# Buffalo Bills v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Week 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Buffalo Bills 24 – 16 Los Angeles Chargers

_Buffalo Bills charge down Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Buffalo Bills 67% / Los Angeles Chargers 33% · Highmark Stadium · Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (30' Tipped ⚡), Josh Allen (53' Tipped ⚡), James Cook (57' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Chargers: Keaton Mitchell (5')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 67% | Won |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 Sept 2026, 10:28 pm · Last updated: 28 Sept 2026, 06:39 am_

Buffalo Bills 24–16 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 3 at Highmark Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Buffalo Bills beat the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16 at Highmark Stadium. That eight-point margin looks tidy enough on paper, yet the numbers underneath say the contest was both closer and more lopsided than the final score suggests.

The game opened with the Chargers seizing control. Keaton Mitchell scored with 10:33 left in the first quarter for a 6-0 lead. By the end of the first quarter it was 10-0. Buffalo stayed quiet until 0:16 remained in the second, when Josh Allen plunged in to make it 10-9. A conversion squared the ledger at 10-10 by half-time. The Chargers nudged ahead again by the end of the third, 13-10.

Buffalo seized the lead for the first time with 7:35 left in the fourth. Josh Allen scored his second touchdown to push the score to 16-13. James Cook then added another at 3:13, stretching it to 23-13. The Bills closed out proceedings 24-16.

Buffalo put up 380 total yards compared to Los Angeles' 357. The Bills did most of their damage on the ground, with 176 rushing yards, accounting for 46% of their total offensive output. James Cook was central to this, leading all rushers with 154 yards from 24 carries and one touchdown. Josh Allen finished with 16 completions from 26 attempts for 204 passing yards, adding two touchdowns and two interceptions. For the Chargers, Justin Herbert completed 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Tre Harris was the top target of the game, securing 6 catches for 76 yards.

The Bills' path to victory was complicated by five turnovers, against the Chargers’ one. This meant the Bills were forced to overcome a significant ball security deficit. The Chargers’ pass rush capitalised on this, recording four sacks compared to Buffalo's two. Despite this, the Bills still managed to generate 21 first downs to the Chargers' 17. Snap for snap, Buffalo were the more efficient offence, 1.7 to -4.6 in offensive EPA, a 6.3-point edge that ultimately told.

Alphr's model had picked the Buffalo Bills to win with a 67% probability. This reflected their stronger form coming into the match, with four wins from their last five outings compared to the Chargers' five consecutive losses. The Bills had averaged 33.8 points per game in their last five, conceding 25.4 points, for an average margin of 8.4 points. The Chargers, in contrast, averaged 10 points per game, conceded 21.4 points, and had an average margin of -11.4 points. The model had projected the Bills to win by 5.8 points, close to the final 8-point margin.

The Bills’ higher positional strength ratings in quarterback, receiving corps, backfield, and special teams also played out as expected. The Bills' quarterback rating was 67 compared to the Chargers' 48. Their receiving corps rated 61 against 52, their backfield 48 against 44, and special teams 70 against 49. The Chargers held a slight edge in secondary rating, 55 to 53, and their pass rush rated 53 to the Bills' 54.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 16 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:33 | Los Angeles Chargers | TD | Keaton Mitchell | 0-7 |
| Q1 0:34 | Los Angeles Chargers | FG | — | 0-10 |
| Q2 6:02 | Buffalo Bills | FG | — | 3-10 |
| Q2 0:16 | Buffalo Bills | TD | Josh Allen | 10-10 |
| Q3 6:12 | Los Angeles Chargers | FG | — | 10-13 |
| Q4 7:35 | Buffalo Bills | TD | Josh Allen | 17-13 |
| Q4 3:13 | Buffalo Bills | TD | James Cook III | 24-13 |
| Q4 1:56 | Los Angeles Chargers | FG | — | 24-16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| **380** | Total Yards | 357 |
| 204 | Passing Yards | **226** |
| **176** | Rushing Yards | 131 |
| **21** | First Downs | 17 |
| 5 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| **1.7** | Offensive EPA | -4.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Buffalo Bills to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Buffalo Bills by 5.8 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.24 (edge -13.2%) — model probability 67.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 @ $1.83 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 52.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Buffalo Bills 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 39.7% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.94 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 6 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Buffalo Bills here: 67% to see off Los Angeles Chargers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Buffalo Bills sit 192 ELO points clear, 1642 to 1450. Form leans Buffalo Bills' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Los Angeles Chargers.

Buffalo Bills own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Buffalo Bills by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 53. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Buffalo Bills to win, not to win big.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Buffalo Bills took the most recent meeting 24-22 in 2023 Week 16.

