# San Francisco 49ers v Miami Dolphins — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 35 – 13 Miami Dolphins

_San Francisco 49ers dig past Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 75% / Miami Dolphins 25% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 21 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (11' Tipped ⚡), Brock Purdy (25'), George Kittle (32' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Juszczyk (40'), Christian McCaffrey (42' Tipped ⚡) · Miami Dolphins: Ryan Miller (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 75% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am · Last updated: 21 Sept 2026, 09:20 am_

San Francisco 49ers 35–13 Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 2 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The scoreboard pressure told the story early. The San Francisco 49ers led from the 4:17 mark of the first quarter and never looked back, turning a 7-0 lead at the end of the first into a 14-6 half-time edge and then a 35-6 advantage by the end of the third. Miami Dolphins chased all night and only found the end zone once, late, when the result was long settled. San Francisco 49ers ran out 35-13 winners at Levi's Stadium, a 22-point margin that exposed the gap between the sides.

Christian McCaffrey opened proceedings with a touchdown that made it 5-0. By the end of the first quarter it was 7-0. Brock Purdy added another in the second quarter with 5:24 left, stretching the lead to 13-3 before the sides went to the break at 14-6.

The third quarter became a rout. George Kittle scored with 13:08 left to make it 20-6. Kyle Juszczyk followed at the 5:46 mark for 27-6. Christian McCaffrey then posted his second touchdown of the game with 3:10 remaining in the quarter, pushing the score to 34-6. San Francisco 49ers led 35-6 at the end of the third. Ryan Miller finally got Miami Dolphins on the board with 2:30 left in the fourth, but the 35-13 final said everything about who controlled the match.

San Francisco 49ers compiled 382 total yards to Miami Dolphins' 299 and racked up 22 first downs to 12. The efficiency gap was even starker. Offensive EPA finished 21.6 to -0.1, a 21.7-point swing that explained why one side kept moving the chains and the other could not. Neither team turned the ball over, yet the 49ers dictated terms.

Passing yards told much of the tale. San Francisco 49ers gained 287 through the air against 197. Brock Purdy went 20-of-22 for 287 yards and two touchdowns. George Kittle led all receivers with four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers' pass rush got home four times while Miami Dolphins recorded none, a direct reflection of the pre-game pass-rush ratings of 57 to 54.

Rushing yards stayed close despite the blowout. Miami Dolphins shaded that category 102 to 95, with De'Von Achane carrying 20 times for 74 yards. That output came against a San Francisco 49ers backfield rated 75 compared with the Dolphins' 68, yet it was not enough to shift the momentum.

Positional ratings had pointed to a clear San Francisco 49ers edge across the board. Quarterback sat at 60 versus 57, receiving corps 58 versus 54, secondary 52 versus 47 and special teams 57 versus 52. The recent form backed it up too. San Francisco 49ers owned three wins from their last five, averaging 20.2 points scored and 23.6 conceded for a -3.4 average margin. Miami Dolphins had just one win, 15.8 points scored, 31 conceded and a -15.2 margin. The 49ers also arrived with 10 rest days against seven for their opponents.

Alphr's model correctly called the San Francisco 49ers win at 75% probability. The margin model missed, projecting 6.4 against the actual 22-point spread. Total score landed at 42, close enough to the final 48 within six points. Overall the model went 1/3 on the match. The numbers confirmed what the scoreboard showed from the opening quarter: one team applied constant pressure, the other spent the night reacting.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 35 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 13 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:17 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Christian McCaffrey | 6-0 |
| Q2 9:56 | Miami Dolphins | FG | — | 7-3 |
| Q2 5:24 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Brock Purdy | 14-3 |
| Q2 0:00 | Miami Dolphins | FG | — | 14-6 |
| Q3 13:08 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | George Kittle | 21-6 |
| Q3 5:46 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Kyle Juszczyk | 28-6 |
| Q3 3:10 | San Francisco 49ers | TD | Christian McCaffrey | 35-6 |
| Q4 2:30 | Miami Dolphins | TD | Ryan Miller | 35-13 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **382** | Total Yards | 299 |
| **287** | Passing Yards | 197 |
| 95 | Rushing Yards | **102** |
| **22** | First Downs | 12 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **21.6** | Offensive EPA | -0.1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted San Francisco 49ers to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.4 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 48, within 6 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.10 (edge -15.8%) — model probability 75.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +13.5 @ $1.84 (edge +5.2%) — model probability 59.5% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** San Francisco 49ers 1-13 @ $2.35 (edge -4.2%) — model probability 38.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.87 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 6 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on San Francisco 49ers here: 75% to see off Miami Dolphins. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: San Francisco 49ers sit 172 ELO points clear, 1594 to 1422. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Miami Dolphins.

