# Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles?

Alphr's NFL model rates Chicago Bears a narrow 52% favourite over Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Chicago Bears by 1 in a low-scoring game (40 total, under the 41.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** Philadelphia Eagles are stronger on paper, but Secondary tips the model to Chicago Bears. The edge is on the Chicago Bears line at +17.9%.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles
Tue, 29 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · Soldier Field · Week 3

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $2.92 (edge +17.9%) — model probability 52.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +5.5 @ $1.86 (edge +5.2%) — model probability 59.0%
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $3.40 (edge +0.8%) — model probability 30.2%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 1 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview

**Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm_

Chicago Bears meet Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 3 at Soldier Field, and the model can barely split them: Chicago Bears just edge it. Below: the read, the win split and where the value sits.

The model gives this one to the Chicago Bears, 52% to 48%, and it is about as line ball as these calls get. Worth saying straight up: the ratings do not agree. Philadelphia Eagles sit 47 points clear on ELO, 1578 to 1531, and Recent Form also points their way with 3 wins from their last 5 against 2 for the Bears. The model is backing the Chicago Bears against the ratings gap anyway, and it must be weighting Secondary hardest to do it.

Look at the positional split and you can see why. Chicago Bears have a 74 rated Backfield against Philadelphia Eagles 56, that is the biggest gap on the sheet. Secondary is 69 to 61 in the Bears favour too, and Special Teams is 65 to 51. Philadelphia Eagles only really lead on Receiving Corps, 64 to 63, which is next to nothing. Quarterback, Pass Rush and Rest Advantage are all rated even.

History is tight as well. Chicago Bears have won 5 of the last 12 meetings, Philadelphia Eagles 7. Last time out, back in Week 13 of last season, Chicago Bears won 24-15 at Lincoln Financial Field, so there is recent form on the head-to-head to lean on even if the overall count favours the other mob.

Form lines are worth a look side by side. Chicago Bears are 1-1 this season, 0-1 at home, scoring 31 and conceding 23 a game, on a WL run their last five. Philadelphia Eagles are 2-0, 1-0 on the road, scoring 24 and conceding 21, riding a WW finish. Across the last five, Chicago Bears average 25.2 points scored to 22.4 conceded, a margin of plus 2.8. Philadelphia Eagles average 19.4 to 20.2, minus 0.8. The Bears are the more prolific side, the Eagles are the more consistent one, take your pick.

Both sides come in on 8 days rest, so nothing there. Tyson Bagent starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia Eagles. Ben Johnson and Nick Sirianni are the two coaches sending out the game plans, for what that is worth to a model that does not care about press conferences.

On the scoreboard, the model has Chicago Bears winning by 1.1, with the two teams combining for around 40 points. That sits well under the market total of 46.5, so the model reckons this one plays low. The market has Chicago Bears as favourites at $1.85 with a spread of -1.5, Philadelphia Eagles out at $1.98.

The published numbers back the models read. Chicago Bears at $2.92 on the head-to-head carries a model edge of 17.9%, which is a decent gap for a coin-flip game. The margin pick is Chicago Bears at the 5.5 line for $1.86, and the total pick is Under 41.5 at $1.89, both unpriced by the model itself but worth knowing.

For the prop hunters: D'Andre Swift anytime is $2.20 with the model giving him a 50% chance, the shortest number on the sheet. Saquon Barkley anytime sits at $1.96, model at 47%. Colston Loveland is a longer play anytime at $5.75 (30%), Kyle Monangai $3.05 (29%), DeVonta Smith $2.85 (29%) and Luther Burden III $4.90 (27%). First-scorer markets are longer again, Swift $7.00 at 12%, Barkley $6.00 at 11%.

So here is where it lands. The ratings and the recent form both say Philadelphia Eagles, and that is not nothing, 47 ELO points is a real gap. But the model is happy to wear that against a clear edge in the Backfield and Secondary, and it has picked a slim, defensible number rather than a certainty. If Philadelphia Eagles are going to get there, it is their form and rating class doing the work against a Chicago Bears side that scores heavier but leaks more. Call it what it is: 52-48, and worth knowing exactly why before you back it.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 5 · Philadelphia Eagles 7 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 24-15 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-1 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 31.0 for · 23.0 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 24.0 for · 21.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyson Bagent · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Nick Sirianni |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.85 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.98 |
| Spread | Chicago Bears -1.5 · total 46.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.8pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W18 L · WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 L | 25.2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | W17 W · W18 L · WC L · W1 W · W2 W | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 15 – 24 | Chicago Bears |
| 2022 | W15 | Chicago Bears | 20 – 25 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2019 | W9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 22 – 14 | Chicago Bears |
| 2018 | W18 | Chicago Bears | 15 – 16 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2017 | W12 | Philadelphia Eagles | 31 – 3 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 3 in 2g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0·3·0) | 2/3g | 8/21g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 50% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 11/51g | 22% | — |
| – | Jahdae Walker | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/7g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 43% | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/11g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 29% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.75 AI 30% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/5g | 10% | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.90 AI 27% Market priced |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/16g | 19% | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/15g | 16% | — |
| – | Sam Roush | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Tyson Bagent | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 14% | — |
| – | Zavion Thomas | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 29% Market priced |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 22% | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | E.J. Jenkins | TE | no games | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — |
| – | Elijah Moore | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Hollywood Brown | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 3/1g | 42% | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — |
| – | Makai Lemon | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 47% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% Market priced |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 47%
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29%
- Rest of the Eagles: 10 TDs across the team's last 5

**Chicago Bears** (4 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 50%
- ⚡ Colston Loveland 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30%
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29%
- ⚡ Luther Burden III — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27%
- Rest of the Bears: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (PHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith · Rec yds | U 72.5 | $1.88 | 73% (expects 57.0) | market |
| DeVonta Smith · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.94 | 73% (expects 4.2) | market |
| Jalen Hurts · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.65 | 72% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Jalen Hurts · Pass yds | U 218.5 | $1.88 | 63% (expects 230.4) | market |
| Jalen Hurts · Rush yds | U 24.5 | $1.90 | 62% (expects 17.7) | market |
| Saquon Barkley · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.67 | 83% (expects 1.3) | market |
| Saquon Barkley · Rush yds | U 74.5 | $1.88 | 79% (expects 50.1) | market |
| Saquon Barkley · Rec yds | U 14.5 | $1.89 | 59% (expects 13.6) | market |

**Chicago Bears** (CHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland · Rec yds | O 25.5 | $1.95 | 60% (expects 39.2) | market |
| Colston Loveland · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.60 | 59% (expects 3.3) | market |
| D'Andre Swift · Rush yds | U 65.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 64.9) | market |
| Kyle Monangai · Rush yds | U 43.5 | $1.85 | 58% (expects 46.3) | market |
| Luther Burden III · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.80 | 65% (expects 2.8) | market |
| Luther Burden III · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.80 | 60% (expects 33.6) | market |
| Rome Odunze · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.80 | 59% (expects 2.1) | market |
| Rome Odunze · Rec yds | O 25.5 | $1.85 | 60% (expects 39.4) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Philadelphia Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1578 vs 1531), but the market favours Chicago Bears (@1.85). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1531 · Philadelphia Eagles 1578 · ELO difference: 47 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 65 | 65 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 64 | Even |
| Backfield | 74 | 56 | Chicago Bears +18 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 69 | 61 | Chicago Bears +8 |
| Special Teams | 65 | 51 | Chicago Bears +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Chicago Bears win, around 21–20 (total ~40 — under the 41.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 41.5 line (model projects 40).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-23 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)