# Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 27 – 7 Philadelphia Eagles

_Chicago Bears overpower Philadelphia Eagles._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 52% / Philadelphia Eagles 48% · Soldier Field · Tue, 29 Sept, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: Luther Burden III (7' Tipped ⚡), Kalif Raymond (40'), Case Keenum (53') · Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts (30')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 52% | Won |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 29 Sept 2026, 01:26 pm_

Chicago Bears 27–7 Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 3 at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Chicago Bears controlled the scoreboard pressure from the opening quarter and never let the Philadelphia Eagles back into it, winning 27-7 at Soldier Field. They led after the first touchdown and stretched the gap in the second half until the result sat safe at 20 points. The Eagles chased the whole way and finished with nothing.

Luther Burden III put the first points on the board for the Bears with 8:47 left in the first quarter, giving them a 6-0 lead that became 7-0 by the end of the quarter. The Eagles' only reply came from Jalen Hurts as the clock wound down in the second, closing the gap to 10-6. A converted kick made it 10-7 at half-time.

After the half the Bears went on a run. Kalif Raymond crossed with 5:47 left in the third quarter to push the lead out to 19-7, which converted to 20-7 by quarter's end. Case Keenum then scored with 7:19 remaining in the fourth quarter, extending the lead to 26-7. The final kick made it 27-7, and the Eagles never looked like closing the gap.

The statistics bore out the scoreboard pressure. The Bears finished with 375 total yards to the Eagles' 260. They had more passing yards with 247 against 153, and more rushing yards, 128 to 107. The Bears also secured 20 first downs compared to the Eagles' 13, showing more consistent movement of the ball.

Turnovers were a clear factor. The Eagles gave up the ball three times, while the Bears had none. This gave Chicago more opportunities to capitalise on their offensive efficiency. The Bears' Offensive EPA of 1.9 compared to the Eagles' -10.7 shows the difference in how each side used their possessions.

The Bears' pass rush also made an impact, recording two sacks to the Eagles' zero. This disrupted Philadelphia's rhythm and contributed to their lower passing yardage. The pre-match positional ratings had the Bears' Pass Rush slightly stronger at 58 compared to the Eagles' 55, which played out on the field.

Individually, Case Keenum finished 24-of-34 for 247 passing yards. Jalen Hurts was 16-of-25 for 153 yards. D'Andre Swift led all rushers with 84 yards on 20 carries. Kalif Raymond was the top receiver for the game, with six catches for 90 yards and a touchdown.

Coming into the match, the Eagles had a better recent record, with three wins from their last five compared to the Bears' two. However, the Bears had a higher average score, 25.2 points to 19.4, and a positive average margin of 2.8 points, suggesting their wins were more convincing. This performance certainly fitted that pattern.

Alphr’s model correctly predicted a Chicago Bears win, giving them a 52% probability. The expected margin of 1.1 points was well short of the actual 20-point difference, but the overall result and model picks were accurate.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 7 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 27 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:47 | Chicago Bears | TD | Luther Burden III | 7-0 |
| Q2 1:52 | Chicago Bears | FG | Cairo Santos | 10-0 |
| Q2 0:00 | Philadelphia Eagles | TD | Jalen Hurts | 10-7 |
| Q3 10:17 | Chicago Bears | FG | Cairo Santos | 13-7 |
| Q3 5:47 | Chicago Bears | TD | Kalif Raymond | 20-7 |
| Q4 7:19 | Chicago Bears | TD | Case Keenum | 27-7 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **375** | Total Yards | 260 |
| **247** | Passing Yards | 153 |
| **128** | Rushing Yards | 107 |
| **20** | First Downs | 13 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **1.9** | Offensive EPA | -10.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Chicago Bears to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.1 but the actual margin was 20 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $2.92 (edge +17.9%) — model probability 52.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +5.5 @ $1.86 (edge +5.2%) — model probability 59.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $3.40 (edge +0.8%) — model probability 30.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 1 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles. The model can't split them, landing on Chicago Bears at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: Philadelphia Eagles sit 47 ELO points clear, 1578 to 1531, so the model is backing Chicago Bears against the ratings gap. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Chicago Bears.

On paper Philadelphia Eagles shade it, ahead on 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Recent Form. The model still sides with Chicago Bears, which says Secondary carry the most weight. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 40. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 24-15 in 2025 Week 13.

