# Green Bay Packers v Atlanta Falcons — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Green Bay Packers 14 – 35 Atlanta Falcons

_Atlanta Falcons put Green Bay Packers to the sword._

Half time: 7 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Green Bay Packers 68% / Atlanta Falcons 32% · Lambeau Field · Fri, 25 Sept, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson (10' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Golden (52') · Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson (14' Tipped ⚡), Austin Hooper (30'), Brian Robinson (42'), Bijan Robinson (57' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 68% | Lost |
| Atlanta Falcons | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 21 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 01:19 pm_

Green Bay Packers 14–35 Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 3 at Lambeau Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Atlanta Falcons' 242 rushing yards decided the match at Lambeau Field, powering a 35-14 win over Green Bay Packers. That ground control delivered nearly 15 times Green Bay's 17 yards on the ground and set up everything that followed. Atlanta outgained their hosts 498 total yards to 329 and looked the sharper side from the opening snap.

Their offensive edge showed up in the numbers too. Atlanta posted 21.6 Offensive EPA against Green Bay's 0.9, a gap of 20.7 expected points that proved decisive. Christian Watson gave the Packers first blood with a touchdown at 5:13 in the first quarter for a 6-0 lead. Bijan Robinson answered at 1:32 and the sides reached the end of the opening period locked at 7-7.

The second quarter tilted Atlanta's way. Austin Hooper crossed with 59 seconds left to make it 16-7, and the half-time margin sat at 17-7 after the extra point. Brian Robinson added another Atlanta touchdown at the 3:38 mark of the third, stretching the lead to 23-7 before the quarter closed at 24-7.

Green Bay mounted a brief reply in the fourth. Matthew Golden scored at 8:18 to trim the gap to 27-13. Bijan Robinson replied with his second touchdown at 3:33, pushing the score to 33-14 and sealing the 35-14 result after the final conversion.

Robinson dominated on the ground with 194 yards on 29 carries and two touchdowns. Michael Penix Jr. added 256 passing yards on 18-of-25 with one touchdown and one interception. Drake London led all receivers with 9 catches for 194 yards. Jordan Love threw for 312 yards on 28-of-53, two touchdowns and one pick.

The Alphr model had rated Green Bay at 1516 and Atlanta at 1409, expecting a 3.4-point win for the Packers on a 68% probability. The actual 21-point margin delivered a clear upset. The combined total call of 53 landed close to the real 49, missing by 4 points, while the over 43.5 call proved correct for a 2/3 match.

Atlanta's backfield and secondary ratings of 74 and 66 gave them control where it counted. Green Bay's edge at quarterback and receiving corps could not compensate for their lack of a run game or overall offensive output. The Falcons also carried stronger recent form, three wins in their last five against Green Bay's one. Atlanta averaged 17.6 points per game and conceded 22.8 in that stretch, while Green Bay averaged 19.2 points scored and 28.8 conceded.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 35 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:13 | Green Bay Packers | TD | Christian Watson | 7-0 |
| Q1 1:32 | Atlanta Falcons | TD | Bijan Robinson | 7-7 |
| Q2 4:48 | Atlanta Falcons | FG | Nick Folk | 7-10 |
| Q2 0:59 | Atlanta Falcons | TD | Austin Hooper | 7-17 |
| Q3 3:38 | Atlanta Falcons | TD | Brian Robinson Jr. | 7-24 |
| Q4 10:57 | Atlanta Falcons | FG | Nick Folk | 7-27 |
| Q4 8:18 | Green Bay Packers | TD | Matthew Golden | 14-27 |
| Q4 3:33 | Atlanta Falcons | TD | Bijan Robinson | 14-35 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Total Yards | **498** |
| **312** | Passing Yards | 256 |
| 17 | Rushing Yards | **242** |
| 16 | First Downs | **23** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **1** |
| 0.9 | Offensive EPA | **21.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Atlanta Falcons defied the model's 68% prediction for Green Bay Packers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.4 but the actual margin was 21 points. Total score prediction of 53 was close to the actual 49, within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.39 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 67.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.5%) — model probability 52.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Green Bay Packers 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -7.5%) — model probability 39.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 3 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 68% to see off Atlanta Falcons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 107 ELO points clear, 1516 to 1409. Form leans Atlanta Falcons' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 53. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Green Bay Packers to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Atlanta Falcons taking the most recent 25-24 in 2023 Week 2.

Green Bay Packers went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 0-0 at home, averaging 21.0 points for and 28.0 against.

Atlanta Falcons went 0-2 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 8.0 points for and 27.0 against.

