# Denver Broncos v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 30 – 26 Los Angeles Rams

_Denver Broncos hit back to buck off Los Angeles Rams from 16 down._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 45% / Los Angeles Rams 55% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 28 Sept, 10:20 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Pat Bryant (38'), Nate Adkins (43'), Talanoa Hufanga (56'), Bo Nix (60') · Los Angeles Rams: Tyler Higbee (11'), Konata Mumpfield (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 55% | Lost |
| Denver Broncos | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 01:56 pm_

Denver Broncos 30–26 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 3 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Broncos trailed 0-16 at half-time against the Los Angeles Rams at Empower Field at Mile High. That 16-point hole looked decisive after Los Angeles had rolled up 506 total yards and controlled the first two quarters. Yet Denver scored 30 points in the second half to Los Angeles' 10, turning the contest into a 30-26 win that finished on a late touchdown.

Tyler Higbee opened the scoring for the Rams with a touchdown when 4:55 remained in the first quarter. The lead sat at 7-0 by the end of the opening period and stretched to 16-0 by the main break. Denver managed zero first-half points despite 3 wins in their last 5 matches and an average margin of 0.4 pts.

The comeback started in the third quarter. Pat Bryant crossed for a touchdown with 7:44 left to make it 16-6. Nate Adkins added another at the 2:15 mark, trimming the deficit to 16-14. By the end of the third the sides sat level at 16-16 after Denver had outscored the visitors 16-0 in the period.

Momentum swung sharply in the fourth. Talanoa Hufanga put Denver in front 22-19 with a touchdown at the 4:49 mark. Los Angeles answered at 3:38 when Konata Mumpfield scored to lead 25-23. Bo Nix then sealed it with a touchdown at 0:47, pushing the Broncos to 29-26 before the final point made it 30-26.

Los Angeles still finished with 506 yards to Denver's 264. That gap came mostly through the air, where the Rams posted 390 passing yards against the Broncos' 186. On the ground the visitors managed 116 rushing yards to Denver's 78, and they generated 25 first downs to the home side's 16.

Turnovers told a different story. The Rams coughed up 2 while Denver lost 1. The Broncos' pass rush also got home 4 times to Los Angeles' 1, a direct payoff from their pre-match edge in that area. Those disruptions helped neutralise the yardage disparity and flipped the scoreboard.

Matthew Stafford went 30-of-55 for 390 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 picks. Bo Nix finished 17-of-34 for 186 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Kyren Williams led all rushers with 88 yards on 15 carries. Davante Adams topped the receiving chart with 7 catches for 137 yards.

The Broncos' offensive EPA sat at -0.4 compared with the Rams' 1.6. Denver's touchdowns came through Bo Nix, Nate Adkins, Pat Bryant and Talanoa Hufanga. Los Angeles scored through Konata Mumpfield and Tyler Higbee. Statistically the visitors dominated, yet the turnover battle and sacks proved more decisive.

Alphr's model rated the Broncos 1589 and the Rams 1585 coming in. It expected Los Angeles by 2.9 with a 55% win probability and a combined total over 45.5. The actual 4-point margin sat close to that spread, yet the Broncos defied the outright call. The over 45.5 landed correctly as the final tally reached 56 points.

Pre-match positional ratings favoured the Rams at quarterback 67 versus 45, receiving corps 52 versus 47, backfield 68 versus 49 and secondary 64 versus 51. Denver held the pass-rush advantage at 62 to 55, which materialised in the 4-1 sack count. Both sides carried similar recent form, each with 3 wins in their last 5. The Broncos averaged 17.8 pts per game while the Rams sat at 23.2. The result underlined how one-score games can ignore the numbers.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 26 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:55 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Tyler Higbee | 0-7 |
| Q2 13:17 | Los Angeles Rams | FG | — | 0-10 |
| Q2 4:43 | Los Angeles Rams | FG | — | 0-13 |
| Q2 0:00 | Los Angeles Rams | FG | — | 0-16 |
| Q3 7:44 | Denver Broncos | TD | Pat Bryant | 8-16 |
| Q3 2:15 | Denver Broncos | TD | Nate Adkins | 16-16 |
| Q4 8:40 | Los Angeles Rams | FG | — | 16-19 |
| Q4 4:49 | Denver Broncos | TD | Talanoa Hufanga | 23-19 |
| Q4 3:38 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Konata Mumpfield | 23-26 |
| Q4 0:47 | Denver Broncos | TD | Bo Nix | 30-26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 264 | Total Yards | **506** |
| 186 | Passing Yards | **390** |
| 78 | Rushing Yards | **116** |
| 16 | First Downs | **25** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -0.4 | Offensive EPA | **1.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Denver Broncos defied the model's 55% prediction for Los Angeles Rams, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.9 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 45.5 total call was correct.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.70 (edge -3.6%) — model probability 55.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -2.5 @ $1.88 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.30 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 37.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.95 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Rams are the call at 55%, but Denver Broncos stay live at 45%.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 2.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Los Angeles Rams, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Los Angeles Rams have won 6 of the last 7 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 51-14 in 2022 Week 16.

