# Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 35 – 6 New England Patriots

_Jacksonville Jaguars run riot over New England Patriots._

Half time: 14 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 59% / New England Patriots 41% · EverBank Stadium · Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Cameron (17'), Jakobi Meyers (26' Tipped ⚡), Parker Washington (44' Tipped ⚡), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (45' Tipped ⚡), Bhayshul Tuten (52' Tipped ⚡) · New England Patriots: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 59% | Won |
| New England Patriots | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 29 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 06:40 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 35–6 New England Patriots in NFL Week 3 at EverBank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots brought sharply different approaches to EverBank Stadium. New England Patriots chased raw metres and finished with 328 total yards to the home side's 319. Jacksonville Jaguars prioritised ball control and patience, converting chances into points while the visitors could not. The result fell out of that contrast, 35-6.

The first quarter ended scoreless, with both teams taking a patient approach. Jacksonville opened the scoring in the second quarter when Josh Cameron crossed for a touchdown with 13:25 left on the clock. Jakobi Meyers added another touchdown at the 4:23 mark. By half-time, Jacksonville had established a 14-3 lead, despite the statistical contest remaining tight.

The third quarter saw Jacksonville extend their lead significantly. Parker Washington scored a touchdown with 1:08 remaining in the quarter. Just 18 seconds later, at the 0:50 mark, Chris Rodriguez Jr. scored another touchdown, completing a quick double for the Jaguars. This burst of points took the score to 27-3, creating a substantial gap. Jacksonville finished the third quarter leading 28-3.

Bhayshul Tuten scored the final touchdown for Jacksonville with 8:02 left in the fourth quarter, pushing the lead to 34-6. The Patriots were unable to reach the end zone at any point in the game, managing only 6 points from field goals. This difference in offensive execution was a key factor in the final score.

Turnovers played a crucial role in the outcome. Jacksonville committed one turnover, while New England gave the ball away three times. This disparity directly affected New England's ability to convert their yardage into scores. Jacksonville's offensive EPA stood at 13.7, compared to New England's -15.2, indicating a difference of 28.9 expected points in offensive efficiency.

Jacksonville's rushing game proved more effective, gaining 137 yards compared to New England's 83. Bhayshul Tuten led all rushers with 73 yards on 15 carries, including one touchdown. Although New England recorded more passing yards, 245 to 182, Jacksonville's quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, completed 19 of 29 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns, with one interception. Drake Maye for New England completed 14 of 25 passes for 199 yards but threw two interceptions.

Coming into the match, Alphr's model rated Jacksonville at 1559 and New England at 1600. The model correctly predicted a Jacksonville win, assigning a 59% probability. However, the predicted margin of 4.8 points was well short of the actual 29-point difference. The total score prediction of 44 points was close to the actual combined total of 41 points.

Jacksonville's positional strength ratings were higher at quarterback, 74 versus 20, and special teams, 69 versus 49, which likely contributed to their ability to execute key plays. New England's secondary was rated higher, 72 versus 52, but their inability to generate turnovers from this strength had little impact on the day. Jacksonville's recent form showed an average scoring margin of 10.8 points over their last five games, indicating their capacity for strong wins.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
| New England Patriots | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:25 | Jacksonville Jaguars | TD | Josh Cameron | 7-0 |
| Q2 9:09 | New England Patriots | FG | Andy Borregales | 7-3 |
| Q2 4:23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | TD | Jakobi Meyers | 14-3 |
| Q3 1:08 | Jacksonville Jaguars | TD | Parker Washington | 21-3 |
| Q3 0:50 | Jacksonville Jaguars | TD | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 28-3 |
| Q4 13:17 | New England Patriots | FG | Andy Borregales | 28-6 |
| Q4 8:02 | Jacksonville Jaguars | TD | Bhayshul Tuten | 35-6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total Yards | **328** |
| 182 | Passing Yards | **245** |
| **137** | Rushing Yards | 83 |
| **20** | First Downs | 14 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **13.7** | Offensive EPA | -15.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 29 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 41, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.63 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 59.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 @ $1.82 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 53.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Jacksonville Jaguars 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 38.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Jacksonville Jaguars are the call at 59%, but New England Patriots stay live at 41%. The ratings say otherwise: New England Patriots sit 41 ELO points clear, 1600 to 1559, so the model is backing Jacksonville Jaguars against the ratings gap.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 4.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Jacksonville Jaguars, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

New England Patriots have won 9 of the last 11 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 32-16 in 2024 Week 7.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 23.5 points for and 15.0 against.

