# Los Angeles Rams v New York Giants — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Rams 28 – 6 New York Giants

_Los Angeles Rams run riot over New York Giants._

Half time: 14 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Rams 69% / New York Giants 31% · SoFi Stadium · Tue, 22 Sept, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Rams: Davante Adams (15' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (19' Tipped ⚡), Davante Adams (39' Tipped ⚡), Terrance Ferguson (52') · New York Giants: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 69% | Won |
| New York Giants | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am · Last updated: 22 Sept 2026, 01:12 pm_

Los Angeles Rams 28–6 New York Giants in NFL Week 2 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model picked the Los Angeles Rams to beat the New York Giants by 5.1 at SoFi Stadium with a combined total of 51. The final score read 28 to 6, a 22-point blowout that left the margin model well short. Total points landed at 34, 17 under the line. Our model correctly called the win at 69% probability yet went 1 for 3 overall. The read held on the winner. Everything else broke.

The Los Angeles Rams seized control straight away. Davante Adams scored on a touchdown with 0:11 left in the first quarter for a 6-0 lead. They carried a 7-0 advantage into the second. Kyren Williams punched in another touchdown with 11:07 to play in the second quarter and the Rams led 14-3 at half-time.

Control tightened after the break. Adams grabbed his second touchdown with 6:21 remaining in the third, pushing the score to 20-3. The New York Giants scraped two field goals but stayed out of the end zone. Terrance Ferguson added the final Los Angeles Rams touchdown with 8:57 left in the fourth and the board settled at 28-6.

Dominance showed up in the numbers. The Los Angeles Rams rolled up 490 total yards against 183. They split that into 327 passing yards and 163 rushing yards while the Giants mustered 131 and 52. First downs went 23 to 10. The Los Angeles Rams lost the turnover battle two to one yet it barely registered on the scoreboard.

Efficiency told the real story. The Los Angeles Rams posted an Offensive EPA of 12 against the Giants' -23.6, a gap of 35.6 expected points from snap to snap. That edge explained how a side with two turnovers still cruised. The ground game supplied 163 yards at 33 percent of their total output and kept the Giants on their heels.

Matthew Stafford went 22-of-31 for 327 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Jameis Winston finished 11-of-27 for 111 yards and one pick. Kyren Williams led rushers with 85 yards on 12 carries. Davante Adams was the standout target with 8 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Those figures matched the pre-match positional ratings where the Los Angeles Rams held edges at quarterback 63 to 56 and receiving corps 61 to 54.

The Giants arrived with a pass rush rated 52 against the Rams' 51 and managed two sacks to one. It changed nothing. The Los Angeles Rams secondary, rated 63 to 52, throttled New York passing lanes all afternoon. Special teams ratings of 72 to 45 hinted at another mismatch that played out quietly in the background.

Both sides came in with three wins from their last five games. The Los Angeles Rams averaged 25.2 points conceded compared with the Giants' 18.4 while the visitors carried a 7.6-point average margin. Recent form ran WWWLL for the Rams and LLWWW for the Giants. Rest favoured the home side by three days. None of it prepared the Giants for the 22-point hiding that arrived.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| New York Giants | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:11 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Davante Adams | 7-0 |
| Q2 11:07 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Kyren Williams | 14-0 |
| Q2 0:25 | New York Giants | FG | Dominic Zvada | 14-3 |
| Q3 6:21 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Davante Adams | 21-3 |
| Q3 3:49 | New York Giants | FG | Dominic Zvada | 21-6 |
| Q4 8:57 | Los Angeles Rams | TD | Terrance Ferguson | 28-6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **490** | Total Yards | 183 |
| **327** | Passing Yards | 131 |
| **163** | Rushing Yards | 52 |
| **23** | First Downs | 10 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **12** | Offensive EPA | -23.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 34 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 51. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.25 (edge -10.9%) — model probability 69.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants +7.5 @ $1.84 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.9%) — model probability 39.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.98 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 5 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 69% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 130 ELO points clear, 1570 to 1440.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 5.1, with the two sides combining for about 51. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Los Angeles Rams to win, not to win big.

New York Giants have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 26-25 in 2023 Week 17.

