# Detroit Lions v New York Jets — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Detroit Lions v New York Jets?

Alphr's NFL model makes Detroit Lions a clear 74% favourite over New York Jets in Week 3. Predicted result: Detroit Lions by 7 in a high-scoring game (56 total, over the 47.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Detroit Lions lead on Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Detroit Lions v New York Jets
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Ford Field · Week 3

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.30 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 74.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -6.5 @ $1.83 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 50.2%
- **Margin Band:** Detroit Lions 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 39.7%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 7 · Predicted total: 56

### Match Preview

**Detroit Lions vs New York Jets Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm_

Detroit Lions meet New York Jets in NFL Week 3 at Ford Field. The model makes Detroit Lions the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model is firm on Detroit Lions here: 74% to see off New York Jets on Monday at Ford Field. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap. Detroit Lions sit 167 ELO points clear at 1544 to 1377 and in this model's world that is not a close game on paper.

The positional numbers back it up almost everywhere you look. Jared Goff rates 63 at quarterback to Geno Smith's 43, the receiving corps is 69 to 53, the pass rush is 58 to 47. New York Jets hold a thin edge in special teams at 66 to 63 and the backfield is basically even at 51 to 50. Everywhere else it is Detroit Lions. They lead five of six factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback, Pass Rush, Recent Form and Rest Advantage. Only the secondary grades out as even.

History has been kinder to New York Jets than the ratings suggest. Over the last seven meetings it is 4-3 their way. But the most recent one went to Detroit Lions, 20-17 on the road at MetLife Stadium back in 2022. That is the sort of stat that reminds you head-to-head record and current form are two different conversations.

Form is where the split really shows. Detroit Lions are 1-1 this season, 1-0 at home, scoring 31 and conceding 35.5 a game, last five reading LLWWL. New York Jets are also 1-1, 1-0 on the road, but far tighter at 20 for and just 15 against, running LLLWL. New York Jets have been the stingier outfit but Detroit Lions have won more of their last five, 2 to 1, and average conceded numbers across that stretch are close at 27.8 to 27.2. It is not a gulf in defence. It is a gulf in ceiling.

Dan Campbell has his side on 10 days' rest, Aaron Glenn's group on 7. That rest edge is one of the named factors favouring Detroit Lions and coming off a short week against a home side with more petrol in the tank is rarely a fun assignment.

The model's margin sits at Detroit Lions by 6.7, with a combined total near 56. The market has Detroit Lions at -9.5 and the total at 45.5, so the model is backing a slightly narrower margin but a notably higher-scoring affair than the line suggests.

In the market Detroit Lions are $1.23 and New York Jets $4.40, with Detroit Lions the clear favourite in both books. The model's price on the head-to-head sits at $1.30, which is actually a touch off the market, a -2.7% edge against its own number. The margin play, Detroit Lions -6.5 at $1.83, and the total, Over 47.5 at $1.85, are both pick-only calls. The model does not price those markets itself so there is no stated edge, just the lean.

On the touchdown markets Jahmyr Gibbs anytime is the standout at $1.40 with the model giving him 67%. Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime sits at $2.02 and 54%. Further down the value curve Breece Hall anytime is $2.07 at 42% for New York Jets and Jameson Williams anytime is $2.95 at 38%. First-scorer prices are longer across the board, Gibbs first at $4.00 with 15%, St. Brown first at $7.00 with 12%.

