# Detroit Lions v New York Jets — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Detroit Lions 31 – 24 New York Jets

_Detroit Lions devour New York Jets in a tight one._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Detroit Lions 74% / New York Jets 26% · Ford Field · Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown (29' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (35' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (46' Tipped ⚡), Jahmyr Gibbs (58' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: Kenyon Sadiq (25'), Jeremy Ruckert (49'), Garrett Wilson (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 74% | Won |
| New York Jets | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Detroit Lions vs New York Jets Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 06:39 am_

Detroit Lions 31–24 New York Jets in NFL Week 3 at Ford Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had the Detroit Lions winning at 74% probability and by 6.7 points. They delivered exactly that at Ford Field, beating the New York Jets 31-24 for a margin of 7. The total score prediction of 56 landed within 1 of the actual 55. All three model picks hit for this match.

The match unfolded in phases, with the Lions finding their rhythm after a scoreless first quarter. The Jets opened the scoring through Kenyon Sadiq with 5:33 left in the second quarter, taking a 6-3 lead. Amon-Ra St. Brown responded for Detroit with 1:36 left in the half, putting the Lions up 9-7, which became 10-7 at the break after the conversion.

The second half saw the Lions push their advantage. Jahmyr Gibbs scored his first touchdown with 10:56 left in the third quarter, extending the lead to 16-7. He followed up with another early in the fourth quarter, with 14:57 left, making it 23-10. This period saw Detroit stretch a slim half-time lead into a 13-point buffer.

New York then started to chip away at the lead. Jeremy Ruckert scored with 11:17 left, bringing the Jets to 24-16. Garrett Wilson then added another touchdown with 4:06 left, closing the gap to 24-22.

Jahmyr Gibbs crossed for his third touchdown with 2:25 remaining, pushing the score to 30-24. The final score settled at 31-24 after the conversion. Gibbs was a standout, finishing with 99 rushing yards on 20 carries and three touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown also contributed a touchdown for Detroit. For the Jets, Garrett Wilson had 10 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown, alongside scores from Jeremy Ruckert and Kenyon Sadiq.

The statistical breakdown showed Detroit with a slight edge in total yards, 400 to 379. Their rushing game was particularly effective, gaining 131 yards compared to the Jets' 58. This translated into a higher offensive EPA of 10.3 for Detroit, against New York's 6. The Lions' pass rush also proved decisive, registering 5 sacks to the Jets' 2, an area where Alphr's model had rated Detroit's pass rush stronger, 58 to 47. New York's 1 turnover, compared to Detroit's clean sheet, also played a part in the final outcome.

Through the air, Jared Goff completed 25 of 32 passes for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns for Detroit. For New York, Geno Smith completed 31 of 37 passes for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns. Detroit also had more first downs, 23 to 21.

Ultimately, the model's read on Detroit's strengths, particularly their higher-rated quarterback, 63 to 43, and receiving corps, 69 to 53, held firm. While the Jets managed more passing yards, 321 to 269, their inability to capitalise consistently, coupled with Detroit's more effective rushing and stronger pass rush, meant the Lions controlled the game when it mattered. It was a solid performance that backed the pre-match numbers.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| New York Jets | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:35 | Detroit Lions | FG | — | 3-0 |
| Q2 5:33 | New York Jets | TD | Kenyon Sadiq | 3-7 |
| Q2 1:36 | Detroit Lions | TD | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10-7 |
| Q3 10:56 | Detroit Lions | TD | Jahmyr Gibbs | 17-7 |
| Q3 6:22 | New York Jets | FG | — | 17-10 |
| Q4 14:57 | Detroit Lions | TD | Jahmyr Gibbs | 24-10 |
| Q4 11:17 | New York Jets | TD | Jeremy Ruckert | 24-16 |
| Q4 4:06 | New York Jets | TD | Garrett Wilson | 24-24 |
| Q4 2:25 | Detroit Lions | TD | Jahmyr Gibbs | 31-24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Detroit Lions | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| **400** | Total Yards | 379 |
| 269 | Passing Yards | **321** |
| **131** | Rushing Yards | 58 |
| **23** | First Downs | 21 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **10.3** | Offensive EPA | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Detroit Lions to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Detroit Lions by 6.7 vs the actual margin of 7 points. Total score prediction of 56 was close to the actual 55, within 1 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.30 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 74.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -6.5 @ $1.83 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 50.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Detroit Lions 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 39.7% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 7 · Predicted total: 56

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Detroit Lions here: 74% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Detroit Lions sit 167 ELO points clear, 1544 to 1377. Form leans Detroit Lions' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Jets.

Detroit Lions own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Detroit Lions by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 56. Detroit Lions to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New York Jets have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Detroit Lions took the most recent meeting 20-17 in 2022 Week 15.

Detroit Lions went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 31.0 points for and 35.5 against.

New York Jets went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 away, averaging 20.0 points for and 15.0 against.