San Francisco 49ers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has San Francisco 49ers by 6.4, with the two sides combining for about 42. San Francisco 49ers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Miami Dolphins have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Miami Dolphins took the most recent meeting 29-17 in 2024 Week 16.

San Francisco 49ers went 1-0 in 2026 so far, 0-0 at home, averaging 27.0 points for and 7.0 against.

Miami Dolphins went 0-1 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 13.0 points for and 27.0 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Malik Willis for Miami Dolphins, with Kyle Shanahan and Jeff Hafley calling the shots.

San Francisco 49ers come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, San Francisco 49ers $1.10 and Miami Dolphins $7.00, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -13.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | San Francisco 49ers 3 · Miami Dolphins 5 |
| Last meeting | Miami Dolphins 29-17 (2024) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 27.0 for · 7.0 against |
| Miami Dolphins 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-1 away |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 13.0 for · 27.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Malik Willis |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Jeff Hafley |
| Rest | San Francisco 49ers 10d · Miami Dolphins 7d |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $1.10 · Miami Dolphins $7.00 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 · total 46.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.2pts | Avg Score | 15.8pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 31.0pts |
| -3.4pts | Avg Margin | -15.2pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W17 W · W18 L · WC W · DIV L · W1 W | 20.2 |
| Miami Dolphins | W15 L · W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L | 15.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Miami Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W2 | San Francisco 49ers | 35 – 13 | Miami Dolphins | San Francisco 49ers 75% ✓ |
| 2024 | W16 | Miami Dolphins | 29 – 17 | San Francisco 49ers | not priced |
| 2022 | W13 | San Francisco 49ers | 33 – 17 | Miami Dolphins | not priced |
| 2020 | W5 | San Francisco 49ers | 17 – 43 | Miami Dolphins | not priced |
| 2016 | W12 | Miami Dolphins | 31 – 24 | San Francisco 49ers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 21/49g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/8g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mike Evans | WR | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/3g | 3/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 10/30g | 16% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (3·1·1·1·2·1·0·2·0·0) | 3/3g | 29/29g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.50 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.50 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' 42' |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 27/66g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| – | Jacob Cowing | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Thompson | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan James | RB | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kaelon Black | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | KhaDarel Hodge | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 10/64g | 14% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Malik Willis | QB | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Douglas | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chris Bell | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DJ Herman | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Will Kacmarek | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Miami Dolphins** (1 pick)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Miller

**San Francisco 49ers** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 62% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ George Kittle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Mike Evans 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Kaelon Black — 0 TDs in last 1 · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Purdy, K.Juszczyk

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Miami Dolphins** (MIA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Douglas · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.64 | 63% (expects 3.5) | ✗ missed |
| Caleb Douglas · Rec yds | O 35.5 | $1.87 | 84% (expects 64.8) | ✗ missed |
| De'Von Achane · Rush yds | O 50.5 | $1.90 | 85% (expects 83.9) | ✓ landed |
| De'Von Achane · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.20 | 56% (expects 3.6) | ✓ landed |
| De'Von Achane · Rec yds | U 27.5 | $1.90 | 67% (expects 20.7) | ✓ landed |
| Greg Dulcich · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.80 | 70% (expects 17.0) | ✓ landed |
| Greg Dulcich · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.82 | 77% (expects 1.6) | ✓ landed |
| Malik Washington · Rec yds | U 30.5 | $1.90 | 84% (expects 12.5) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Washington · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.60 | 74% (expects 2.3) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Willis · Rush yds | U 40.5 | $1.95 | 85% (expects 18.3) | ✓ landed |
| Malik Willis · Pass yds | O 170.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 181.2) | ✓ landed |
| Malik Willis · Pass TDs | O 0.5 | $1.50 | 72% (expects 1.0) | ✓ landed |

**San Francisco 49ers** (SF)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.53 | 69% (expects 1.9) | ✓ landed |
| Brock Purdy · Pass yds | O 230.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 260.0) | ✓ landed |
| Brock Purdy · Rush yds | U 15.5 | $1.72 | 52% (expects 14.4) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1594 · Miami Dolphins 1422 · ELO difference: 172 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Miami Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 60 | 57 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 54 | Even |
| Backfield | 75 | 68 | San Francisco 49ers +7 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 52 | 47 | San Francisco 49ers +5 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 52 | San Francisco 49ers +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | San Francisco 49ers |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-20 23:20 UTC (latest tip update)