Jordan Love starts under centre for Green Bay Packers, Michael Penix Jr. for Atlanta Falcons, with Matt LaFleur and Raheem Morris calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Green Bay Packers $1.39 and Atlanta Falcons $3.04, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -5.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Green Bay Packers 6 · Atlanta Falcons 6 |
| Last meeting | Atlanta Falcons 25-24 (2023) |
| Green Bay Packers 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-0 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 21.0 for · 28.0 against |
| Atlanta Falcons 2026 so far | 0-2 · 0-1 away |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 8.0 for · 27.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · Michael Penix Jr. |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · Raheem Morris |
| Market | Green Bay Packers $1.39 · Atlanta Falcons $3.04 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -5.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 28.8pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -9.6pts | Avg Margin | -5.2pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | W17 L · W18 L · WC L · W1 L · W2 W | 19.2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Atlanta Falcons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Green Bay Packers | 14 – 35 | Atlanta Falcons | Green Bay Packers 68% ✗ |
| 2023 | W2 | Atlanta Falcons | 25 – 24 | Green Bay Packers | not priced |
| 2020 | W4 | Green Bay Packers | 30 – 16 | Atlanta Falcons | not priced |
| 2018 | W14 | Green Bay Packers | 34 – 20 | Atlanta Falcons | not priced |
| 2017 | W2 | Atlanta Falcons | 34 – 23 | Green Bay Packers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (2·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 14/25g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' |
| – | MarShawn Lloyd | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Bo Melton | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/15g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/27g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 7% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/20g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.25 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 57' |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Chris Blair | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Drake London | WR | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·3·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Nick Muse | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zachariah Branch | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Atlanta Falcons** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- ⚡ Drake London 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Pitts Sr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Falcons: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Hooper, B.Robinson

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian Watson 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ MarShawn Lloyd — 1 TD in last 2 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Golden

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Atlanta Falcons** (ATL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson · Rush yds | U 78.5 | $1.87 | 55% (expects 83.8) | ✗ missed |
| Bijan Robinson · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.88 | 63% (expects 35.9) | ✓ landed |
| Bijan Robinson · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.10 | 65% (expects 3.8) | ✓ landed |
| Brian Robinson Jr. · Rec | U 0.5 | $1.98 | 55% (expects 0.3) | ✓ landed |
| Brian Robinson Jr. · Rush yds | U 22.5 | $1.90 | 55% (expects 20.5) | ✗ missed |
| Drake London · Rec yds | U 65.5 | $1.90 | 56% (expects 66.6) | ✗ missed |
| Drake London · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.80 | 66% (expects 4.7) | ✗ missed |
| Jahan Dotson · Rec yds | U 18.5 | $1.91 | 74% (expects 8.9) | ✓ landed |
| Jahan Dotson · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.30 | 76% (expects 0.6) | ✓ landed |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $2.05 | 57% (expects 35.7) | ✓ landed |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.15 | 53% (expects 3.8) | ✓ landed |
| Michael Penix Jr. · Rush yds | U 3.5 | $1.93 | 56% (expects 3.0) | ✓ landed |
| Michael Penix Jr. · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.42 | 72% (expects 0.9) | ✓ landed |
| Michael Penix Jr. · Pass yds | O 205.5 | $1.90 | 56% (expects 211.2) | ✓ landed |

**Green Bay Packers** (GB)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brooks · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.75 | 79% (expects 0.4) | ✓ landed |
| Chris Brooks · Rush yds | U 16.5 | $1.90 | 72% (expects 8.0) | ✓ landed |
| Chris Brooks · Rec yds | U 7.5 | $1.88 | 65% (expects 3.9) | ✓ landed |
| Christian Watson · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.98 | 76% (expects 3.1) | ✗ missed |
| Christian Watson · Rec yds | U 68.5 | $1.88 | 76% (expects 47.4) | ✗ missed |
| Jonnu Smith · Rec yds | U 8.5 | $1.92 | 71% (expects 1.2) | ✗ missed |
| Jonnu Smith · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.59 | 73% (expects 0.8) | ✗ missed |
| Jordan Love · Pass yds | U 230.5 | $1.89 | 58% (expects 245.3) | ✗ missed |
| Jordan Love · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.00 | 53% (expects 1.4) | ✗ missed |
| Jordan Love · Rush yds | O 8.5 | $1.93 | 50% (expects 9.1) | ✗ missed |
| Kaleb Johnson · Rush yds | U 36.5 | $1.88 | 92% (expects 7.7) | ✓ landed |
| Kaleb Johnson · Rec | U 0.5 | $2.10 | 60% (expects 0.2) | ✗ missed |
| MarShawn Lloyd · Rec yds | U 5.5 | $1.88 | 64% (expects 2.9) | ✗ missed |
| MarShawn Lloyd · Rush yds | U 27.5 | $1.90 | 61% (expects 21.4) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1516 · Atlanta Falcons 1409 · ELO difference: 107 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Atlanta Falcons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 39 | Green Bay Packers +24 |
| Receiving Corps | 77 | 55 | Green Bay Packers +22 |
| Backfield | 42 | 74 | Atlanta Falcons +32 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 49 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 66 | Atlanta Falcons +11 |
| Special Teams | 73 | 52 | Green Bay Packers +21 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 03:19 UTC (latest tip update)