# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Minnesota Vikings?

Alphr's NFL model rates Tampa Bay Buccaneers a narrow 51% favourite over Minnesota Vikings in Week 3 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 in a low-scoring game (38 total, under the 42.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** Minnesota Vikings are stronger on paper, but Pass Rush tips the model to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Minnesota Vikings
Mon, 28 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · Raymond James Stadium · Week 3

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $2.05 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 50.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.7%) — model probability 55.3%
- **Margin Band:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-13 @ $2.55 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 34.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 3 at Raymond James Stadium, and the model can barely split them: Tampa Bay Buccaneers just edge it. Below: the read, the win split and where the value sits.

The model gives this one to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but only just: 51% against 49% for the Minnesota Vikings. That's about as line ball as it gets, and worth saying up front because the numbers underneath do not exactly agree with the pick.

Start with the ELO gap, because it is not small. Minnesota Vikings sit at 1595, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 1443. That's 152 points clear in the Vikings' favour, the kind of gap that normally does the talking. It does not here. The model is backing Tampa Bay Buccaneers against that gap, leaning instead on Pass Rush, where Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 63 to Minnesota Vikings' 58. Everywhere else on the field, Minnesota Vikings hold the ratings edge: Secondary 60 to 53, Receiving Corps 61 to 56, Backfield 53 to 48, Quarterback 50 to 47. Even Special Teams, 67 to 66, tips slightly Minnesota's way.

The history is lopsided in a way the current form is not. Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 9 of the last 12 meetings between these two. The most recent, though, went to Minnesota Vikings: 20-17 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 1 of 2023. Old dominance, recent hiccup.

Form right now is not close. Minnesota Vikings have won 5 straight, averaging 20.6 points scored and just 10.2 conceded, a margin of plus 10.4 a game. Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone 1-4 in that same stretch, scoring 19.8 but leaking 22.6, a margin of minus 2.8. Season to date it is the same story: Minnesota Vikings sit 2-0, 1-0 on the road, averaging 24.0 for and just 12.5 against. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-2, 0-1 at home, conceding 28.0 a game. If you are picking on trajectory alone, this is not close. The model knows that and is picking Tampa Bay Buccaneers anyway.

Both sides come in on 7 days' rest, so no edge there, and the model calls the quarterback battle even too: Baker Mayfield for Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Kyler Murray for Minnesota Vikings. Todd Bowles and Kevin O'Connell are the two men patrolling the sidelines. Nothing in the injury or milestone column has been flagged for this one.

Put a score shape on it and the model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning by 2.4, with the total sitting around 38. The market's total is up at 44.5, so the model is leaning under that by a decent margin, and its own play is Under 42.5 at $1.96. On the spread, it likes Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 at $1.90, without pricing an edge into either.

On the head-to-head market, Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit at $1.80 and Minnesota Vikings at $2.05, with Tampa Bay Buccaneers the market's favourite too. The model's own number on Tampa Bay Buccaneers comes out to $2.05 in the market with a supposed edge, and it is calling a 1.8% edge on that price. Modest, not nothing.

In the try-scorer markets, if you can call them that here, Bucky Irving is the model's most fancied at $2.25 with a 45% chance of finding paydirt anytime, ahead of Aaron Jones Sr. at $1.91 (34%) and Justin Jefferson at $2.25 (27%). For first scorer, Bucky Irving again leads the model's list at $6.60 with a 10% shot, just ahead of Aaron Jones Sr. at $6.00 (8%).

