# Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 14 – 26 Las Vegas Raiders

_Las Vegas Raiders raid Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 7 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 73% / Las Vegas Raiders 27% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 21 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Omarion Hampton (25' Tipped ⚡), Oronde Gadsden II (36') · Las Vegas Raiders: Tre Tucker (19'), Cody White (42'), Cody White (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 73% | Lost |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 27% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.8 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am · Last updated: 21 Sept 2026, 09:20 am_

Los Angeles Chargers 14–26 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 2 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Three turnovers cost the Los Angeles Chargers the game, as the Las Vegas Raiders claimed a 26-14 win at SoFi Stadium. The Raiders capitalised on Chargers errors to defy a pre-match read that had them as firm underdogs.

The Chargers gave up three possessions to the Raiders' one, making it difficult to generate points despite holding an edge in total yardage. The home side finished with 319 total yards to the Raiders' 310, driven largely by a ground game that put up 127 rushing yards compared to the Raiders' 57. However, the turnovers meant this advantage rarely translated into scoreboard pressure.

The game started slowly, with neither side registering points in the first quarter. The Raiders opened the scoring in the second quarter, with Tre Tucker crossing for a touchdown with 11:51 remaining. The Chargers responded through Omarion Hampton with 5:26 left in the half, but a field goal saw the Raiders take a 10-7 lead into the break.

The lead changed hands again in the third quarter. Oronde Gadsden II put the Chargers ahead with a touchdown at 9:49, pushing the score to 13-10. The Raiders answered with Cody White's first touchdown of the night at the 3:53 mark, reclaiming a 16-14 advantage that became 17-14 after the extra point by the end of the third.

The Raiders extended their lead in the fourth quarter. Cody White secured his second touchdown with 2:59 left, extending the lead to 23-14. A subsequent field goal made the final score 26-14. Las Vegas's pass rush also contributed, sacking the Chargers' quarterback three times to the Chargers' two.

Offensively, the Raiders were the more efficient side on a snap-for-snap basis, registering an offensive EPA of -7.5 compared to the Chargers' -16.2. This efficiency was evident in their passing game, which produced 253 yards and three touchdowns. Tre Tucker was a key target for the Raiders, hauling in five catches for 119 yards and one touchdown. The Chargers' passing game produced 192 yards.

Omarion Hampton was a standout for the Chargers, rushing for 94 yards on 23 carries and scoring one touchdown. However, his efforts were not enough to overcome the team's turnover issues.

Alphr's model had picked the Chargers to win with a 73% probability and a margin of 6.8 points. The Raiders' victory, by a 12-point margin, represents an upset against the pre-match predictions. It was a tough result for the model, with all three picks on the match missing the mark.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 26 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:51 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Tre Tucker | 0-7 |
| Q2 5:26 | Los Angeles Chargers | TD | Omarion Hampton | 7-7 |
| Q2 0:04 | Las Vegas Raiders | FG | — | 7-10 |
| Q3 9:49 | Los Angeles Chargers | TD | Oronde Gadsden | 14-10 |
| Q3 3:53 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Cody White | 14-17 |
| Q4 2:59 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Cody White | 14-24 |
| Q4 1:41 | Las Vegas Raiders | Safety | — | 14-26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **319** | Total Yards | 310 |
| 192 | Passing Yards | **253** |
| **127** | Rushing Yards | 57 |
| **15** | First Downs | 13 |
| 3 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -16.2 | Offensive EPA | **-7.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Las Vegas Raiders defied the model's 73% prediction for Los Angeles Chargers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.8 but the actual margin was 12 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.30 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 73.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 @ $1.87 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 50.4% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Chargers 1-13 @ $2.07 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 39.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Chargers here: 73% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Chargers sit 108 ELO points clear, 1487 to 1379. Form leans Las Vegas Raiders' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Los Angeles Chargers.

On paper Las Vegas Raiders shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Pass Rush and Recent Form. The model still sides with Los Angeles Chargers, which says Team Rating (ELO) and Secondary carry the most weight. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 6.8, with the two sides combining for about 46. Los Angeles Chargers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Chargers took the most recent meeting 31-14 in 2025 Week 13.

Los Angeles Chargers went 0-1 in 2026 so far, 0-1 at home, averaging 14.0 points for and 26.0 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 1-0 in 2026 so far, 0-0 away, averaging 27.0 points for and 13.0 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, Kirk Cousins for Las Vegas Raiders, with Jim Harbaugh and Klint Kubliak calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $1.30 and Las Vegas Raiders $3.54, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Chargers 8 · Las Vegas Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 31-14 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-1 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 14.0 for · 26.0 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 27.0 for · 13.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Klint Kubliak |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.30 · Las Vegas Raiders $3.54 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 14.4pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.6pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | -8.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W16 W · W17 L · W18 L · WC L · W1 L | 14.0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · W1 W | 14.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W2 | Los Angeles Chargers | 14 – 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers 73% ✗ |
| 2025 | W13 | Los Angeles Chargers | 31 – 14 | Las Vegas Raiders | not priced |
| 2025 | W2 | Las Vegas Raiders | 9 – 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | not priced |
| 2024 | W18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 – 34 | Los Angeles Chargers | not priced |
| 2024 | W1 | Los Angeles Chargers | 22 – 10 | Las Vegas Raiders | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 10/18g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| – | Alec Ingold | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brenen Thompson | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | David Njoku | TE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/24g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 9/50g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | no games | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 15% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 8/25g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | 🏉 42' 58' |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Malik Benson | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mike Washington Jr. | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 19' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Tucker, C.White

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 48% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Gadsden

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (LV)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins · Pass TDs | O 0.5 | $1.42 | 72% (expects 1.1) | ✓ landed |
| Kirk Cousins · Pass yds | O 190.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 212.1) | ✓ landed |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (LAC)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $1.85 | 69% (expects 222.8) | ✓ landed |
| Justin Herbert · Rush yds | O 25.5 | $2.00 | 58% (expects 27.6) | ✗ missed |
| Justin Herbert · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.80 | 58% (expects 1.2) | ✓ landed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.85 | 67% (expects 10.0) | ✗ missed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.72 | 59% (expects 2.1) | ✓ landed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rush yds | U 65.5 | $1.80 | 78% (expects 48.0) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1487 · Las Vegas Raiders 1379 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 52 | Las Vegas Raiders +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 48 | Los Angeles Chargers +5 |
| Backfield | 52 | 38 | Los Angeles Chargers +14 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 61 | Las Vegas Raiders +8 |
| Secondary | 58 | 53 | Los Angeles Chargers +5 |
| Special Teams | 55 | 53 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-20 23:20 UTC (latest tip update)