Denver Broncos went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 15.0 points for and 22.0 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 0-0 away, averaging 17.5 points for and 16.5 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Sean Payton and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Denver Broncos $2.16 and Los Angeles Rams $1.70, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -2.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Denver Broncos 1 · Los Angeles Rams 6 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 51-14 (2022) |
| Denver Broncos 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 15.0 for · 22.0 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-0 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 17.5 for · 16.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Sean McVay |
| Market | Denver Broncos $2.16 · Los Angeles Rams $1.70 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -2.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W18 W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 L · W2 W | 17.8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | WC W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 L · W2 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Denver Broncos | 30 – 26 | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams 55% ✗ |
| 2022 | W16 | Los Angeles Rams | 51 – 14 | Denver Broncos | not priced |
| 2018 | W6 | Denver Broncos | 20 – 23 | Los Angeles Rams | not priced |
| 2014 | W11 | Los Angeles Rams | 22 – 7 | Denver Broncos | not priced |
| 2010 | W12 | Denver Broncos | 33 – 36 | Los Angeles Rams | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/12g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/17g | 18% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/19g | 23% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 19/51g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kolbe Katsis | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 4% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/11g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/18g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 3% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/5g | 2/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.89 AI 54% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Dean Connors | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 3 pass) · model 54% · no TD
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 49% · no TD
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Higbee, K.Mumpfield

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ RJ Harvey — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: P.Bryant, N.Adkins, T.Hufanga, B.Nix

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Los Angeles Rams** (LA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum · Rec yds | U 5.5 | $1.65 | 64% (expects 2.4) | ✓ landed |
| Blake Corum · Rec | U 0.5 | $2.45 | 54% (expects 0.4) | ✗ missed |
| Blake Corum · Rush yds | U 46.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 48.2) | ✓ landed |
| Kyren Williams · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.62 | 77% (expects 1.5) | ✗ missed |
| Kyren Williams · Rec yds | U 13.5 | $1.85 | 64% (expects 10.8) | ✗ missed |
| Kyren Williams · Rush yds | U 55.5 | $1.89 | 53% (expects 63.7) | ✗ missed |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 1.8) | ✓ landed |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass yds | U 241.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 257.6) | ✗ missed |
| Matthew Stafford · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.67 | 56% (expects -0.3) | ✗ missed |

**Denver Broncos** (DEN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix · Rush yds | U 16.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 13.1) | ✓ landed |
| Bo Nix · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.66 | 64% (expects 1.0) | ✗ missed |
| Bo Nix · Pass yds | U 211.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 232.6) | ✓ landed |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 65% (expects 2.8) | ✓ landed |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.85 | 63% (expects 36.3) | ✗ missed |
| Evan Engram · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.98 | 59% (expects 2.0) | ✓ landed |
| Evan Engram · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.72 | 73% (expects 15.8) | ✓ landed |
| Jaylen Waddle · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.16 | 74% (expects 3.2) | ✓ landed |
| Jaylen Waddle · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.22 | 64% (expects -5.3) | ✗ missed |
| Jaylen Waddle · Rec yds | U 59.5 | $1.88 | 73% (expects 44.4) | ✓ landed |
| Pat Bryant · Rec yds | U 26.5 | $1.92 | 73% (expects 15.7) | ✗ missed |
| Pat Bryant · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.10 | 79% (expects 1.4) | ✓ landed |
| Pat Bryant · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.20 | 57% (expects -1.3) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Denver Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1589 vs 1585), but the market favours Los Angeles Rams (@1.70). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1589 · Los Angeles Rams 1585 · ELO difference: 4 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 67 | Los Angeles Rams +22 |
| Receiving Corps | 47 | 52 | Los Angeles Rams +5 |
| Backfield | 49 | 68 | Los Angeles Rams +19 |
| Pass Rush | 62 | 55 | Denver Broncos +7 |
| Secondary | 51 | 64 | Los Angeles Rams +13 |
| Special Teams | 68 | 68 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-28 03:56 UTC (latest tip update)