# New Orleans Saints v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New Orleans Saints 27 – 35 Las Vegas Raiders

_Las Vegas Raiders ransack New Orleans Saints._

Half time: 13 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New Orleans Saints 53% / Las Vegas Raiders 47% · Caesars Superdome · Mon, 28 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — New Orleans Saints: Juwan Johnson (15' Tipped ⚡), Noah Fant (29'), Juwan Johnson (39' Tipped ⚡), Noah Fant (40') · Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Mayer (25'), Mike Washington Jr. (42'), Cody White (51'), Brock Bowers (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 53% | Lost |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 09:55 am_

New Orleans Saints 27–35 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 3 at Caesars Superdome. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The scoreboard told the story in layers. The Las Vegas Raiders led at half-time 16-13, trailed 27-22 at the end of the third, then outscored the New Orleans Saints 13-0 in the fourth to win 35-27 at Caesars Superdome. Pressure sat on the Saints from the moment they built that 10-point gap in the third. Once it evaporated they never got it back.

New Orleans took the first lead with 50 seconds left in the first quarter when Juwan Johnson scored. That made it 6-3. Las Vegas answered in the second when Michael Mayer crossed with 5:46 to go, flipping the score to 12-6. Noah Fant replied for the Saints with 1:54 remaining, cutting it to 13-12. The Raiders added a late field goal and took a 16-13 edge into the break.

The Saints came out swinging in the third. Juwan Johnson scored again with 6:40 left to make it 19-16. Noah Fant followed 54 seconds later and the lead stretched to 26-16. That 10-point margin was the biggest either side saw all night. Mike Washington Jr. answered for Las Vegas with 3:20 remaining in the quarter and the score sat at 27-22 heading into the final period.

Las Vegas seized control early in the fourth. Cody White scored with 9:21 to play and the Raiders led 28-27. Brock Bowers then put them 34-27 ahead at the 6:22 mark. The Saints could not find another point. The Raiders closed it out 35-27.

New Orleans outgained Las Vegas 403 yards to 361 and won first downs 26 to 20. They also held a rushing edge of 148 to 113. None of it mattered. The Saints turned the ball over 4 times while the Raiders had 0. That gap showed up in offensive EPA, where Las Vegas sat at 4.4 and New Orleans at -1.2. Snap for snap the Raiders were simply cleaner.

Through the air it stayed tight. The Saints posted 255 passing yards against 248 for the Raiders. The Saints recorded 3 sacks to the Raiders' 2. Yet the turnover count killed any momentum. Four giveaways handed short fields and the Raiders capitalised every time.

Pre-match positional ratings had painted a different picture. The Saints held edges at quarterback 64 to 60 and receiving corps 71 to 48. Las Vegas rated higher in backfield 50 to 44, pass rush 61 to 59 and secondary 63 to 58. Special teams favoured the Raiders 59 to 54. Recent form was near identical, both sides sitting on 3 wins in their last 5, though the Saints carried a 7-point average margin against the Raiders' 0.4.

Alphr's model rated the Saints 1461 and the Raiders 1415, expecting a 1.1-point home win and a combined total of 39. Las Vegas defied the model's 53% prediction for New Orleans Saints. The actual 8-point result sat close enough to the forecast margin but the 62 points scored ran 23 higher than expected. The model went 1/3 on the match. Ball security decided it in the end.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 6 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 27 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 35 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:35 | Las Vegas Raiders | FG | — | 0-3 |
| Q1 0:50 | New Orleans Saints | TD | Juwan Johnson | 6-3 |
| Q2 11:27 | Las Vegas Raiders | FG | — | 6-6 |
| Q2 5:46 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Michael Mayer | 6-13 |
| Q2 1:54 | New Orleans Saints | TD | Noah Fant | 13-13 |
| Q2 0:00 | Las Vegas Raiders | FG | — | 13-16 |
| Q3 6:40 | New Orleans Saints | TD | Juwan Johnson | 20-16 |
| Q3 5:46 | New Orleans Saints | TD | Noah Fant | 27-16 |
| Q3 3:20 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Mike Washington Jr. | 27-22 |
| Q4 9:21 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Cody White | 27-28 |
| Q4 6:22 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Brock Bowers | 27-35 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **403** | Total Yards | 361 |
| **255** | Passing Yards | 248 |
| **148** | Rushing Yards | 113 |
| **26** | First Downs | 20 |
| 4 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -1.2 | Offensive EPA | **4.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Las Vegas Raiders defied the model's 53% prediction for New Orleans Saints, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.1 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 62 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 39. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.58 (edge -10.1%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 @ $1.79 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** New Orleans Saints 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -8.1%) — model probability 37.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: New Orleans Saints by 1 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders. The model can't split them, landing on New Orleans Saints at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New Orleans Saints sit 46 ELO points clear, 1461 to 1415.

