# Dallas Cowboys v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Dallas Cowboys v Baltimore Ravens?

Alphr's NFL model makes Baltimore Ravens a clear 68% favourite over Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. Predicted result: Baltimore Ravens by 8 in a low-scoring game (48 total, under the 52.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Baltimore Ravens lead on Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The edge is on the Baltimore Ravens line at +5.6%.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Dallas Cowboys v Baltimore Ravens
Mon, 28 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Maracana Stadium · Week 3

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.56 (edge +4.1%) — model probability 68.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ $1.98 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 56.1%
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -6.0%) — model probability 39.4%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 8 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview

**Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm_

Dallas Cowboys meet Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 3 at Maracana Stadium. The model makes Baltimore Ravens the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 68% to see off Dallas Cowboys. That is not a coin flip dressed up nicely. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap, Baltimore Ravens sit at 1540, Dallas Cowboys at 1460, a 79-point edge that does not happen by accident.

Dig into the positional numbers and the picture gets interesting rather than one-sided. Baltimore Ravens own the matchup, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. Their backfield rates at 89 against Dallas Cowboys' 58, which is not a gap, it is a canyon. Their pass rush also edges it 53 to 49. Dallas Cowboys get the secondary at 63 to Baltimore Ravens' 59, the one factor the model actually hands them. Quarterback and Rest Advantage are even, Dak Prescott against Lamar Jackson, nothing in it either way on paper.

History leans hard one way. Baltimore Ravens have won 6 of the last 7 meetings, Dallas Cowboys managing just the one. The most recent clash, 2024 Week 3, went to Baltimore Ravens 28-25 at AT&T Stadium, so this is not a rivalry Dallas Cowboys have had much joy in lately.

Form is close enough to call level on paper, both sides 1-1 this season, both undefeated in their own patch, Dallas Cowboys 1-0 at home, Baltimore Ravens 1-0 on the road. Dallas Cowboys are scoring 28.5 and conceding 24.0 per game so far, Baltimore Ravens 29.0 for and 23.5 against, near enough a wash. Zoom out to the last five though and Baltimore Ravens have been the better outfit: 29.4 points a game to Dallas Cowboys' 24.2, conceding 25 to Dallas Cowboys' 27.8, and an average margin of plus 4.4 against Dallas Cowboys' minus 3.6. The recent run reads Dallas Cowboys LWLLW, Baltimore Ravens LWLWL. Streaky both, but Baltimore Ravens have the better numbers sitting under the streaks.

Both quarterbacks are the story lines you would expect, Dak Prescott against Lamar Jackson, with Brian Schottenheimer and Jesse Minter running the shows. Rest is a non-issue, seven days apiece. Kickoff is Monday local time and they are playing it out at the Maracana on matrixturf, which is its own kind of novelty for this fixture.

On the scoreboard the model has Baltimore Ravens winning by 8.0, with the game landing around 48 points combined. The market is a touch tighter, Baltimore Ravens -2.5 and a total of 51.5, so the model sees this as a bit more one-sided and a bit lower scoring than the market is pricing it.

Market prices have Dallas Cowboys out at $2.14 and Baltimore Ravens in at $1.74, so no surprises on who is favourite. The model's happy to back that lean and reckons there is a bit of value in it too, rating Baltimore Ravens' true chance a shade above the price, good for a 4.1% edge. On the margin, Baltimore Ravens -3.5 at $1.98 is the model's own pick, no edge claimed there, it just does not price that market. Same story on the total, Under 52.5 at $1.89 is the lean, not a priced edge.

For the scorer markets, Derrick Henry's the headline: anytime touchdown at $1.50, the model gives him a 66% chance, and if you want to get cute, his first touchdown price is $5.00 at 13%. Javonte Williams anytime is $1.82 at 59%, first at $6.50 for 12%. On the Dallas Cowboys side, Zay Flowers is Baltimore's, anytime at $2.35 for 43%, first at $10.00 for 9%. CeeDee Lamb anytime sits at $2.25, 36% by the model, first touchdown $11.50 at 7%. George Pickens is $2.65 anytime at 30%, and Mark Andrews rounds it out at $2.55, 26%.

