# Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Miami Dolphins 10 – 24 Kansas City Chiefs

_Kansas City Chiefs overpower Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 7 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Miami Dolphins 21% / Kansas City Chiefs 79% · Hard Rock Stadium · Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Miami Dolphins: Ollie Gordon II (12') · Kansas City Chiefs: Kenneth Walker III (3' Tipped ⚡), Kenneth Walker III (18' Tipped ⚡), Travis Kelce (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 79% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.5 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 06:40 am_

Miami Dolphins 10–24 Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 3 at Hard Rock Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Alphr model expected Kansas City Chiefs to beat Miami Dolphins by 9.5 at Hard Rock Stadium and gave them a 79% win probability. The Chiefs did win 24-10. The actual 14-point margin ran a bit wider than forecast yet the result still landed inside the read.

Kansas City took the early lead when Kenneth Walker III scored with 12:54 left in the first quarter for a 6-0 score. Miami answered as Ollie Gordon II crossed with 3:27 to play in the quarter and after the extra point led 7-6. The first quarter ended 7-7.

Kenneth Walker III added his second touchdown with 12:58 left in the second for a 13-7 lead. The extra point made it 14-7 at half-time. Miami trimmed the gap to 14-10 by the end of the third quarter. Travis Kelce scored with 2:55 remaining in the fourth to push the lead to 23-10 before the final extra point sealed the 24-10 result.

Kansas City finished with 334 total yards against Miami’s 329. They held 246 passing yards to Miami’s 210 while Miami recorded 119 rushing yards to Kansas City’s 88. Both sides managed 16 first downs.

Kansas City’s backfield carried a pre-match strength rating of 79 compared with Miami’s 54. Their pass rush rated 58 against Miami’s 49 and special teams rated 64 against Miami’s 52. That edge showed in the efficiency split. Kansas City posted an offensive EPA of 6.8 while Miami sat at -10.1.

Turnovers favoured Kansas City who lost the ball once to Miami’s two. Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Malik Willis went 20 of 36 for 210 yards and one pick. Kenneth Walker III led all rushers with 70 yards on 18 carries and two touchdowns. Rashee Rice topped the receiving chart with seven catches for 88 yards.

Kansas City brought two wins from their last five games averaging 19.6 points scored and 20 conceded. Miami had one win from their last five averaging 15.4 points scored and 32.4 conceded. Kansas City’s average margin sat at -0.4 while Miami’s was -17. The gap in recent form proved telling once the game settled.

The Alphr model correctly predicted Kansas City to win. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 24 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:54 | Kansas City Chiefs | TD | Kenneth Walker III | 0-7 |
| Q1 3:27 | Miami Dolphins | TD | Ollie Gordon II | 7-7 |
| Q2 12:58 | Kansas City Chiefs | TD | Kenneth Walker III | 7-14 |
| Q3 10:10 | Miami Dolphins | FG | Riley Patterson | 10-14 |
| Q4 11:35 | Kansas City Chiefs | FG | Harrison Butker | 10-17 |
| Q4 2:55 | Kansas City Chiefs | TD | Travis Kelce | 10-24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Total Yards | **334** |
| 210 | Passing Yards | **246** |
| **119** | Rushing Yards | 88 |
| 16 | First Downs | 16 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | 0 |
| -10.1 | Offensive EPA | **6.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Kansas City Chiefs to win at 79% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.13 (edge -9.8%) — model probability 78.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +11.5 @ $1.88 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 52.7% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Kansas City Chiefs 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -6.3%) — model probability 38.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 10 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Kansas City Chiefs here: 79% to see off Miami Dolphins. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Kansas City Chiefs sit 131 ELO points clear, 1541 to 1410. Form leans Kansas City Chiefs' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Miami Dolphins.

Kansas City Chiefs own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Kansas City Chiefs by 9.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. Kansas City Chiefs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Kansas City Chiefs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Kansas City Chiefs took the most recent meeting 26-7 in 2023 the Wild Card round.

Miami Dolphins went 0-2 in 2026 so far, 0-0 at home, averaging 13.0 points for and 31.0 against.

Kansas City Chiefs went 2-0 in 2026 so far, 0-0 away, averaging 32.0 points for and 20.0 against.

Malik Willis starts under centre for Miami Dolphins, Patrick Mahomes for Kansas City Chiefs, with Jeff Hafley and Andy Reid calling the shots.