So it nets out as a genuine coin flip that the ratings and the recent form both quietly disagree with. Minnesota Vikings arrive rated higher, in better shape, and riding five straight wins. For Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get this done, the pass rush has to be the difference it is rated to be, and the defence has to hold up a lot better than its last five games suggest. The model's happy to back that story at 51%. Whether you are is your business.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 · Minnesota Vikings 3 |
| Last meeting | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17 (2023) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 so far | 0-2 · 0-1 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 23.0 for · 28.0 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 24.0 for · 12.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Kyler Murray |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.80 · Minnesota Vikings $2.05 |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 · total 44.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 10.2pts |
| -2.8pts | Avg Margin | 10.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L | 19.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | W1 | Minnesota Vikings | 17 – 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2020 | W14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 – 14 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2017 | W3 | Minnesota Vikings | 34 – 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2014 | W8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13 – 19 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2012 | W8 | Minnesota Vikings | 17 – 36 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/29g | 14% | — |
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 8/17g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 45% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.60 AI 10% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 24% | — |
| – | Bauer Sharp | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/32g | 14% | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 22/61g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 25% Market priced |
| – | Jalen McMillan | WR | no games | 7/10g (2·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/10g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.50 AI 26% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $29.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 3% | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 23% Market priced |
| – | Ko Kieft | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/17g | 8% | — |
| – | Payne Durham | TE | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/15g | 12% | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | no games | 7/10g (1·0·3·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/19g | 28% | — |
| – | Ted Hurst III | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 22% | — |

**Minnesota Vikings** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 27% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Aaron Jones Sr. | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 34% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — |
| – | DeeJay Dallas | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Demond Claiborne | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Gavin Bartholomew | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 36% | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — |
| – | Max Bredeson | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Aaron Jones Sr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 34%
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27%
- Rest of the Vikings: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 45%
- ⚡ Jalen McMillan 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 4 · model 26%
- ⚡ Chris Godwin Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25%
- ⚡ Kenny Gainwell — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · new club
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Minnesota Vikings** (MIN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rec yds | U 17.5 | $1.88 | 72% (expects 9.4) | market |
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.15 | 64% (expects 1.8) | market |
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rush yds | U 71.5 | $1.85 | 79% (expects 49.7) | market |
| Jordan Addison · Rec yds | U 32.5 | $1.85 | 66% (expects 26.7) | market |
| Jordan Addison · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.82 | 60% (expects 2.0) | market |
| Jordan Addison · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.22 | 57% (expects -1.0) | market |
| Josh Oliver · Rec yds | U 10.5 | $1.75 | 51% (expects 11.4) | market |
| Josh Oliver · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.58 | 65% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Justin Jefferson · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.20 | 57% (expects -0.9) | market |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec yds | U 72.5 | $1.85 | 77% (expects 49.7) | market |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.10 | 75% (expects 4.1) | market |
| T.J. Hockenson · Rec yds | U 32.5 | $1.85 | 75% (expects 19.1) | market |
| T.J. Hockenson · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.08 | 67% (expects 2.7) | market |

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (TB)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield · Pass yds | U 224.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 213.5) | market |
| Baker Mayfield · Rush yds | U 20.5 | $1.72 | 54% (expects 18.9) | market |
| Baker Mayfield · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.68 | 64% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Bucky Irving · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.02 | 50% (expects 2.5) | market |
| Bucky Irving · Rec yds | O 17.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 20.4) | market |
| Bucky Irving · Rush yds | U 47.5 | $1.90 | 50% (expects 57.8) | market |
| Cade Otton · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 57% (expects 3.5) | market |
| Cade Otton · Rec yds | U 32.5 | $1.88 | 65% (expects 27.1) | market |
| Chris Godwin Jr. · Rec yds | U 32.5 | $1.85 | 51% (expects 36.7) | market |
| Chris Godwin Jr. · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.55 | 69% (expects 3.9) | market |
| Emeka Egbuka · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.90 | 68% (expects 2.6) | market |
| Emeka Egbuka · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.90 | 63% (expects 42.0) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Minnesota Vikings hold the ELO advantage (1595 vs 1443), but the market favours Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@1.80). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1443 · Minnesota Vikings 1595 · ELO difference: 152 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 50 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 61 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |
| Backfield | 48 | 53 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |
| Pass Rush | 63 | 58 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 |
| Secondary | 53 | 60 | Minnesota Vikings +7 |
| Special Teams | 66 | 67 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, around 20–18 (total ~38 — under the 42.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 42.5 line (model projects 38).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-23 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)