# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – 23 Minnesota Vikings

_Minnesota Vikings hold off a fast-finishing Tampa Bay Buccaneers._

Half time: 10 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51% / Minnesota Vikings 49% · Raymond James Stadium · Mon, 28 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ted Hurst III (9') · Minnesota Vikings: Myles Price (7'), Jordan Addison (26')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 51% | Lost |
| Minnesota Vikings | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.4 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 09:55 am_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–23 Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 3 at Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought sharply different ideas to Raymond James Stadium. One side chased raw metres and the other prioritised ball control and patience. The result fell out of that contrast, with Minnesota Vikings winning 23-16 despite finishing with 246 total yards to Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 274.

Minnesota Vikings opened with a touchdown to Myles Price at 8:43 in the first quarter for a 9-0 lead. Tampa Bay Buccaneers answered six minutes later when Ted Hurst III scored, making it 6-10, then 7-10 at the end of the first. Jordan Addison added another touchdown for Minnesota Vikings at 4:11 in the second, stretching the margin to 16-10 before the half closed at 17-10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept pushing for yards through the air and on the ground yet could not turn volume into points. They posted 217 passing yards and 57 rushing yards against Minnesota Vikings' 168 passing yards and 78 rushing yards. First downs finished even at 9-9, but Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost the turnover battle 2-1 and that showed on the scoreboard.

Minnesota Vikings' pass rush got home 6 times to Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 3. The pressure told. Baker Mayfield finished 17-of-34 for 217 yards, 1 TD and 1 pick. Kyler Murray went 15-of-29 for 168 yards, also with 1 TD and 1 pick. Aaron Jones led all rushers with 58 yards on 17 carries.

Jordan Addison proved the game's decisive target, hauling in 5 catches for 90 yards and 1 TD. Those plays kept Minnesota Vikings in front through a third quarter that ended 17-13 and on to the final 23-16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers added field goals but never solved the turnover and sack issues that stalled their ambition.

The Alphr model had rated Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1443 and Minnesota Vikings 1595, giving the home side a 51% win probability and an expected margin of 2.4. The actual seven-point gap was reasonable against that read. The combined total prediction of 38 landed close to the actual 39, within 1 point. Overall the model went 1/3 on this match, though the under 42.5 total call was correct.

Positional strength ratings going in favoured Minnesota Vikings at quarterback 50 to 47, receiving corps 61 to 56, backfield 53 to 48 and secondary 60 to 53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers held the edge in pass rush 63 to 58 and special teams 66 to 67. Recent form told the same story. Minnesota Vikings arrived on a WWWWW run, averaging 20.6 points scored and 10.2 conceded across their last five. Tampa Bay Buccaneers sat at 1 win from 5, LLWLL, with averages of 19.8 scored and 22.6 conceded. The gap in defensive output proved decisive once more.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 23 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:20 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 0-3 |
| Q1 8:43 | Minnesota Vikings | TD | Myles Price | 0-10 |
| Q1 6:44 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TD | Ted Hurst III | 7-10 |
| Q2 5:33 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | FG | — | 10-10 |
| Q2 4:11 | Minnesota Vikings | TD | Jordan Addison | 10-17 |
| Q3 7:12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | FG | — | 13-17 |
| Q4 9:02 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | FG | — | 16-17 |
| Q4 3:10 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 16-20 |
| Q4 0:33 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 16-23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| **274** | Total Yards | 246 |
| **217** | Passing Yards | 168 |
| 57 | Rushing Yards | **78** |
| 9 | First Downs | 9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **6** |
| -15.7 | Offensive EPA | **-14.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Minnesota Vikings defied the model's 51% prediction for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.4 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 39, within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $2.05 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 50.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.7%) — model probability 55.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-13 @ $2.55 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 34.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings. The model can't split them, landing on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Minnesota Vikings sit 152 ELO points clear, 1595 to 1443, so the model is backing Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the ratings gap. Form leans Minnesota Vikings' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

On paper Minnesota Vikings shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which says Pass Rush carry the most weight. The margin model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.4, with the two sides combining for about 38. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the most recent meeting 20-17 in 2023 Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 0-2 in 2026 so far, 0-1 at home, averaging 23.0 points for and 28.0 against.

Minnesota Vikings went 2-0 in 2026 so far, 1-0 away, averaging 24.0 points for and 12.5 against.