The market has Kansas City Chiefs favourites, Miami Dolphins $6.05 and Kansas City Chiefs $1.13, with the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -11.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Miami Dolphins 3 · Kansas City Chiefs 7 |
| Last meeting | Kansas City Chiefs 26-7 (2023) |
| Miami Dolphins 2026 so far | 0-2 · 0-0 home |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 13.0 for · 31.0 against |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2026 so far | 2-0 · 0-0 away |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 32.0 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Malik Willis · Patrick Mahomes |
| Head coaches | Jeff Hafley · Andy Reid |
| Market | Miami Dolphins $6.05 · Kansas City Chiefs $1.13 |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -11.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.4pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 32.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| -17.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L | 15.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 W · W2 W | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Kansas City Chiefs lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Miami Dolphins | 10 – 24 | Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs 79% ✓ |
| 2023 | WC | Kansas City Chiefs | 26 – 7 | Miami Dolphins | not priced |
| 2023 | W9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 21 – 14 | Miami Dolphins | not priced |
| 2020 | W14 | Miami Dolphins | 27 – 33 | Kansas City Chiefs | not priced |
| 2017 | W16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 29 – 13 | Miami Dolphins | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hard Rock Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Malik Willis | QB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Chris Bell | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 22/24g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Kevin Coleman Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/15g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 21% | — | 🏉 12' |

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.44 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.20 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 18' |
| – | Jalen Royals | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Rashee Rice | WR | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 2/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ben VanSumeren | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Emmett Johnson | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.40 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jake Briningstool | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nikko Remigio | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Gray | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tyquan Thornton | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 1 pass) · model 57% · new club · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Rashee Rice 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Travis Kelce 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Xavier Worthy — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- ⚡ Emmett Johnson — 0 TDs in last 2 · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Chiefs: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**Miami Dolphins** (1 pick)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Gordon

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (KC)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.53 | 74% (expects 2.3) | ✓ landed |
| Kenneth Walker III · Rush yds | U 86.5 | $1.85 | 72% (expects 74.4) | ✓ landed |
| Kenneth Walker III · Rec yds | U 21.5 | $1.90 | 55% (expects 20.2) | ✓ landed |
| Patrick Mahomes · Rush yds | O 15.5 | $2.10 | 65% (expects 23.2) | ✗ missed |
| Patrick Mahomes · Pass yds | U 234.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 252.9) | ✗ missed |
| Patrick Mahomes · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.35 | 58% (expects 1.3) | ✗ missed |
| Rashee Rice · Rec yds | U 56.5 | $1.90 | 63% (expects 53.1) | ✗ missed |
| Rashee Rice · Rec | O 4.5 | $1.72 | 61% (expects 5.4) | ✓ landed |
| Travis Kelce · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.85 | 56% (expects 45.1) | ✗ missed |
| Travis Kelce · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.62 | 59% (expects 4.2) | ✓ landed |
| Tyquan Thornton · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.95 | 55% (expects 1.3) | ✗ missed |
| Tyquan Thornton · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $2.00 | 57% (expects 23.4) | ✓ landed |
| Xavier Worthy · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.85 | 70% (expects 27.2) | ✓ landed |
| Xavier Worthy · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.55 | 68% (expects 2.7) | ✓ landed |

**Miami Dolphins** (MIA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane · Rush yds | O 61.5 | $1.90 | 68% (expects 82.0) | ✗ missed |
| De'Von Achane · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.85 | 71% (expects 16.4) | ✓ landed |
| Malik Washington · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.75 | 73% (expects 2.4) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Washington · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.90 | 90% (expects 14.0) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Willis · Pass TDs | O 0.5 | $1.55 | 72% (expects 1.0) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Willis · Pass yds | O 170.5 | $1.85 | 58% (expects 185.1) | ✓ landed |
| Malik Willis · Rush yds | U 33.5 | $1.85 | 80% (expects 16.2) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Miami Dolphins 1410 · Kansas City Chiefs 1541 · ELO difference: 131 in favour of Kansas City Chiefs

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Miami Dolphins | Kansas City Chiefs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 57 | 52 | Miami Dolphins +5 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 50 | Even |
| Backfield | 54 | 79 | Kansas City Chiefs +25 |
| Pass Rush | 49 | 58 | Kansas City Chiefs +9 |
| Secondary | 64 | 57 | Miami Dolphins +7 |
| Special Teams | 52 | 64 | Kansas City Chiefs +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Kansas City Chiefs predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-miami-dolphins-v-kansas-city-chiefs
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-27 20:40 UTC (latest tip update)