# Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots?

Alphr's NFL model rates Jacksonville Jaguars a 59% favourite over New England Patriots in Week 3. Predicted result: Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 in a low-scoring game (44 total, under the 45.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Jacksonville Jaguars lead on Quarterback and Recent Form.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · EverBank Stadium · Week 3

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.63 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 59.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 @ $1.82 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 53.1%
- **Margin Band:** Jacksonville Jaguars 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 38.3%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm_

Jacksonville Jaguars meet New England Patriots in NFL Week 3 at EverBank Stadium. The model makes Jacksonville Jaguars the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The Alphr model leans to the Jacksonville Jaguars at 59% in this Week 3 NFL fixture against the New England Patriots at 41%. This call comes despite the Patriots holding a higher team rating. The model is backing the Jaguars against a 41-point ELO gap, with the Patriots rated at 1600 compared to the Jaguars’ 1559.

The model’s read is driven primarily by the Jaguars’ Quarterback rating and their Recent Form. While the Patriots hold the overall team rating edge, the Jaguars show strength in key positions. Their Quarterback rating is a dominant 74 against the Patriots’ 20. They also lead in Receiving Corps at 64 vs 57, Backfield at 52 vs 47, and Special Teams at 69 vs 49. The Patriots’ main positional advantage lies in their Secondary, rated 72 compared to the Jaguars’ 52. Pass Rush and Rest Advantage are even factors for both sides.

Historically this has been a tough matchup for the Jaguars. In their last 11 meetings the Patriots have secured nine wins to the Jaguars’ two. However the last time these two sides met in Week 7 of the 2024 season at Wembley Stadium the Jacksonville Jaguars took a decisive 32-16 victory.

Looking at current form both teams come into this game with identical 1-1 regular season records in 2026. The Jaguars are 1-0 at home averaging 23.5 points for and 15.0 against per game. Their last five games show a WWLWL run averaging 27 points scored and 16.2 points conceded with an average winning margin of 10.8 points. The Patriots are 0-1 on the road averaging 15.0 points for and 8.0 against per game. Their last five are WWLLW averaging 16.2 points scored and 13.6 points conceded with a tighter average margin of 2.6 points. Both teams have had 7 days of rest leading into this Monday kickoff.

The Jaguars will be led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence and head coach Liam Coen. The Patriots will counter with quarterback Drake Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel. The game will be played outdoors on grass at EverBank Stadium.

The model predicts a tight contest with the Jacksonville Jaguars winning by a margin of 4.8 points. The combined total score is forecast at 44 points. The market has the Jaguars as a slight favourite at a -1.5 spread and sets the total line at 45.5 points. The model’s margin and total picks are for the Jaguars at -2.5 ($1.82) and the Under 45.5 ($1.86) though no specific edge is claimed on these lines.

In the head-to-head market the Jacksonville Jaguars are priced at $1.85 with the New England Patriots at $1.98. The market has the Jaguars as the favourite. The model calculates a slight negative edge of 2.1% on the Jaguars’ price suggesting the market has them a touch too short.

For those looking at player markets the model has several anytime touchdown picks. Rhamondre Stevenson is rated at 41% chance priced at $2.55. Bhayshul Tuten is at 33% ($2.60) Parker Washington at 32% ($2.80) Chris Rodriguez Jr. at 29% ($3.85) TreVeyon Henderson at 26% ($3.00) and Jakobi Meyers at 25% ($4.00). For first touchdown scorers Rhamondre Stevenson leads at 9% ($10.00) followed by Bhayshul Tuten at 7% ($9.50) Parker Washington also at 7% ($11.00) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. at 6% ($15.00).

