# San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 36 – 30 Arizona Cardinals

_San Francisco 49ers strike gold against a gallant Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 17 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 81% / Arizona Cardinals 19% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 28 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: B. yards (7'), Mike Evans (16' Tipped ⚡), Christian McCaffrey (34' Tipped ⚡), George Kittle (52' Tipped ⚡), George Kittle (59' Tipped ⚡) · Arizona Cardinals: Michael Wilson (42'), Jeremiyah Love (47' Tipped ⚡), Jacoby Brissett (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 81% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.4 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 09:55 am_

San Francisco 49ers 36–30 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 3 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Alphr model expected the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Arizona Cardinals by 11.4 at Levi's Stadium and land a combined total of 46. What arrived was a 36-30 result and 66 points overall, 20 higher than forecast. The 49ers won at the 81 per cent probability the model assigned them, yet the six-point margin and that inflated total showed where the read held and where it broke.

San Francisco led for most of the night, which matched the pre-match numbers. They scored first in the first quarter through B. yards to lead 7-0. Mike Evans added another in the second quarter and they reached half-time at 17-6.

Christian McCaffrey pushed the advantage to 23-6 early in the third. That early control rested on offensive efficiency. The 49ers finished with an Offensive EPA of 22.6 against Arizona's 12.4, a gap of 10.2 expected points. They also outgained the Cardinals 437 yards to 373 and held rushing superiority of 140 to 93. Their backfield rating of 58 against Arizona's 55 helped explain the edge.

Arizona answered late in the third when Michael Wilson scored to make it 23-12. Jeremiyah Love narrowed the gap further in the fourth quarter to 23-19. The Cardinals' receiving corps, rated 64 to San Francisco's 57, began to surface in those moments.

George Kittle replied for the 49ers with 8:42 left to restore breathing space at 29-20. Jacoby Brissett then crossed for Arizona at the 2:51 mark, trimming the lead to 29-26. The late exchange of scores explained why the game sailed 20 points past the model's 46 projection.

Kittle sealed matters with his second touchdown at the 1:31 mark, stretching the score to 35-27. Arizona added a late field goal but could not close the gap. The final margin sat at six points, tighter than the 11.4 the model had forecast.

Arizona's passing attack produced 280 yards while San Francisco managed 297. Jacoby Brissett went 38-of-52 for two touchdowns. Michael Wilson led all receivers with 11 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. Jeremiyah Love topped the rushing stats with 90 yards on 21 carries. The Cardinals generated zero sacks compared with San Francisco's two, so pressure remained limited.

Recent form backed the model's confidence in a San Francisco win. The 49ers carried three wins from their last five, against Arizona's one, an average margin of 0.2 points compared with Arizona's -11.8. They conceded 18.6 points a game lately while the Cardinals leaked 29. The 81 per cent win probability proved sound, even if the exact 11.4 spread and 46 total did not survive contact with the actual 36-30, 66-point contest.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 36 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 30 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:26 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Brock Purdy complete pass to Mike Evans for 2 yards, lateral to Deebo Samuel for 80 yards | 7-0 |
| Q2 14:55 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Mike Evans | 14-0 |
| Q2 3:03 | Arizona Cardinals | FG | — | 14-3 |
| Q2 0:23 | Arizona Cardinals | FG | — | 14-6 |
| Q2 0:00 | San Francisco 49ers | FG | — | 17-6 |
| Q3 11:07 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Christian McCaffrey | 23-6 |
| Q3 3:02 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Michael Wilson | 23-13 |
| Q4 13:06 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Jeremiyah Love | 23-20 |
| Q4 8:42 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | George Kittle | 29-20 |
| Q4 2:51 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Jacoby Brissett | 29-27 |
| Q4 1:31 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | George Kittle | 36-27 |
| Q4 0:34 | Arizona Cardinals | FG | — | 36-30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| **437** | Total Yards | 373 |
| **297** | Passing Yards | 280 |
| **140** | Rushing Yards | 93 |
| 21 | First Downs | **24** |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **22.6** | Offensive EPA | 12.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted San Francisco 49ers to win at 81% probability. The predicted margin of 11.4 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 66 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.20 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 81.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -8.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 53.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** San Francisco 49ers 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 38.8% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 11 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on San Francisco 49ers here: 81% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: San Francisco 49ers sit 192 ELO points clear, 1607 to 1414. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Arizona Cardinals.

San Francisco 49ers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has San Francisco 49ers by 11.4, with the two sides combining for about 46. San Francisco 49ers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and San Francisco 49ers took the most recent meeting 41-22 in 2025 Week 11.

