# Dallas Cowboys v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dallas Cowboys 31 – 34 Baltimore Ravens

_Baltimore Ravens hold off a fast-finishing Dallas Cowboys._

Half time: 13 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dallas Cowboys 32% / Baltimore Ravens 68% · Maracana Stadium · Mon, 28 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Dallas Cowboys: Javonte Williams (11' Tipped ⚡), Jake Ferguson (44'), KaVontae Turpin (51') · Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (14' Tipped ⚡), Derrick Henry (19' Tipped ⚡), Chris Moore (42'), Matthew Hibner (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 68% | Won |
| Dallas Cowboys | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.0 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 09:55 am_

Dallas Cowboys 31–34 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 3 at Maracana Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys brought clashing plans to Maracana Stadium and the result fell out of that contrast. Baltimore prioritised patience and ball control on the ground, piling up 192 rushing yards at 45 per cent of their total output. Dallas chased raw metres through the air and finished with more overall yardage, yet the Ravens still walked away 34-31 winners in a contest decided by one late score.

Dallas generated 276 of their 424 total yards through the pass. Dak Prescott went 25 of 40 for those 276 yards and one touchdown. Lamar Jackson was cleaner for Baltimore, hitting 15 of 20 for 186 yards and two touchdowns, but the real damage came on the ground where the Ravens simply controlled the clock better.

The first quarter set the tone for the back-and-forth. With 4:32 left Javonte Williams scored for Dallas to make it 9-0. Derrick Henry answered at 1:18, cutting the margin to 10-6, and the quarter closed 10-7. Henry struck again in the second quarter with 11:23 remaining, putting Baltimore in front 13-10. By half-time the Ravens led 17-13 after adding a field goal.

Baltimore entered the match with a clear edge in backfield strength, rated 89 against Dallas's 58, and it showed. Henry finished with two touchdowns. Williams led all rushers with 98 yards on 19 carries and one touchdown for the Cowboys, but the Ravens' patience repeatedly bled the clock.

The third quarter stayed tight. Chris Moore scored for Baltimore at 3:44 to push the lead to 23-13. Jake Ferguson replied at 1:48, trimming it to 24-19, and the quarter ended 24-21. Dallas seized the lead in the fourth when KaVontae Turpin scored at 9:42 to make it 27-24.

Matthew Hibner delivered the decisive blow with 1:30 left, scoring for Baltimore to move them in front 30-28. They added the final points from the tee and held on for 34-31. The Ravens' four touchdowns came from Henry twice, Moore and Hibner. Dallas replied through Ferguson, Williams and Turpin.

Dallas outgained Baltimore 424 yards to 378 and won the first-down battle 24 to 20. They also lost the turnover battle 1 to 0, and that proved the difference on the scoreboard. Baltimore avoided mistakes, leaned on their 192 rushing yards and converted their chances when it counted.

Alphr's model correctly predicted a Baltimore Ravens win at 68 per cent probability. The predicted margin of 8.0 was reasonable against the actual three-point result. The game's 65 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 48. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 31 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 34 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:10 | Dallas Cowboys | FG | Brandon Aubrey | 3-0 |
| Q1 4:32 | Dallas Cowboys | TD | Javonte Williams | 10-0 |
| Q1 1:18 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Derrick Henry | 10-7 |
| Q2 11:23 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Derrick Henry | 10-14 |
| Q2 4:44 | Baltimore Ravens | FG | Tyler Loop | 10-17 |
| Q2 0:18 | Dallas Cowboys | FG | Brandon Aubrey | 13-17 |
| Q3 3:44 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Chris Moore | 13-24 |
| Q3 1:48 | Dallas Cowboys | TD | Jake Ferguson | 21-24 |
| Q4 9:42 | Dallas Cowboys | TD | KaVontae Turpin | 28-24 |
| Q4 1:30 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Matthew Hibner | 28-31 |
| Q4 0:07 | Dallas Cowboys | FG | Brandon Aubrey | 31-31 |
| Q4 0:00 | Baltimore Ravens | FG | Tyler Loop | 31-34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| **424** | Total Yards | 378 |
| **276** | Passing Yards | 186 |
| 148 | Rushing Yards | **192** |
| **24** | First Downs | 20 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **1** |
| **12.4** | Offensive EPA | 7.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 68% probability. The predicted margin of 8.0 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 65 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 48. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.56 (edge +4.1%) — model probability 68.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ $1.98 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 56.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -6.0%) — model probability 39.4% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 8 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 68% to see off Dallas Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 79 ELO points clear, 1540 to 1460.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 8.0, with the two sides combining for about 48. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Baltimore Ravens have won 6 of the last 7 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 28-25 in 2024 Week 3.

Dallas Cowboys went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 28.5 points for and 24.0 against.

Baltimore Ravens went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 1-0 away, averaging 29.0 points for and 23.5 against.