Baker Mayfield starts under centre for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kyler Murray for Minnesota Vikings, with Todd Bowles and Kevin O'Connell calling the shots.

The market has Minnesota Vikings favourites, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.05 and Minnesota Vikings $1.80, with the spread at Minnesota Vikings -1.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 · Minnesota Vikings 3 |
| Last meeting | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17 (2023) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 so far | 0-2 · 0-1 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 23.0 for · 28.0 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 24.0 for · 12.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Kyler Murray |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.05 · Minnesota Vikings $1.80 |
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 · total 42.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 20.6pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 10.2pts |
| -2.8pts | Avg Margin | 10.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L | 19.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W | 20.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 – 23 | Minnesota Vikings | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51% ✗ |
| 2023 | W1 | Minnesota Vikings | 17 – 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | not priced |
| 2020 | W14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 – 14 | Minnesota Vikings | not priced |
| 2017 | W3 | Minnesota Vikings | 34 – 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | not priced |
| 2014 | W8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13 – 19 | Minnesota Vikings | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/29g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 8/17g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.60 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bauer Sharp | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/32g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 22/61g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jalen McMillan | WR | no games | 7/10g (2·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/10g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.50 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $29.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jalon Daniels | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ko Kieft | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/17g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Payne Durham | TE | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/15g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Ted Hurst III | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 22% | — | — |

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | DeeJay Dallas | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Demond Claiborne | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Max Bredeson | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Aaron Jones Sr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Price, J.Addison

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Jalen McMillan 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 4 · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Godwin Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Kenny Gainwell — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Hurst

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Minnesota Vikings** (MIN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rec yds | U 17.5 | $1.88 | 72% (expects 9.4) | ✗ missed |
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.15 | 64% (expects 1.8) | ✗ missed |
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rush yds | U 71.5 | $1.85 | 79% (expects 49.7) | ✓ landed |
| Jauan Jennings · Rec yds | O 10.5 | $1.80 | 78% (expects 25.1) | ✗ missed |
| Jauan Jennings · Rec | O 0.5 | $1.48 | 90% (expects 2.2) | ✓ landed |
| Jordan Addison · Rec yds | U 32.5 | $1.85 | 66% (expects 26.7) | ✗ missed |
| Jordan Addison · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.82 | 60% (expects 2.0) | ✗ missed |
| Jordan Addison · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.22 | 57% (expects -1.0) | ✓ landed |
| Josh Oliver · Rec yds | U 10.5 | $1.75 | 51% (expects 11.4) | — |
| Josh Oliver · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.58 | 65% (expects 1.1) | — |
| Justin Jefferson · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.20 | 57% (expects -0.9) | ✓ landed |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec yds | U 72.5 | $1.85 | 77% (expects 49.7) | ✓ landed |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.10 | 75% (expects 4.1) | ✓ landed |
| Kyler Murray · Rush yds | U 16.5 | $1.90 | 52% (expects 15.6) | ✗ missed |

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (TB)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield · Pass yds | U 224.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 213.5) | ✓ landed |
| Baker Mayfield · Rush yds | U 20.5 | $1.72 | 54% (expects 18.9) | ✓ landed |
| Baker Mayfield · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.68 | 64% (expects 1.1) | ✓ landed |
| Bucky Irving · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.02 | 50% (expects 2.5) | ✓ landed |
| Bucky Irving · Rec yds | O 17.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 20.4) | ✗ missed |
| Bucky Irving · Rush yds | U 47.5 | $1.90 | 50% (expects 57.8) | ✓ landed |
| Cade Otton · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 57% (expects 3.5) | ✓ landed |
| Cade Otton · Rec yds | U 32.5 | $1.88 | 65% (expects 27.1) | ✗ missed |
| Chris Godwin Jr. · Rec yds | U 32.5 | $1.85 | 51% (expects 36.7) | ✓ landed |
| Chris Godwin Jr. · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.55 | 69% (expects 3.9) | ✓ landed |
| Emeka Egbuka · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.90 | 68% (expects 2.6) | ✗ missed |
| Emeka Egbuka · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.90 | 63% (expects 42.0) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1443 · Minnesota Vikings 1595 · ELO difference: 152 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 50 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 61 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |
| Backfield | 48 | 53 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |
| Pass Rush | 63 | 58 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 |
| Secondary | 53 | 60 | Minnesota Vikings +7 |
| Special Teams | 66 | 67 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 23:55 UTC (latest tip update)