San Francisco 49ers went 2-0 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 31.0 points for and 10.0 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 away, averaging 16.5 points for and 22.5 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Jacoby Brissett for Arizona Cardinals, with Kyle Shanahan and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, San Francisco 49ers $1.20 and Arizona Cardinals $4.60, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -8.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | San Francisco 49ers 7 · Arizona Cardinals 5 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 41-22 (2025) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 31.0 for · 10.0 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 16.5 for · 22.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Jacoby Brissett |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $1.20 · Arizona Cardinals $4.60 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -8.5 · total 47.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 18.6pts | Avg Conceded | 29.0pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | -11.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W18 L · WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 W | 18.8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | San Francisco 49ers | 36 – 30 | Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco 49ers 81% ✓ |
| 2025 | W11 | Arizona Cardinals | 22 – 41 | San Francisco 49ers | not priced |
| 2025 | W3 | San Francisco 49ers | 16 – 15 | Arizona Cardinals | not priced |
| 2024 | W18 | Arizona Cardinals | 47 – 24 | San Francisco 49ers | not priced |
| 2024 | W5 | San Francisco 49ers | 23 – 24 | Arizona Cardinals | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (1·1·1·2·1·0·2·0·0·2) | 13/9g | 31/30g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.44 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.25 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 11/31g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 21/50g | 32% | — | — |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 9/15g | 28/67g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' 59' |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/16g | 11/65g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Mike Evans | WR | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 3/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Cowing | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Watkins | WR | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kaelon Black | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | KhaDarel Hodge | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jeremiyah Love | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Jalen Brooks | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/35g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 32% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Jeremiyah Love — 1 TD in last 2 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Wilson, J.Brissett

**San Francisco 49ers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 66% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ George Kittle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Mike Evans 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · new club · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.yards

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Arizona Cardinals** (ARI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett · Pass yds | U 225.5 | $1.88 | 61% (expects 207.2) | ✗ missed |
| Jacoby Brissett · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.58 | 64% (expects 1.0) | ✗ missed |
| Jacoby Brissett · Rush yds | O 6.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 9.6) | ✗ missed |
| Jeremiyah Love · Rush yds | U 37.5 | $1.88 | 60% (expects 32.3) | ✗ missed |
| Jeremiyah Love · Rec yds | U 17.5 | $1.88 | 74% (expects 7.9) | ✗ missed |
| Jeremiyah Love · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.02 | 60% (expects 2.0) | ✗ missed |
| Kendrick Bourne · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.02 | 77% (expects 1.5) | ✓ landed |
| Kendrick Bourne · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.85 | 57% (expects 23.2) | ✓ landed |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. · Rec yds | O 25.5 | $1.85 | 52% (expects 33.8) | ✓ landed |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.50 | 60% (expects 2.1) | ✓ landed |
| Michael Wilson · Rec yds | O 44.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 50.7) | ✓ landed |
| Michael Wilson · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.59 | 56% (expects 4.2) | ✓ landed |
| Trey McBride · Rec yds | U 67.5 | $1.88 | 67% (expects 58.7) | ✗ missed |
| Trey McBride · Rec | U 7.5 | $1.76 | 63% (expects 7.0) | ✗ missed |

**San Francisco 49ers** (SF)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy · Rush yds | U 17.5 | $1.85 | 52% (expects 17.0) | ✗ missed |
| Brock Purdy · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.72 | 67% (expects 1.8) | ✓ landed |
| Brock Purdy · Pass yds | U 237.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 254.2) | ✗ missed |
| Christian McCaffrey · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.85 | 59% (expects 4.2) | ✓ landed |
| Christian McCaffrey · Rush yds | O 54.5 | $1.88 | 59% (expects 70.6) | ✓ landed |
| Christian McCaffrey · Rec yds | U 37.5 | $1.85 | 62% (expects 35.1) | ✗ missed |
| Deebo Samuel · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.85 | 73% (expects 30.4) | ✗ missed |
| Deebo Samuel · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.90 | 59% (expects 3.3) | ✓ landed |
| George Kittle · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.90 | 56% (expects 42.1) | ✗ missed |
| George Kittle · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.66 | 57% (expects 4.2) | ✓ landed |
| Mike Evans · Rec yds | U 55.5 | $1.85 | 65% (expects 48.9) | ✓ landed |
| Mike Evans · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.62 | 63% (expects 3.9) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1607 · Arizona Cardinals 1414 · ELO difference: 192 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 52 | 50 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 64 | Arizona Cardinals +7 |
| Backfield | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 48 | Even |
| Secondary | 54 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 55 | 64 | Arizona Cardinals +9 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-san-francisco-49ers-v-arizona-cardinals
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-27 23:55 UTC (latest tip update)