# Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders?

Alphr's NFL model makes Los Angeles Chargers a clear 73% favourite over Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2. Predicted result: Los Angeles Chargers by 7 in a high-scoring game (46 total, over the 43.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Las Vegas Raiders are stronger on paper, but Team Rating (ELO) and Secondary tip the model to Los Angeles Chargers.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 21 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · SoFi Stadium · Week 2

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.30 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 73.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 @ $1.87 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 50.4%
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Chargers 1-13 @ $2.07 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 39.7%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am_

Los Angeles Chargers meet Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 2 at SoFi Stadium. The model makes Los Angeles Chargers the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

Alphr has this one at 73% for the Los Angeles Chargers, and the number behind it is the ratings gap: they sit 108 points clear on ELO, 1487 to 1379. That's the biggest single driver of the read.

Here's the thing though: on the raw matchup, Las Vegas Raiders actually have the better hand. They lead 3 of 6 factors, Quarterback, Pass Rush and Recent Form, and the positional numbers back that up. Kirk Cousins rates 52 to Justin Herbert's 42. The Raiders' pass rush is rated 61 against the Chargers' 53. Los Angeles Chargers hold their own where it counts to the model though: Secondary, 58 to 53, and a Backfield edge of 52 to 38. The model is backing the Chargers

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Chargers 8 · Las Vegas Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 31-14 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-1 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 14.0 for · 26.0 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 27.0 for · 13.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Klint Kubliak |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.24 · Las Vegas Raiders $4.30 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 · total 42.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 14.4pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.6pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | -8.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W16 W · W17 L · W18 L · WC L · W1 L | 14.0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W | 14.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Los Angeles Chargers | 31 – 14 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2025 | W2 | Las Vegas Raiders | 9 – 20 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2024 | W18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 34 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2024 | W1 | Los Angeles Chargers | 22 – 10 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W15 | Las Vegas Raiders | 63 – 21 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 10/18g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 27% Market priced |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 48% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 12% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Alec Ingold | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 6% | — |
| – | Brenen Thompson | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — |
| – | David Njoku | TE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 34% | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/24g | 6% | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 9/50g | 12% | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 11% | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | no games | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 23% Market priced |
| – | Oronde Gadsden | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 15% | — |
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 8/25g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 31% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Tre' Harris | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 4% | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 39% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 10% Market priced |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | no games | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 3/4g | 2/3g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 24% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 12% | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 24% | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — |
| – | Malik Benson | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — |
| – | Mike Washington Jr. | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 18% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 39%
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 24%
- Rest of the Raiders: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 48%
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31%
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27%
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23%
- Rest of the Chargers: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (LAC)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $1.85 | 69% (expects 222.8) | market |
| Justin Herbert · Rush yds | O 25.5 | $2.00 | 58% (expects 27.6) | market |
| Justin Herbert · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.80 | 58% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Omarion Hampton · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.85 | 67% (expects 10.0) | market |
| Omarion Hampton · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.72 | 59% (expects 2.1) | market |
| Omarion Hampton · Rush yds | U 65.5 | $1.80 | 78% (expects 48.0) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1487 · Las Vegas Raiders 1379 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 52 | Las Vegas Raiders +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 48 | Los Angeles Chargers +5 |
| Backfield | 52 | 38 | Los Angeles Chargers +14 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 61 | Las Vegas Raiders +8 |
| Secondary | 58 | 53 | Los Angeles Chargers +5 |
| Special Teams | 55 | 53 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Los Angeles Chargers win, around 27–20 (total ~46 — over the 43.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 43.5 line (model projects 46).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-15 23:10 UTC (latest tip update)