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 49' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | George Holani | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jadarian Price | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | no games | 6/8g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 50% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Jadarian Price 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 2 · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Emanuel Wilson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: E.Saubert, C.Kupp

**Washington Commanders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Terry McLaurin 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 28% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.White, T.Burks, K.Medrano

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Seattle Seahawks** (SEA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.80 | 60% (expects 2.0) | ✗ missed |
| AJ Barner · Rec yds | U 22.5 | $1.90 | 73% (expects 13.7) | ✗ missed |
| Cooper Kupp · Rec yds | O 21.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 26.4) | ✓ landed |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec yds | U 91.5 | $1.88 | 67% (expects 83.2) | ✗ missed |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec | U 6.5 | $2.10 | 58% (expects 6.3) | ✗ missed |
| Rashid Shaheed · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.85 | 73% (expects 18.3) | ✓ landed |

**Washington Commanders** (WAS)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Rec | O 0.5 | $1.75 | 63% (expects 0.8) | ✓ landed |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Rush yds | U 35.5 | $1.95 | 61% (expects 34.8) | ✗ missed |
| Marcus Mariota · Pass TDs | O 0.5 | $1.44 | 75% (expects 0.9) | ✓ landed |
| Marcus Mariota · Pass yds | U 170.5 | $1.95 | 56% (expects 159.7) | ✗ missed |
| Marcus Mariota · Rush yds | U 21.5 | $1.88 | 63% (expects 14.3) | ✓ landed |
| Rachaad White · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.72 | 74% (expects 1.7) | ✓ landed |
| Rachaad White · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.85 | 70% (expects 9.1) | ✓ landed |
| Rachaad White · Rush yds | O 20.5 | $1.95 | 60% (expects 25.3) | ✓ landed |
| Stefon Diggs · Rec yds | U 36.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 35.7) | ✓ landed |
| Stefon Diggs · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 3.5) | ✗ missed |
| Terry McLaurin · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.82 | 58% (expects 3.4) | ✗ missed |
| Terry McLaurin · Rec yds | O 40.5 | $1.80 | 55% (expects 51.4) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Washington Commanders 1425 · Seattle Seahawks 1696 · ELO difference: 270 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Washington Commanders | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 43 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 54 | Even |
| Backfield | 57 | 49 | Washington Commanders +8 |
| Pass Rush | 64 | 59 | Washington Commanders +5 |
| Secondary | 57 | 61 | Even |
| Special Teams | 39 | 73 | Seattle Seahawks +34 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 20:40 UTC (latest tip update)