New England Patriots went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 15.0 points for and 8.0 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with Liam Coen and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $1.63 and New England Patriots $2.29, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Jacksonville Jaguars 2 · New England Patriots 9 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 32-16 (2024) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 23.5 for · 15.0 against |
| New England Patriots 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-1 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 15.0 for · 8.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $1.63 · New England Patriots $2.29 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 16.2pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Margin | 2.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W17 W · W18 W · WC L · W1 W · W2 L | 27.0 |
| New England Patriots | DIV W · CONF W · SB L · W1 L · W2 W | 16.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Jacksonville Jaguars lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 35 – 6 | New England Patriots | Jacksonville Jaguars 59% ✓ |
| 2024 | W7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 32 – 16 | New England Patriots | not priced |
| 2021 | W17 | New England Patriots | 50 – 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | not priced |
| 2018 | W2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 – 20 | New England Patriots | not priced |
| 2017 | DIV | New England Patriots | 24 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at EverBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| – | Josh Cameron | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.85 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nate Boerkircher | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Corey Kiner | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·2·3·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tommy DeVito | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Parker Washington 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · new club · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Jaguars: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Cameron

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New England Patriots** (NE)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.31 | 79% (expects 1.4) | ✓ landed |
| DeMario Douglas · Rec yds | U 29.5 | $1.88 | 73% (expects 18.8) | ✗ missed |
| Drake Maye · Pass yds | U 213.5 | $1.90 | 66% (expects 222.7) | ✓ landed |
| Drake Maye · Rush yds | U 25.5 | $2.00 | 59% (expects 21.0) | ✓ landed |
| Drake Maye · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.52 | 64% (expects 1.0) | ✓ landed |
| Hunter Henry · Rec yds | U 41.5 | $1.92 | 73% (expects 31.0) | ✓ landed |
| Hunter Henry · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.25 | 70% (expects 2.5) | ✓ landed |
| Mack Hollins · Rec yds | U 33.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 32.5) | ✗ missed |
| Mack Hollins · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.65 | 54% (expects 2.7) | ✓ landed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.95 | 63% (expects 1.9) | ✗ missed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rush yds | U 37.5 | $1.90 | 62% (expects 35.7) | ✓ landed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rec yds | U 14.5 | $1.92 | 58% (expects 14.3) | ✗ missed |
| Romeo Doubs · Rec yds | U 42.5 | $1.88 | 66% (expects 35.6) | ✗ missed |
| Romeo Doubs · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.68 | 68% (expects 2.7) | ✓ landed |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (JAX)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.02 | 72% (expects 0.8) | ✗ missed |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rush yds | U 54.5 | $1.89 | 87% (expects 31.9) | ✗ missed |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec yds | U 9.5 | $1.88 | 71% (expects 2.2) | ✗ missed |
| Brenton Strange · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.86 | 50% (expects 29.4) | ✗ missed |
| Brenton Strange · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.58 | 54% (expects 2.7) | ✓ landed |
| Brian Thomas Jr. · Rec yds | U 38.5 | $1.91 | 58% (expects 37.9) | ✓ landed |
| Brian Thomas Jr. · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.61 | 69% (expects 2.6) | ✓ landed |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Rec | U 0.5 | $1.68 | 60% (expects 0.2) | ✓ landed |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Rec yds | O 0.5 | $2.65 | 50% (expects 1.8) | ✗ missed |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Rush yds | O 20.5 | $1.90 | 56% (expects 21.3) | ✓ landed |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec yds | U 34.5 | $1.90 | 64% (expects 29.5) | ✗ missed |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 62% (expects 2.9) | ✗ missed |
| Parker Washington · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.13 | 68% (expects 3.6) | ✓ landed |
| Parker Washington · Rec yds | U 60.5 | $1.90 | 65% (expects 53.7) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** New England Patriots hold the ELO advantage (1600 vs 1559), but the market favours Jacksonville Jaguars (@1.63). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1559 · New England Patriots 1600 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 74 | 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars +54 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 57 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Backfield | 52 | 47 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 52 | 72 | New England Patriots +20 |
| Special Teams | 69 | 49 | Jacksonville Jaguars +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 20:40 UTC (latest tip update)