Overall the model sees a win for the Jaguars driven by their quarterback and recent offensive form. For the Patriots to upset this call their superior team rating and strong secondary would need to shut down the Jaguars’ offensive strengths effectively. It shapes as a genuine contest.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Jacksonville Jaguars 2 · New England Patriots 9 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 32-16 (2024) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 23.5 for · 15.0 against |
| New England Patriots 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-1 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 15.0 for · 8.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $1.85 · New England Patriots $1.98 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 16.2pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Margin | 2.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W17 W · W18 W · WC L · W1 W · W2 L | 27.0 |
| New England Patriots | DIV W · CONF W · SB L · W1 L · W2 W | 16.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | W7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 32 – 16 | New England Patriots |
| 2021 | W17 | New England Patriots | 50 – 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2018 | W2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 – 20 | New England Patriots |
| 2017 | DIV | New England Patriots | 24 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2015 | W3 | New England Patriots | 51 – 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at EverBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 33% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 24% | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 25% Market priced |
| – | Josh Cameron | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 32% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 34% | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.85 AI 29% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | CJ Williams | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Nate Boerkircher | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 11% | — |
| – | Tanner Koziol | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Travis Hunter | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — |

**New England Patriots** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eli Raridon | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 26% Market priced |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Corey Kiner | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| – | Reggie Gilliam | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·2·3·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 41% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — |
| – | Tanner Arkin | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 41%
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 26%
- Rest of the Patriots: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 33%
- ⚡ Parker Washington 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32%
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · new club
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25%
- Rest of the Jaguars: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New England Patriots** (NE)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.31 | 79% (expects 1.4) | market |
| DeMario Douglas · Rec yds | U 29.5 | $1.88 | 73% (expects 18.8) | market |
| Drake Maye · Pass yds | U 213.5 | $1.90 | 66% (expects 222.7) | market |
| Drake Maye · Rush yds | U 25.5 | $2.00 | 59% (expects 21.0) | market |
| Drake Maye · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.52 | 64% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Hunter Henry · Rec yds | U 41.5 | $1.92 | 73% (expects 31.0) | market |
| Hunter Henry · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.25 | 70% (expects 2.5) | market |
| Mack Hollins · Rec yds | U 33.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 32.5) | market |
| Mack Hollins · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.65 | 54% (expects 2.7) | market |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.95 | 63% (expects 1.9) | market |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rush yds | U 37.5 | $1.90 | 62% (expects 35.7) | market |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rec yds | U 14.5 | $1.92 | 58% (expects 14.3) | market |
| TreVeyon Henderson · Rush yds | U 40.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 43.7) | market |
| TreVeyon Henderson · Rec yds | U 8.5 | $1.90 | 67% (expects 3.6) | market |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (JAX)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.02 | 72% (expects 0.8) | market |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rush yds | U 54.5 | $1.89 | 87% (expects 31.9) | market |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec yds | U 9.5 | $1.88 | 71% (expects 2.2) | market |
| Brenton Strange · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.86 | 50% (expects 29.4) | market |
| Brenton Strange · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.58 | 54% (expects 2.7) | market |
| Brian Thomas Jr. · Rec yds | U 38.5 | $1.91 | 58% (expects 37.9) | market |
| Brian Thomas Jr. · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.61 | 69% (expects 2.6) | market |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec yds | U 34.5 | $1.90 | 64% (expects 29.5) | market |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 62% (expects 2.9) | market |
| Parker Washington · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.13 | 68% (expects 3.6) | market |
| Parker Washington · Rec yds | U 60.5 | $1.90 | 65% (expects 53.7) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.83 | 53% (expects 1.6) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Rush yds | O 16.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 17.9) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Pass yds | U 223.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 237.1) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** New England Patriots hold the ELO advantage (1600 vs 1559), but the market favours Jacksonville Jaguars (@1.85). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1559 · New England Patriots 1600 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 74 | 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars +54 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 57 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Backfield | 52 | 47 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 52 | 72 | New England Patriots +20 |
| Special Teams | 69 | 49 | Jacksonville Jaguars +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Jacksonville Jaguars win, around 25–20 (total ~44 — under the 45.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 45.5 line (model projects 44).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-23 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)