Buffalo Bills went 2-0 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 38.5 points for and 31.0 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 0-2 in 2026 so far, 0-0 away, averaging 14.0 points for and 26.0 against.

Josh Allen starts under centre for Buffalo Bills, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Sean McDermott and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

Buffalo Bills come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Buffalo Bills favourites, Buffalo Bills $1.24 and Los Angeles Chargers $4.10, with the spread at Buffalo Bills -7.5 and the total at 50.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Buffalo Bills 5 · Los Angeles Chargers 7 |
| Last meeting | Buffalo Bills 24-22 (2023) |
| Buffalo Bills 2026 so far | 2-0 · 1-0 home |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 38.5 for · 31.0 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2026 so far | 0-2 · 0-0 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 14.0 for · 26.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Josh Allen · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Sean McDermott · Jim Harbaugh |
| Rest | Buffalo Bills 10d · Los Angeles Chargers 7d |
| Market | Buffalo Bills $1.24 · Los Angeles Chargers $4.10 |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -7.5 · total 50.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 33.8pts | Avg Score | 10.0pts |
| 25.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.4pts |
| 8.4pts | Avg Margin | -11.4pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | W18 W · WC W · DIV L · W1 W · W2 W | 33.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W17 L · W18 L · WC L · W1 L · W2 L | 10.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Buffalo Bills lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W3 | Buffalo Bills | 24 – 16 | Los Angeles Chargers | Buffalo Bills 67% ✓ |
| 2023 | W16 | Los Angeles Chargers | 22 – 24 | Buffalo Bills | not priced |
| 2020 | W12 | Buffalo Bills | 27 – 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | not priced |
| 2018 | W2 | Buffalo Bills | 20 – 31 | Los Angeles Chargers | not priced |
| 2017 | W11 | Los Angeles Chargers | 54 – 24 | Buffalo Bills | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Highmark Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 4 in 2g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·2·0·2·2) | 3/3g | 2/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.77 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 53' |
| – | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | James Cook | RB | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·3·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 54% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Hawes | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Keon Coleman | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ty Johnson | RB | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Alec Ingold | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Mitchell

**Buffalo Bills** (5 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 57% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Josh Allen 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (8 rush · 0 pass) · model 52% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Dalton Kincaid 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Khalil Shakir — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Bills: 10 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (LAC)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert · Rush yds | O 19.5 | $1.88 | 60% (expects 23.3) | ✗ missed |
| Justin Herbert · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.60 | 64% (expects 1.1) | ✓ landed |
| Justin Herbert · Pass yds | U 222.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 210.3) | ✗ missed |
| Ladd McConkey · Rec yds | U 52.5 | $1.88 | 73% (expects 36.8) | ✗ missed |
| Ladd McConkey · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.77 | 78% (expects 2.9) | ✓ landed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rec yds | U 11.5 | $1.92 | 58% (expects 11.3) | ✓ landed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rush yds | U 60.5 | $1.88 | 64% (expects 54.7) | ✓ landed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.72 | 59% (expects 2.1) | ✗ missed |
| Quentin Johnston · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $2.00 | 58% (expects 34.9) | ✗ missed |
| Quentin Johnston · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.65 | 67% (expects 2.7) | ✓ landed |
| Tre' Harris · Rec yds | U 33.5 | $1.88 | 88% (expects 13.4) | ✗ missed |
| Tre' Harris · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.31 | 76% (expects 1.6) | ✗ missed |

**Buffalo Bills** (BUF)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.82 | 75% (expects 3.1) | ✓ landed |
| Dalton Kincaid · Rec yds | U 55.5 | $1.90 | 68% (expects 43.9) | ✓ landed |
| DJ Moore · Rec yds | U 49.5 | $1.91 | 81% (expects 25.0) | ✗ missed |
| DJ Moore · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.15 | 78% (expects 1.8) | ✗ missed |
| James Cook III · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.68 | 77% (expects 1.6) | ✓ landed |
| James Cook III · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.80 | 64% (expects 12.4) | ✓ landed |
| James Cook III · Rush yds | U 81.5 | $1.91 | 62% (expects 80.7) | ✗ missed |
| Josh Allen · Pass yds | U 239.5 | $1.90 | 58% (expects 252.9) | ✓ landed |
| Josh Allen · Rush yds | U 32.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 34.7) | ✓ landed |
| Josh Allen · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.27 | 53% (expects 1.4) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Buffalo Bills 1642 · Los Angeles Chargers 1450 · ELO difference: 192 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Buffalo Bills | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 67 | 48 | Buffalo Bills +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 52 | Buffalo Bills +9 |
| Backfield | 48 | 44 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 53 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 70 | 49 | Buffalo Bills +21 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Buffalo Bills |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Buffalo Bills predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 20:39 UTC (latest tip update)