Chicago Bears went 1-1 in 2026 so far, 0-1 at home, averaging 31.0 points for and 23.0 against.

Philadelphia Eagles went 2-0 in 2026 so far, 1-0 away, averaging 24.0 points for and 21.0 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia Eagles, with Ben Johnson and Nick Sirianni calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Chicago Bears $2.92 and Philadelphia Eagles $1.41, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 5 · Philadelphia Eagles 7 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 24-15 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2026 so far | 1-1 · 0-1 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 31.0 for · 23.0 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 24.0 for · 21.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Nick Sirianni |
| Market | Chicago Bears $2.92 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.41 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 · total 41.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.8pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W18 L · WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 L | 25.2 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | W17 W · W18 L · WC L · W1 W · W2 W | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Chicago Bears | 27 – 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | Chicago Bears 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | W13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 15 – 24 | Chicago Bears | not priced |
| 2022 | W15 | Chicago Bears | 20 – 25 | Philadelphia Eagles | not priced |
| 2019 | W9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 22 – 14 | Chicago Bears | not priced |
| 2018 | W18 | Chicago Bears | 15 – 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 3 in 2g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0·3·0) | 2/3g | 8/21g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 50% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 11/51g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/11g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Case Keenum | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.75 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.90 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/16g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Sam Roush | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zavion Thomas | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Andy Dalton | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 3/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Makai Lemon | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Hurts

**Chicago Bears** (4 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 50% · no TD
- ⚡ Colston Loveland 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Luther Burden III — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Bears: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Raymond, C.Keenum

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (PHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith · Rec yds | U 72.5 | $1.88 | 73% (expects 57.0) | ✓ landed |
| DeVonta Smith · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.94 | 73% (expects 4.2) | ✗ missed |
| Dontayvion Wicks · Rec yds | U 41.5 | $1.88 | 80% (expects 19.9) | ✓ landed |
| Dontayvion Wicks · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.36 | 77% (expects 1.5) | ✓ landed |
| Jalen Hurts · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.65 | 72% (expects 1.0) | ✓ landed |
| Jalen Hurts · Pass yds | U 218.5 | $1.88 | 63% (expects 230.4) | ✓ landed |
| Jalen Hurts · Rush yds | U 24.5 | $1.90 | 62% (expects 17.7) | ✗ missed |
| Makai Lemon · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.85 | 75% (expects 1.7) | ✗ missed |
| Makai Lemon · Rec yds | U 30.5 | $1.80 | 92% (expects 0.3) | ✓ landed |
| Saquon Barkley · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.67 | 83% (expects 1.3) | ✓ landed |
| Saquon Barkley · Rush yds | U 74.5 | $1.88 | 79% (expects 50.1) | ✗ missed |
| Saquon Barkley · Rec yds | U 14.5 | $1.89 | 59% (expects 13.6) | ✓ landed |

**Chicago Bears** (CHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland · Rec yds | O 25.5 | $1.95 | 60% (expects 39.2) | ✓ landed |
| Colston Loveland · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.60 | 59% (expects 3.3) | ✓ landed |
| D'Andre Swift · Rush yds | U 65.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 64.9) | ✗ missed |
| Kalif Raymond · Rec yds | U 30.5 | $1.95 | 75% (expects 16.8) | ✗ missed |
| Kalif Raymond · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.66 | 91% (expects 1.4) | ✗ missed |
| Kyle Monangai · Rush yds | U 43.5 | $1.85 | 58% (expects 46.3) | ✓ landed |
| Luther Burden III · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.80 | 65% (expects 2.8) | ✗ missed |
| Luther Burden III · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.80 | 60% (expects 33.6) | ✗ missed |
| Rome Odunze · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.80 | 59% (expects 2.1) | ✗ missed |
| Rome Odunze · Rec yds | O 25.5 | $1.85 | 60% (expects 39.4) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1531 · Philadelphia Eagles 1578 · ELO difference: 47 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 65 | 65 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 64 | Even |
| Backfield | 74 | 56 | Chicago Bears +18 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 69 | 61 | Chicago Bears +8 |
| Special Teams | 65 | 51 | Chicago Bears +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-29 03:26 UTC (latest tip update)