# Denver Broncos v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Denver Broncos v Los Angeles Rams?

Alphr's NFL model rates Los Angeles Rams a narrow 55% favourite over Denver Broncos in Week 3 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Los Angeles Rams by 3 in a high-scoring game (46 total, over the 45.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** Los Angeles Rams lead on Quarterback and Secondary.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Denver Broncos v Los Angeles Rams
Mon, 28 Sept, 10:20 am AEST · Empower Field at Mile High · Week 3

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.70 (edge -3.6%) — model probability 55.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -2.5 @ $1.88 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.6%
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.30 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 37.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.95 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview

**Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm_

Denver Broncos meet Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 3 at Empower Field at Mile High. The model makes Los Angeles Rams the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model gives the Los Angeles Rams a 55% chance of getting it done at Empower Field on Monday, with the Denver Broncos sitting at 45%. That is close to a coin flip, and there is a wrinkle. Denver actually holds the ELO edge, 1589 to 1585, so the model is backing the side with the worse rating on the back of Quarterback and Secondary, both of which lean to the Los Angeles Rams.

Look at the numbers behind those factors and it is not close. Matthew Stafford's outfit rates 67 at quarterback to Bo Nix's 45. The secondary gap is 64 to 51, and the backfield gap is even bigger at 68 to 49. Denver's answer is the Pass Rush, where they rate 62 to the Rams' 55, the one column favouring the Denver Broncos on the sheet. Team Rating, Recent Form and Rest Advantage are all called even.

History does not offer Denver much comfort either. The Los Angeles Rams have won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two, and the most recent one was not close: 51-14 to the Rams at SoFi Stadium back in Week 16, 2022.

Form this year has both clubs sitting at 1-1, and both arrive on a last-five pattern reading LW. But the scoring tells two different stories. The Los Angeles Rams are averaging 17.5 points for and 16.5 against, a tidy plus-one. The Denver Broncos are averaging 15.0 for and 22.0 against, which is a seven-point deficit and the kind of gap that shows up in a rating sheet. Denver are 1-0 at home so far, for what it is worth, while the Rams have not played on the road yet this season.

Rest favours Denver marginally, seven days to six, and Sean Payton's side get the extra day at home. Sean McVay's Rams travel on the shorter turnaround. Bo Nix and Stafford will run out as the two starting quarterbacks, and it is Payton's home patch against the coach who has beaten him more often than not in this fixture.

Put it all together and the model lands on Los Angeles Rams by 2.9, with the total sitting around 46. That is a razor's edge over the market's own line of Rams -2.5, and just above the total line of 45.5. The market has Los Angeles Rams at $1.74 and Denver Broncos out at $2.14, so the market is a bit more confident in the Rams than the model is: the model's edge on the head to head is actually negative, -3.6%, meaning the price is a touch short of what the numbers support. The margin pick, Los Angeles Rams -2.5 at $1.88, and the total pick, Over 45.5 at $1.95, are both plays the model likes on its own numbers, though it does not price those markets, so no edge is claimed there.

In the props, Kyren Williams is the shortest anytime touchdown price at $1.89, with the model giving him a 54% shot, and he is also the first-scorer lean at $6.50, though the model has him at just 10% for that one. Puka Nacua rates 49% anytime at $2.40, Davante Adams 39% at $2.25, and on the Denver side J.K. Dobbins sits at 35% anytime for $2.45, with RJ Harvey at 33% and Courtland Sutton further back at 28%.

For Denver to get this done, the Pass Rush has to actually show up and make Nix's night easier than his rating suggests it should be. It is not a stretch given the ELO gap sits in Denver's favour by four points, but the model's still leaning Rams on the strength of Stafford and that secondary. Call it a genuine contest with a slight lean, not a certainty either way.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Denver Broncos 1 · Los Angeles Rams 6 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 51-14 (2022) |
| Denver Broncos 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 15.0 for · 22.0 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-0 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 17.5 for · 16.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Sean McVay |
| Market | Denver Broncos $2.14 · Los Angeles Rams $1.74 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -2.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W18 W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 L · W2 W | 17.8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | WC W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 L · W2 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W16 | Los Angeles Rams | 51 – 14 | Denver Broncos |
| 2018 | W6 | Denver Broncos | 20 – 23 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2014 | W11 | Los Angeles Rams | 22 – 7 | Denver Broncos |
| 2010 | W12 | Denver Broncos | 33 – 36 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2006 | W1 | Los Angeles Rams | 18 – 10 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/12g | 14% | — |
| – | Jonah Coleman | RB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/17g | 18% | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/21g | 10% | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/19g | 23% | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 19/51g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 28% Market priced |
| – | Dallen Bentley | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 35% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/18g | 16% | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/26g | 20% | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 4% | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/11g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 33% Market priced |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/18g | 22% | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 3% | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/5g | 2/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 39% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.89 AI 54% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 10% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — |
| – | CJ Daniels | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Max Klare | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 49% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 3 pass) · model 54%
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 49%
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 39%
- Rest of the Rams: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 35%
- ⚡ RJ Harvey — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33%
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28%
- Rest of the Broncos: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Los Angeles Rams** (LA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum · Rec yds | U 5.5 | $1.65 | 64% (expects 2.4) | market |
| Blake Corum · Rec | U 0.5 | $2.45 | 54% (expects 0.4) | market |
| Blake Corum · Rush yds | U 46.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 48.2) | market |
| Kyren Williams · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.62 | 77% (expects 1.5) | market |
| Kyren Williams · Rec yds | U 13.5 | $1.85 | 64% (expects 10.8) | market |
| Kyren Williams · Rush yds | U 55.5 | $1.89 | 53% (expects 63.7) | market |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 1.8) | market |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass yds | U 241.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 257.6) | market |
| Matthew Stafford · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.67 | 56% (expects -0.3) | market |

**Denver Broncos** (DEN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix · Rush yds | U 16.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 13.1) | market |
| Bo Nix · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.66 | 64% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Bo Nix · Pass yds | U 211.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 232.6) | market |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 65% (expects 2.8) | market |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.85 | 63% (expects 36.3) | market |
| Evan Engram · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.98 | 59% (expects 2.0) | market |
| Evan Engram · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.72 | 73% (expects 15.8) | market |
| Pat Bryant · Rec yds | U 26.5 | $1.92 | 73% (expects 15.7) | market |
| Pat Bryant · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.10 | 79% (expects 1.4) | market |
| Pat Bryant · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.20 | 57% (expects -1.3) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Denver Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1589 vs 1585), but the market favours Los Angeles Rams (@1.74). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1589 · Los Angeles Rams 1585 · ELO difference: 4 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 67 | Los Angeles Rams +22 |
| Receiving Corps | 47 | 52 | Los Angeles Rams +5 |
| Backfield | 49 | 68 | Los Angeles Rams +19 |
| Pass Rush | 62 | 55 | Denver Broncos +7 |
| Secondary | 51 | 64 | Los Angeles Rams +13 |
| Special Teams | 68 | 68 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Los Angeles Rams win, around 24–21 (total ~46 — over the 45.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 45.5 line (model projects 46).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-23 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)