For Dallas Cowboys to turn this over it probably comes down to that secondary doing its job and Prescott finding enough through the air to offset a backfield mismatch that is about as lopsided as these ratings get. It is not impossible, upsets happen, but the model's read is clear enough. Baltimore Ravens by 8, a lowish-scoring night by their standards, and a price the model thinks is worth taking seriously.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Dallas Cowboys 1 · Baltimore Ravens 6 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 28-25 (2024) |
| Dallas Cowboys 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 home |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 28.5 for · 24.0 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 29.0 for · 23.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dak Prescott · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Brian Schottenheimer · Jesse Minter |
| Market | Dallas Cowboys $2.14 · Baltimore Ravens $1.74 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 · total 51.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.2pts | Avg Score | 29.4pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 25.0pts |
| -3.6pts | Avg Margin | 4.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L · W2 W | 24.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L | 29.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | W3 | Dallas Cowboys | 25 – 28 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2020 | W13 | Baltimore Ravens | 34 – 17 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2016 | W11 | Dallas Cowboys | 27 – 17 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2012 | W6 | Baltimore Ravens | 31 – 29 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2008 | W16 | Dallas Cowboys | 24 – 33 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Maracana Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dallas Cowboys** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 36% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — |
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 59% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 12% Market priced |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — |
| – | Camden Brown | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 30% Market priced |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — |
| – | Jonathan Mingo | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 4 in 2g | 14/10g (1·2·1·0·0·2·4·0·3·1) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.50 AI 66% AI backs — priced short; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 13% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 43% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Elijah Sarratt | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Josh Cuevas | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 26% Market priced |
| – | Matthew Hibner | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 10 TDs in last 5 (10 rush · 0 pass) · model 66%
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 5 pass) · model 43%
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26%
- Rest of the Ravens: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 59%
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36%
- ⚡ George Pickens — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30%
- Rest of the Cowboys: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Baltimore Ravens** (BAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry · Rec yds | U 11.5 | $1.85 | 64% (expects 8.3) | market |
| Derrick Henry · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.40 | 71% (expects 0.9) | market |
| Derrick Henry · Rush yds | U 88.5 | $1.89 | 55% (expects 94.1) | market |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass yds | U 239.5 | $1.89 | 74% (expects 225.9) | market |
| Lamar Jackson · Rush yds | U 36.5 | $1.89 | 75% (expects 22.9) | market |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.25 | 56% (expects 1.3) | market |
| Mark Andrews · Rec yds | U 47.5 | $1.85 | 84% (expects 18.6) | market |
| Mark Andrews · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.80 | 85% (expects 2.5) | market |
| Rashod Bateman · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.62 | 89% (expects 1.6) | market |
| Rashod Bateman · Rec yds | U 41.5 | $1.85 | 81% (expects 17.2) | market |
| Zay Flowers · Rec yds | U 71.5 | $1.88 | 73% (expects 56.2) | market |
| Zay Flowers · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.71 | 71% (expects 4.3) | market |

**Dallas Cowboys** (DAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.50 | 64% (expects -3.7) | market |
| CeeDee Lamb · Rec | U 6.5 | $2.16 | 73% (expects 5.1) | market |
| CeeDee Lamb · Rec yds | U 84.5 | $1.88 | 68% (expects 74.3) | market |
| Dak Prescott · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.77 | 69% (expects 1.9) | market |
| Dak Prescott · Pass yds | U 263.5 | $1.89 | 69% (expects 267.9) | market |
| Dak Prescott · Rush yds | U 13.5 | $1.93 | 66% (expects 7.7) | market |
| George Pickens · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.70 | 63% (expects 4.9) | market |
| George Pickens · Rec yds | O 59.5 | $1.88 | 55% (expects 70.6) | market |
| Jake Ferguson · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.98 | 59% (expects 3.2) | market |
| Jake Ferguson · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.88 | 70% (expects 19.8) | market |
| Javonte Williams · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.35 | 76% (expects 1.6) | market |
| Javonte Williams · Rush yds | U 59.5 | $1.88 | 63% (expects 57.1) | market |
| Javonte Williams · Rec yds | U 17.5 | $1.88 | 78% (expects 5.7) | market |
| Ryan Flournoy · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.55 | 74% (expects 2.3) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dallas Cowboys 1460 · Baltimore Ravens 1540 · ELO difference: 79 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Dallas Cowboys | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 56 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 46 | Dallas Cowboys +8 |
| Backfield | 58 | 89 | Baltimore Ravens +31 |
| Pass Rush | 49 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 63 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 59 | 65 | Baltimore Ravens +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Baltimore Ravens win, around 28–20 (total ~48 — under the 52.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 52.5 line (model projects 48).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-23 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)