For New York Jets to cause bother they will likely need to lean on the thing they have actually been good at, that stingy 15 points-a-game defence, and hope the shorter rest does not bite as hard as the model thinks it will. But between the ELO gap, the quarterback mismatch and the extra days off this reads as one of the more settled calls on the board this week. Detroit Lions, comfortably, is where the numbers land.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Detroit Lions 3 · New York Jets 4 |
| Last meeting | Detroit Lions 20-17 (2022) |
| Detroit Lions 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 home |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 31.0 for · 35.5 against |
| New York Jets 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 20.0 for · 15.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Dan Campbell · Aaron Glenn |
| Rest | Detroit Lions 10d · New York Jets 7d |
| Market | Detroit Lions $1.23 · New York Jets $4.40 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -9.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Detroit Lions | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | -14.4pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W · W2 L | 23.0 |
| New York Jets | W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New York Jets lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W15 | New York Jets | 17 – 20 | Detroit Lions |
| 2018 | W1 | Detroit Lions | 17 – 48 | New York Jets |
| 2014 | W4 | New York Jets | 17 – 24 | Detroit Lions |
| 2010 | W9 | Detroit Lions | 20 – 23 | New York Jets |
| 2006 | W7 | New York Jets | 31 – 24 | Detroit Lions |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ford Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Detroit Lions** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 4 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·2·2) | 0/1g | 27/44g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.02 AI 54% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% Market priced |
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 3 in 2g | 11/10g (0·3·0·3·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 34/28g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.40 AI 67% AI backs — priced short; 🎯 First TD $4.00 AI 15% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Sam LaPorta | TE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 15/24g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 36% Market priced |
| – | Brock Wright | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 7/30g | 18% | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 39% | — |
| – | Jackson Meeks | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/28g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 38% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/47g | 2% | — |
| – | Sione Vaki | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — |
| – | Tay Martin | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — |
| – | Tom Kennedy | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — |
| – | Tyler Conklin | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 12% | — |

**New York Jets** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Braelon Allen | RB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.07 AI 42% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Garrett Wilson | WR | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 28% Market priced |
| – | Kenyon Sadiq | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 6% | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — |
| – | Jelani Woods | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 42%
- ⚡ Garrett Wilson — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28%
- Rest of the Jets: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**Detroit Lions** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 3 pass) · model 67%
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 54%
- ⚡ Jameson Williams 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 38%
- ⚡ Sam LaPorta — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36%
- Rest of the Lions: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New York Jets** (NYJ)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adonai Mitchell · Rec yds | U 44.5 | $1.88 | 77% (expects 29.0) | market |
| Adonai Mitchell · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.88 | 77% (expects 2.0) | market |
| Breece Hall · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.70 | 78% (expects 1.9) | market |
| Breece Hall · Rush yds | U 57.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 63.9) | market |
| Breece Hall · Rec yds | U 21.5 | $1.90 | 59% (expects 18.7) | market |
| Garrett Wilson · Rec yds | U 61.5 | $1.91 | 75% (expects 43.1) | market |
| Garrett Wilson · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.84 | 71% (expects 4.3) | market |

**Detroit Lions** (DET)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown · Rec | U 7.5 | $1.67 | 79% (expects 5.8) | market |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown · Rec yds | U 75.5 | $1.90 | 62% (expects 72.3) | market |
| Isaac TeSlaa · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.92 | 67% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Isaac TeSlaa · Rec yds | U 18.5 | $1.88 | 60% (expects 15.2) | market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.90 | 64% (expects 30.6) | market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.00 | 63% (expects 3.9) | market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rush yds | U 83.5 | $1.88 | 66% (expects 76.2) | market |
| Jameson Williams · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.29 | 57% (expects 3.5) | market |
| Jameson Williams · Rec yds | U 55.5 | $1.91 | 63% (expects 50.5) | market |
| Jared Goff · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.52 | 75% (expects 2.2) | market |
| Jared Goff · Pass yds | U 258.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 272.2) | market |
| Jared Goff · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.60 | 55% (expects 0.5) | market |
| Sam LaPorta · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 46.5) | market |
| Sam LaPorta · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.05 | 56% (expects 4.5) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Detroit Lions 1544 · New York Jets 1377 · ELO difference: 167 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Detroit Lions | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 43 | Detroit Lions +20 |
| Receiving Corps | 69 | 53 | Detroit Lions +16 |
| Backfield | 50 | 51 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 47 | Detroit Lions +11 |
| Secondary | 59 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 63 | 66 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Detroit Lions |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 56 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Detroit Lions win, around 31–24 (total ~56 — over the 47.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 47.5 line (model projects 56).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-23 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)