New Orleans Saints own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has New Orleans Saints by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 39. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

The recent history is even: 4 wins each from the last 8 meetings, Las Vegas Raiders taking the most recent 25-10 in 2024 Week 17.

New Orleans Saints went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 0-0 at home, averaging 27.0 points for and 24.0 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 2-0 in 2026 so far, 1-0 away, averaging 26.5 points for and 13.5 against.

Tyler Shough starts under centre for New Orleans Saints, Kirk Cousins for Las Vegas Raiders, with Kellen Moore and Klint Kubliak calling the shots.

The market has New Orleans Saints favourites, New Orleans Saints $1.58 and Las Vegas Raiders $2.40, with the spread at New Orleans Saints -3.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | New Orleans Saints 4 · Las Vegas Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Las Vegas Raiders 25-10 (2024) |
| New Orleans Saints 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-0 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 27.0 for · 24.0 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 26.5 for · 13.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyler Shough · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Klint Kubliak |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $1.58 · Las Vegas Raiders $2.40 |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| 7.0pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W16 W · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L · W2 W | 26.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Las Vegas Raiders lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | New Orleans Saints | 27 – 35 | Las Vegas Raiders | New Orleans Saints 53% ✗ |
| 2024 | W17 | New Orleans Saints | 10 – 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | not priced |
| 2022 | W8 | New Orleans Saints | 24 – 0 | Las Vegas Raiders | not priced |
| 2020 | W2 | Las Vegas Raiders | 34 – 24 | New Orleans Saints | not priced |
| 2016 | W1 | New Orleans Saints | 34 – 35 | Las Vegas Raiders | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Caesars Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·2·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 39' |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 29' 40' |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bryce Lance | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | CJ Donaldson | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Moreno-Cropper | WR | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·2·3·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | no games | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Malik Benson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Mike Washington Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 42' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Raiders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Mayer, M.Washington, C.White

**New Orleans Saints** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 45% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Devaughn Vele — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: N.Fant

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (LV)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty · Rec yds | U 20.5 | $1.75 | 57% (expects 18.5) | ✗ missed |
| Ashton Jeanty · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.95 | 64% (expects 2.9) | ✓ landed |
| Ashton Jeanty · Rush yds | U 65.5 | $1.95 | 64% (expects 60.9) | ✓ landed |
| Kirk Cousins · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.57 | 64% (expects 1.1) | ✗ missed |
| Kirk Cousins · Pass yds | U 216.5 | $1.89 | 56% (expects 212.0) | ✗ missed |
| Tre Tucker · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.65 | 68% (expects 2.7) | ✗ missed |
| Tre Tucker · Rec yds | U 38.5 | $1.88 | 74% (expects 26.3) | ✗ missed |

**New Orleans Saints** (NO)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.15 | 56% (expects 5.5) | ✗ missed |
| Chris Olave · Rec yds | U 75.5 | $1.88 | 65% (expects 69.0) | ✗ missed |
| Devaughn Vele · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.87 | 80% (expects 22.9) | ✓ landed |
| Devaughn Vele · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.25 | 75% (expects 2.1) | ✓ landed |
| Juwan Johnson · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.75 | 51% (expects 39.7) | ✗ missed |
| Juwan Johnson · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.78 | 59% (expects 3.2) | ✗ missed |
| Tyler Shough · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.87 | 64% (expects 1.1) | ✗ missed |
| Tyler Shough · Pass yds | U 252.5 | $1.88 | 74% (expects 225.2) | ✗ missed |
| Tyler Shough · Rush yds | U 15.5 | $2.05 | 52% (expects 15.0) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1461 · Las Vegas Raiders 1415 · ELO difference: 46 in favour of New Orleans Saints

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 64 | 60 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 71 | 48 | New Orleans Saints +23 |
| Backfield | 44 | 50 | Las Vegas Raiders +6 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 61 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 63 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |
| Special Teams | 54 | 59 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — New Orleans Saints predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 23:55 UTC (latest tip update)