# Los Angeles Rams v New York Giants — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Los Angeles Rams v New York Giants?

Alphr's NFL model makes Los Angeles Rams a clear 69% favourite over New York Giants in Week 2. Predicted result: Los Angeles Rams by 5 in a high-scoring game (51 total, over the 48.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Los Angeles Rams lead on Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Los Angeles Rams v New York Giants
Tue, 22 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · SoFi Stadium · Week 2

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.25 (edge -10.9%) — model probability 69.1%
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants +7.5 @ $1.84 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 53.3%
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.9%) — model probability 39.7%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.98 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 5 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview

**Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am_

Los Angeles Rams meet New York Giants in NFL Week 2 at SoFi Stadium. The model makes Los Angeles Rams the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model likes Los Angeles Rams here, 69% to beat New York Giants, and the number it keeps coming back to is the ratings gap. Los Angeles Rams sit at 1570, New York Giants down at 1440. That's 130 points of separation, and it's the heaviest single factor in the read.

Look at the positional split and it's mostly one way. Los Angeles Rams hold Quarterback 63 to 56, Secondary 63 to 52, and Special Teams by a daft margin, 72 to 45. New York Giants get one thing back: Recent Form. Pass Rush is dead even at 51 to 52. Four of six factors, Team Rating, Quarterback, Secondary and Rest Advantage, go the home side's way.

History's had its say too. Los Angeles Rams have actually lost the head-to-head ledger over the last 12 meetings, 7 wins to 5 for New York Giants. Last time out, in Week 17 of 2023, Los Angeles Rams scraped home 26-25 at MetLife Stadium. Tight games seem to be the pattern here, whatever the model thinks this week.

Form is the messy bit. Both sides won 3 of their last 5. But New York Giants come in on a genuine roll, LLWWW, averaging 26 points scored and just 18.4 conceded, a margin of plus-7.6. Los Angeles Rams have gone WWWLL, scoring less on average (25) and leaking a lot more (25.2 conceded), for a season margin of minus-0.2. On the ledger so far in 2026, Los Angeles Rams are 0-1, averaging just 7 points for against 27 against; New York Giants are 1-0, averaging 28 for and 20 against. That's a fair few numbers pointing at the visitors, and the model's backing the home side anyway.

Sean McVay's team gets the rest edge, 11 days to 8, after Matthew Stafford and company had the extra week off. Jaxson Dart and John Harbaugh's mob are working on the shorter turnaround. That rest gap is one of the four factors the model's leaning on, for what it's worth against a side playing some of their better footy.

On the numbers, the model has Los Angeles Rams winning by 5.1, with the two teams combining for around 51 points. That's a solid margin without being a blowout, which tracks given how tight this fixture has run historically.

The market's even shorter than the model on the head-to-head: Los Angeles Rams are $1.25 there against the model's implied price, which is actually an edge of minus-10.9%, meaning the model reckons the market's overpriced them relative to its own numbers. For the margin, the model likes New York Giants to cover the 7.5 line at $1.84, though it doesn't formally price that market so there's no edge quoted. Same story on the total: Over 48.5 at $1.98 is the model's lean, again unpriced as an edge, just a preference.

In the props, Kyren Williams is the standout anytime scorer at $1.69 with the model giving him 61%. Puka Nacua's next at $2.10 and 54%. Further down, Cam Skattebo at $2.35 sits at 52%, useful value on the Giants' side of the ledger, and Malik Nabers rounds out at $3.00 for 31%. For first scorer, it's all longshots: Williams leads that market too at $5.75 with just an 11% chance attached.

So the case for New York Giants isn't nothing. They're fitter, form-wise, better rested opponents aside, and they've had the wood on this fixture across the last dozen meetings. But the model's happy to wear that history and back the ratings gap, the quarterback edge and the extra rest instead. Not a landslide, just a lean: Los Angeles Rams to win, by roughly a converted score, in a game that should find the scoreboard.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Rams 5 · New York Giants 7 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 26-25 (2023) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 7.0 for · 27.0 against |
| New York Giants 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 28.0 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Jaxson Dart |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · John Harbaugh |
| Rest | Los Angeles Rams 11d · New York Giants 8d |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.26 · New York Giants $4.00 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -8.5 · total 48.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.0pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 11.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | W18 W · WC W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 L | 25.0 |
| New York Giants | W15 L · W16 L · W17 W · W18 W · W1 W | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | W17 | New York Giants | 25 – 26 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2021 | W6 | New York Giants | 11 – 38 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2020 | W4 | Los Angeles Rams | 17 – 9 | New York Giants |
| 2017 | W9 | New York Giants | 17 – 51 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2016 | W7 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 – 17 | New York Giants |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 3/1g | 24/27g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.69 AI 61% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 11% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/16g | 20% | — |
| – | CJ Daniels | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/19g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 29% Market priced |
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 7/11g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 39% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 14% | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/14g | 0% | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 4% | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/40g | 0% | — |
| – | Max Klare | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 10/21g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 54% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 21% | — |
| – | Tutu Atwell | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/28g | 14% | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/41g | 24% | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/16g | 0% | — |

**New York Giants** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 2 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — |
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 1 in 1g | 8/9g (0·1·1·0·0·3·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 52% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 34% | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 12% | — |
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | — |
| – | Malachi Fields | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Malik Nabers | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 31% Market priced |
| – | Najee Harris | RB | no games | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/4g | 34% | — |
| – | Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/9g | 20% | — |
| – | Patrick Ricard | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 6% | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — |
| – | Thomas Fidone II | TE | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 52%
- ⚡ Malik Nabers — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31%
- Rest of the Giants: 14 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Rams** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 61%
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 54%
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 39%
- ⚡ Colby Parkinson — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29%
- Rest of the Rams: 1 TD across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New York Giants** (NYG)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.72 | 60% (expects 14.2) | market |
| Cam Skattebo · Rush yds | U 50.5 | $1.95 | 61% (expects 50.1) | market |
| Cam Skattebo · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.60 | 63% (expects 1.9) | market |
| Jaxson Dart · Rush yds | U 30.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 34.5) | market |
| Jaxson Dart · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.45 | 72% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Jaxson Dart · Pass yds | U 217.5 | $1.87 | 69% (expects 218.3) | market |
| Malik Nabers · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 5.5) | market |
| Malik Nabers · Rec yds | U 65.5 | $1.88 | 65% (expects 58.8) | market |

**Los Angeles Rams** (LA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum · Rush yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 59% (expects 43.9) | market |
| Colby Parkinson · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.72 | 56% (expects 23.6) | market |
| Davante Adams · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 43.7) | market |
| Davante Adams · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.04 | 58% (expects 3.3) | market |
| Kyren Williams · Rec yds | U 12.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 10.8) | market |
| Kyren Williams · Rush yds | U 62.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 64.5) | market |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.60 | 53% (expects 1.7) | market |
| Matthew Stafford · Pass yds | U 252.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 272.9) | market |
| Puka Nacua · Rec | U 6.5 | $2.10 | 56% (expects 6.5) | market |
| Puka Nacua · Rec yds | U 85.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 89.6) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1570 · New York Giants 1440 · ELO difference: 130 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 56 | Los Angeles Rams +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 54 | Los Angeles Rams +7 |
| Backfield | 62 | 59 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 63 | 52 | Los Angeles Rams +11 |
| Special Teams | 72 | 45 | Los Angeles Rams +27 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New York Giants |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Los Angeles Rams |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Los Angeles Rams win, around 28–23 (total ~51 — over the 48.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 48.5 line (model projects 51).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-15 23:10 UTC (latest tip update)