# New Orleans Saints v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win New Orleans Saints v Las Vegas Raiders?

Alphr's NFL model rates New Orleans Saints a narrow 53% favourite over Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: New Orleans Saints by 1 in a low-scoring game (39 total, under the 43.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** New Orleans Saints lead on Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### New Orleans Saints v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 28 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Caesars Superdome · Week 3

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.58 (edge -10.1%) — model probability 53.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 @ $1.79 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 53.3%
- **Margin Band:** New Orleans Saints 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -8.1%) — model probability 37.4%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: New Orleans Saints by 1 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview

**New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm_

New Orleans Saints meet Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 3 at Caesars Superdome, and the model can barely split them: New Orleans Saints just edge it. Below: the read, the win split and where the value sits.

The model gives the New Orleans Saints a 53% win probability over the Las Vegas Raiders. It is a close call, and the model's leaning on the Saints' 46-point ELO advantage: 1461 to the Raiders' 1415. The gap is not massive, but it is enough for the model to tip the scales.

The Saints have a few things going for them. They are stronger in three of the six key factors: Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback, and Recent Form. Tyler Shough, the Saints' quarterback, has a slight positional edge over Kirk Cousins of the Raiders, scoring 64 to Cousins' 60. Their recent form also shows promise, with three wins in their last five games, mirroring the Raiders. But the Saints have been scoring more freely, averaging 26.8 points to the Raiders' 19.6.

The head-to-head record is dead even over the last eight meetings, with four wins apiece. The Raiders took the last encounter in 2024, winning 25-10 at the same venue. That said, the Saints will be keen to turn the tables at the Caesars Superdome this time around.

In terms of recent form, both teams are on a similar path, each with three wins from their last five outings. The Saints have a slightly better average margin, winning by 7 points compared to the Raiders' 0.4. The Raiders, however, have been tighter defensively, conceding just 19.2 points per game to the Saints' 19.8. Both teams have had a full week's rest, so fatigue should not be a factor.

The stakes are high this early in the season. The Raiders have started strong, going 2-0, including a win on the road. The Saints are 1-1, still looking for their first home victory. The market has the Saints as favourites at $1.60, but the model's predicted margin of just 1.1 points suggests this could go either way.

The predicted total is a modest 39 points, a fair bit under the market line of 42.5. The model leans towards the under, suggesting a low-scoring affair. The Raiders might fancy their chances with a 3.5-point head start in the margin market.

For those eyeing the touchdown scorers, Travis Etienne Jr. is the model's top pick for an anytime TD at $2.65, with a 45% chance. Ashton Jeanty is not far behind at $2.00 and a 42% chance. For first TD honours, Etienne Jr. again heads the list at $8.75, though it is a long shot at 11%.

The Saints have the slight edge, but it is a tightrope of a game. The Raiders have the defensive edge with their secondary, but the Saints' stronger quarterback and recent form might just see them over the line. Expect a close one.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | New Orleans Saints 4 · Las Vegas Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Las Vegas Raiders 25-10 (2024) |
| New Orleans Saints 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-0 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 27.0 for · 24.0 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 26.5 for · 13.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyler Shough · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Klint Kubliak |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $1.60 · Las Vegas Raiders $2.40 |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3 · total 42.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| 7.0pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W16 W · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L · W2 W | 26.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W · W2 W | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Las Vegas Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | W17 | New Orleans Saints | 10 – 25 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2022 | W8 | New Orleans Saints | 24 – 0 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2020 | W2 | Las Vegas Raiders | 34 – 24 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2016 | W1 | New Orleans Saints | 34 – 35 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2012 | W11 | Las Vegas Raiders | 17 – 38 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Caesars Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·2·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 38% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 23% Market priced |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 25% Market priced |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — |
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| – | Barion Brown | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Bryce Lance | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | CJ Donaldson | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Oscar Delp | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·2·3·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 45% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 11% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Treyton Welch | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 42% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 10% Market priced |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | no games | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 27% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Malik Benson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Mike Washington Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 42%
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 27%
- Rest of the Raiders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**New Orleans Saints** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 45% · new club
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 38%
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25%
- ⚡ Devaughn Vele — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23%
- Rest of the Saints: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (LV)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty · Rec yds | U 20.5 | $1.75 | 57% (expects 18.5) | market |
| Ashton Jeanty · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.95 | 64% (expects 2.9) | market |
| Ashton Jeanty · Rush yds | U 65.5 | $1.95 | 64% (expects 60.9) | market |
| Tre Tucker · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.65 | 68% (expects 2.7) | market |
| Tre Tucker · Rec yds | U 38.5 | $1.88 | 74% (expects 26.3) | market |

**New Orleans Saints** (NO)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.15 | 56% (expects 5.5) | market |
| Chris Olave · Rec yds | U 75.5 | $1.88 | 65% (expects 69.0) | market |
| Devaughn Vele · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.87 | 80% (expects 22.9) | market |
| Devaughn Vele · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.25 | 75% (expects 2.1) | market |
| Juwan Johnson · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.75 | 51% (expects 39.7) | market |
| Juwan Johnson · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.78 | 59% (expects 3.2) | market |
| Tyler Shough · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.87 | 64% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Tyler Shough · Pass yds | U 252.5 | $1.88 | 74% (expects 225.2) | market |
| Tyler Shough · Rush yds | U 15.5 | $2.05 | 52% (expects 15.0) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1461 · Las Vegas Raiders 1415 · ELO difference: 46 in favour of New Orleans Saints

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 64 | 60 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 71 | 48 | New Orleans Saints +23 |
| Backfield | 44 | 50 | Las Vegas Raiders +6 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 61 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 63 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |
| Special Teams | 54 | 59 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — New Orleans Saints predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring New Orleans Saints win, around 20–19 (total ~39 — under the 43.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 43.5 line (model projects 39).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-23 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)