Jared Goff starts under centre for Detroit Lions, Geno Smith for New York Jets, with Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

Detroit Lions come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Detroit Lions favourites, Detroit Lions $1.30 and New York Jets $3.56, with the spread at Detroit Lions -6.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Detroit Lions 3 · New York Jets 4 |
| Last meeting | Detroit Lions 20-17 (2022) |
| Detroit Lions 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 home |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 31.0 for · 35.5 against |
| New York Jets 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 20.0 for · 15.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Dan Campbell · Aaron Glenn |
| Rest | Detroit Lions 10d · New York Jets 7d |
| Market | Detroit Lions $1.30 · New York Jets $3.56 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6.5 · total 47.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Detroit Lions | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | -14.4pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W · W2 L | 23.0 |
| New York Jets | W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Detroit Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Detroit Lions | 31 – 24 | New York Jets | Detroit Lions 74% ✓ |
| 2022 | W15 | New York Jets | 17 – 20 | Detroit Lions | not priced |
| 2018 | W1 | Detroit Lions | 17 – 48 | New York Jets | not priced |
| 2014 | W4 | New York Jets | 17 – 24 | Detroit Lions | not priced |
| 2010 | W9 | Detroit Lions | 20 – 23 | New York Jets | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ford Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 4 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/1g | 27/44g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.02 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 3 in 2g | 11/10g (0·3·0·3·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 34/28g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.40 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 46' 58' |
| – | Sam LaPorta | TE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 15/24g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 36% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brock Wright | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 7/30g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Meeks | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/28g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/47g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sione Vaki | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Kennedy | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Braelon Allen | RB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.07 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Garrett Wilson | WR | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' |
| – | Kenyon Sadiq | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Jamaal Pritchett | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jelani Woods | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Garrett Wilson — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Jets: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Sadiq, J.Ruckert

**Detroit Lions** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 3 pass) · model 67% · **scored Q3, Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 54% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jameson Williams 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Sam LaPorta — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New York Jets** (NYJ)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adonai Mitchell · Rec yds | U 44.5 | $1.88 | 77% (expects 29.0) | — |
| Adonai Mitchell · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.88 | 77% (expects 2.0) | — |
| Breece Hall · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.70 | 78% (expects 1.9) | ✓ landed |
| Breece Hall · Rush yds | U 57.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 63.9) | ✓ landed |
| Breece Hall · Rec yds | U 21.5 | $1.90 | 59% (expects 18.7) | ✗ missed |
| Garrett Wilson · Rec yds | U 61.5 | $1.91 | 75% (expects 43.1) | ✗ missed |
| Garrett Wilson · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.84 | 71% (expects 4.3) | ✗ missed |
| Geno Smith · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.52 | 64% (expects 1.1) | ✗ missed |
| Geno Smith · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $1.95 | 56% (expects 212.1) | ✗ missed |
| Geno Smith · Rush yds | U 11.5 | $1.88 | 66% (expects 5.9) | ✗ missed |
| Kenyon Sadiq · Rec yds | U 24.5 | $1.88 | 70% (expects 15.9) | ✗ missed |
| Kenyon Sadiq · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.92 | 60% (expects 2.0) | ✗ missed |

**Detroit Lions** (DET)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown · Rec | U 7.5 | $1.67 | 79% (expects 5.8) | ✓ landed |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown · Rec yds | U 75.5 | $1.90 | 62% (expects 72.3) | ✓ landed |
| Isaac TeSlaa · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.92 | 67% (expects 1.0) | ✗ missed |
| Isaac TeSlaa · Rec yds | U 18.5 | $1.88 | 60% (expects 15.2) | ✗ missed |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.90 | 64% (expects 30.6) | ✗ missed |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.00 | 63% (expects 3.9) | ✗ missed |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rush yds | U 83.5 | $1.88 | 66% (expects 76.2) | ✗ missed |
| Jameson Williams · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.29 | 57% (expects 3.5) | ✗ missed |
| Jameson Williams · Rec yds | U 55.5 | $1.91 | 63% (expects 50.5) | ✓ landed |
| Jared Goff · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.52 | 75% (expects 2.2) | ✓ landed |
| Jared Goff · Pass yds | U 258.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 272.2) | ✗ missed |
| Jared Goff · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.60 | 55% (expects 0.5) | ✗ missed |
| Sam LaPorta · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 46.5) | ✓ landed |
| Sam LaPorta · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.05 | 56% (expects 4.5) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Detroit Lions 1544 · New York Jets 1377 · ELO difference: 167 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Detroit Lions | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 43 | Detroit Lions +20 |
| Receiving Corps | 69 | 53 | Detroit Lions +16 |
| Backfield | 50 | 51 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 47 | Detroit Lions +11 |
| Secondary | 59 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 63 | 66 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Detroit Lions |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 56 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 20:39 UTC (latest tip update)