Dak Prescott starts under centre for Dallas Cowboys, Lamar Jackson for Baltimore Ravens, with Brian Schottenheimer and Jesse Minter calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Dallas Cowboys $2.45 and Baltimore Ravens $1.56, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -3.5 and the total at 52.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Dallas Cowboys 1 · Baltimore Ravens 6 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 28-25 (2024) |
| Dallas Cowboys 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 home |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 28.5 for · 24.0 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2026 so far | 1-1 · 1-0 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 29.0 for · 23.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dak Prescott · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Brian Schottenheimer · Jesse Minter |
| Market | Dallas Cowboys $2.45 · Baltimore Ravens $1.56 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 · total 52.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dallas Cowboys | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.2pts | Avg Score | 29.4pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 25.0pts |
| -3.6pts | Avg Margin | 4.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L · W2 W | 24.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 W · W2 L | 29.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Dallas Cowboys | 31 – 34 | Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens 68% ✓ |
| 2024 | W3 | Dallas Cowboys | 25 – 28 | Baltimore Ravens | not priced |
| 2020 | W13 | Baltimore Ravens | 34 – 17 | Dallas Cowboys | not priced |
| 2016 | W11 | Dallas Cowboys | 27 – 17 | Baltimore Ravens | not priced |
| 2012 | W6 | Baltimore Ravens | 31 – 29 | Dallas Cowboys | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Maracana Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 4 in 2g | 14/10g (1·2·1·0·0·2·4·0·3·1) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.50 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 19' |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Josh Cuevas | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Matthew Hibner | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 10 TDs in last 5 (10 rush · 0 pass) · model 66% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 5 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Moore, M.Hibner

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 59% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ George Pickens — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Ferguson, K.Turpin

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Baltimore Ravens** (BAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry · Rec yds | U 11.5 | $1.85 | 64% (expects 8.3) | ✓ landed |
| Derrick Henry · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.40 | 71% (expects 0.9) | ✓ landed |
| Derrick Henry · Rush yds | U 88.5 | $1.89 | 55% (expects 94.1) | ✗ missed |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass yds | U 239.5 | $1.89 | 74% (expects 225.9) | ✓ landed |
| Lamar Jackson · Rush yds | U 36.5 | $1.89 | 75% (expects 22.9) | ✗ missed |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.25 | 56% (expects 1.3) | ✗ missed |
| Mark Andrews · Rec yds | U 47.5 | $1.85 | 84% (expects 18.6) | ✓ landed |
| Mark Andrews · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.80 | 85% (expects 2.5) | ✓ landed |
| Rashod Bateman · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.62 | 89% (expects 1.6) | ✓ landed |
| Rashod Bateman · Rec yds | U 41.5 | $1.85 | 81% (expects 17.2) | ✓ landed |
| Zay Flowers · Rec yds | U 71.5 | $1.88 | 73% (expects 56.2) | ✗ missed |
| Zay Flowers · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.71 | 71% (expects 4.3) | ✓ landed |

**Dallas Cowboys** (DAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.50 | 64% (expects -3.7) | ✓ landed |
| CeeDee Lamb · Rec | U 6.5 | $2.16 | 73% (expects 5.1) | ✗ missed |
| CeeDee Lamb · Rec yds | U 84.5 | $1.88 | 68% (expects 74.3) | ✗ missed |
| Dak Prescott · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.77 | 69% (expects 1.9) | ✗ missed |
| Dak Prescott · Pass yds | U 263.5 | $1.89 | 69% (expects 267.9) | ✗ missed |
| Dak Prescott · Rush yds | U 13.5 | $1.93 | 66% (expects 7.7) | ✗ missed |
| George Pickens · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.70 | 63% (expects 4.9) | ✗ missed |
| George Pickens · Rec yds | O 59.5 | $1.88 | 55% (expects 70.6) | ✓ landed |
| Jake Ferguson · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.98 | 59% (expects 3.2) | ✓ landed |
| Jake Ferguson · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.88 | 70% (expects 19.8) | ✓ landed |
| Javonte Williams · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.35 | 76% (expects 1.6) | ✓ landed |
| Javonte Williams · Rush yds | U 59.5 | $1.88 | 63% (expects 57.1) | ✗ missed |
| Javonte Williams · Rec yds | U 17.5 | $1.88 | 78% (expects 5.7) | ✓ landed |
| Ryan Flournoy · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.55 | 74% (expects 2.3) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dallas Cowboys 1460 · Baltimore Ravens 1540 · ELO difference: 79 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Dallas Cowboys | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 56 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 46 | Dallas Cowboys +8 |
| Backfield | 58 | 89 | Baltimore Ravens +31 |
| Pass Rush | 49 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 63 | 59 | Even |
| Special Teams | 59 | 65 | Baltimore Ravens +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 23:55 UTC (latest tip update)