Los Angeles Rams went 0-1 in 2026 so far, 0-1 at home, averaging 7.0 points for and 27.0 against.

New York Giants went 1-0 in 2026 so far, 0-0 away, averaging 28.0 points for and 20.0 against.

Matthew Stafford starts under centre for Los Angeles Rams, Jaxson Dart for New York Giants, with Sean McVay and John Harbaugh calling the shots.

Los Angeles Rams come in fresher, 11 days between games against 8.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Los Angeles Rams $1.25 and New York Giants $4.00, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -7.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Rams 5 · New York Giants 7 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 26-25 (2023) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 7.0 for · 27.0 against |
| New York Giants 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 28.0 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Jaxson Dart |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · John Harbaugh |
| Rest | Los Angeles Rams 11d · New York Giants 8d |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.25 · New York Giants $4.00 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -7.5 · total 48.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.0pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 11.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | W18 W · WC W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 L | 25.0 |
| New York Giants | W15 L · W16 L · W17 W · W18 W · W1 W | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W2 | Los Angeles Rams | 28 – 6 | New York Giants | Los Angeles Rams 69% ✓ |
| 2023 | W17 | New York Giants | 25 – 26 | Los Angeles Rams | not priced |
| 2021 | W6 | New York Giants | 11 – 38 | Los Angeles Rams | not priced |
| 2020 | W4 | Los Angeles Rams | 17 – 9 | New York Giants | not priced |
| 2017 | W9 | New York Giants | 17 – 51 | Los Angeles Rams | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 3/1g | 24/27g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.69 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/16g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/19g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 7/11g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 15' 39' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/40g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 21% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/28g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 2 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 1 in 1g | 8/9g (0·1·1·0·0·3·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 52% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Braxton Berrios | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jameis Winston | QB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Fields | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Malik Nabers | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Najee Harris | RB | no games | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 52% · no TD
- ⚡ Malik Nabers — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 14 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Rams** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 61% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 54% · no TD
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Colby Parkinson — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Ferguson

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New York Giants** (NYG)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.72 | 60% (expects 14.2) | ✗ missed |
| Cam Skattebo · Rush yds | U 50.5 | $1.95 | 61% (expects 50.1) | ✓ landed |
| Cam Skattebo · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.60 | 63% (expects 1.9) | ✗ missed |
| Isaiah Likely · Rec yds | U 47.5 | $1.88 | 80% (expects 25.2) | ✓ landed |
| Isaiah Likely · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.05 | 87% (expects 2.3) | ✗ missed |
| Jaxson Dart · Rush yds | U 30.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 34.5) | ✓ landed |
| Jaxson Dart · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.45 | 72% (expects 1.0) | ✓ landed |
| Jaxson Dart · Pass yds | U 217.5 | $1.87 | 69% (expects 218.3) | ✓ landed |
| Malik Nabers · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 5.5) | ✓ landed |
| Malik Nabers · Rec yds | U 65.5 | $1.88 | 65% (expects 58.8) | ✓ landed |

**Los Angeles Rams** (LA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum · Rush yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 59% (expects 43.9) | ✗ missed |
| Colby Parkinson · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.72 | 56% (expects 23.6) | ✓ landed |
| Davante Adams · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 43.7) | ✗ missed |
| Davante Adams · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.04 | 58% (expects 3.3) | ✗ missed |
| Kyren Williams · Rec yds | U 12.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 10.8) | ✓ landed |
| Kyren Williams · Rush yds | U 62.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 64.5) | ✗ missed |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.60 | 53% (expects 1.7) | ✓ landed |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass yds | U 252.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 272.9) | ✗ missed |
| Puka Nacua · Rec | U 6.5 | $2.10 | 56% (expects 6.5) | — |
| Puka Nacua · Rec yds | U 85.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 89.6) | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1570 · New York Giants 1440 · ELO difference: 130 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 56 | Los Angeles Rams +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 54 | Los Angeles Rams +7 |
| Backfield | 62 | 59 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 63 | 52 | Los Angeles Rams +11 |
| Special Teams | 72 | 45 | Los Angeles Rams +27 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Los Angeles Rams |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-22 03:12 UTC (latest tip update)