# Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars?

Alphr's NFL model makes Denver Broncos a clear 68% favourite over Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2. Predicted result: Denver Broncos by 11 in a low-scoring game (42 total, under the 45.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Jacksonville Jaguars are stronger on paper, but Pass Rush tips the model to Denver Broncos. The edge is on the Denver Broncos line at +8.2%.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars
Mon, 21 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · Empower Field at Mile High · Week 2

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.66 (edge +8.2%) — model probability 68.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -2.5 @ $1.84 (edge +6.8%) — model probability 61.1%
- **Margin Band:** Denver Broncos 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -4.9%) — model probability 39.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 11 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview

**Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am_

Denver Broncos meet Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 2 at Empower Field at Mile High. The model makes Denver Broncos the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

Denver Broncos are the model's pick here, 68% to beat Jacksonville Jaguars at Empower Field at Mile High. That's a firmer number than the underlying numbers really suggest, and it's worth saying plainly: the ELO ratings actually have Jacksonville Jaguars in front, 1577 to 1571. The model is backing Denver Broncos against that gap because it rates Pass Rush as the factor that decides this one.

Look at the rest of the sheet and Jacksonville Jaguars win most of it. Quarterback, Secondary and Recent Form all favour them. Trevor Lawrence rates 70 to Bo Nix's 63. The secondary gap is bigger again, 61 to 51, and the receiving corps gap is worse than that, 61 to 49. Denver Broncos' one clear positional edge is Pass Rush, 60 to 49, and the model is leaning on it hard.

History doesn't do Denver Broncos any favours either. Jacksonville Jaguars have won 7 of the last 12 meetings to Denver's 5, and the last time these two played, at this same venue in 2025, Jacksonville Jaguars won 34-20. Denver has been on the wrong end of that scoreline before.

Form lines are a genuine contrast. Jacksonville Jaguars sit at 1-0 for the season, averaging 34.0 points for and just 10.0 against, on a five-game run of WWWLW. Denver Broncos are 0-1, averaging 10.0 for and 31.0 against, and their five-game run reads WWWLL. Zoom out to the broader last-five window and it's the same story: Jacksonville Jaguars averaging 31.2 points scored to Denver's 17.8, with an average margin of plus 15 against Denver's plus 0.4. Denver's defence has actually been marginally tighter on average concessions, 17.4 to 16.2, but the scoreboard gap is stark.

Bo Nix and Sean Payton are up against Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen on Monday. Rest is close to even, Denver on 6 days, Jacksonville Jaguars on 7, and the model has that one filed as neutral along with the overall team rating.

Put it together and the model's score shape has Denver Broncos winning by 10.8, with the two sides combining for around 42 points. The market has Denver Broncos at -2.5 and the total at 43.5, so the model's picture is a slightly lower-scoring game than the market expects, with Denver doing more of the damage than the spread implies.

On price, Denver Broncos sit at $1.66 in the market for the head-to-head and the model reckons that's an 8.2% edge on its number. It also fancies Denver Broncos on the -2.5 line at $1.84 and the Under 45.5 at $1.86, though it doesn't formally price either of those markets, so no edge claim there, just the lean.

For the scorer markets, J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown at $2.55 is the model's strongest play at 38% to score, with RJ Harvey anytime at $3.35 (32%) and Bhayshul Tuten anytime at $2.90 (28%) also in the mix. Courtland Sutton rounds out the notable ones at $3.50 for anytime (29%), and if you want a longer shot, Dobbins to get the first touchdown pays $8.00 at an 8% model chance.

So the honest version is this: Jacksonville Jaguars have the better quarterback, the better secondary and the better recent form, and the ratings actually make them a shade the stronger side overall. For Jacksonville Jaguars to get the win the model doesn't expect,

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 5 · Jacksonville Jaguars 7 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 34-20 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-0 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 10.0 for · 31.0 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 34.0 for · 10.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Liam Coen |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.70 · Jacksonville Jaguars $2.20 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -2.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 31.2pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | 15.0pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W17 W · W18 W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 L | 17.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · WC L · W1 W | 31.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W16 | Denver Broncos | 20 – 34 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2022 | W8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 – 21 | Denver Broncos |
| 2021 | W2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 – 23 | Denver Broncos |
| 2019 | W4 | Denver Broncos | 24 – 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2016 | W13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 – 20 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 14% | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/21g | 10% | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/18g | 23% | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 19/50g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 29% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Dallen Bentley | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 38% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 8% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — |
| – | Jonah Coleman | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/26g | 20% | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/16g | 13% | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 4% | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 7/11g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 32% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/17g | 22% | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 3% | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 24% | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 2/3g | 30% | — |
| – | Josh Cameron | WR | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 28% Market priced |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 12% | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 28% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 35% | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.65 AI 23% Market priced |
| – | CJ Williams | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Nate Boerkircher | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — |
| – | Tanner Koziol | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Travis Hunter | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 30% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 28%
- ⚡ Parker Washington — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 28%
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · new club
- Rest of the Jaguars: 13 TDs across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 38%
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32%
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29%
- Rest of the Broncos: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (JAX)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec yds | U 5.5 | $2.15 | 63% (expects 3.5) | market |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.80 | 73% (expects 0.8) | market |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rush yds | U 43.5 | $1.90 | 68% (expects 32.8) | market |
| Brenton Strange · Rec yds | U 30.5 | $1.87 | 54% (expects 29.6) | market |
| Brenton Strange · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.68 | 68% (expects 2.6) | market |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.88 | 59% (expects 3.1) | market |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.95 | 69% (expects 32.3) | market |
| Parker Washington · Rec yds | U 55.5 | $1.80 | 63% (expects 50.9) | market |
| Parker Washington · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.62 | 68% (expects 3.5) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Rush yds | U 20.5 | $1.80 | 55% (expects 17.3) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 240.0) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $2.40 | 64% (expects 1.8) | market |

**Denver Broncos** (DEN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Trautman · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.62 | 64% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Adam Trautman · Rec yds | U 10.5 | $1.80 | 67% (expects 5.2) | market |
| Bo Nix · Pass yds | U 219.5 | $1.88 | 69% (expects 222.7) | market |
| Bo Nix · Rush yds | U 20.5 | $1.68 | 64% (expects 12.1) | market |
| Bo Nix · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.71 | 64% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.02 | 58% (expects 3.3) | market |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.85 | 57% (expects 41.1) | market |
| Evan Engram · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.82 | 55% (expects 2.4) | market |
| Evan Engram · Rec yds | U 23.5 | $1.85 | 60% (expects 20.1) | market |
| J.K. Dobbins · Rec | O 0.5 | $1.45 | 85% (expects 1.4) | market |
| J.K. Dobbins · Rec yds | U 5.5 | $1.60 | 65% (expects 1.8) | market |
| J.K. Dobbins · Rush yds | U 45.5 | $1.85 | 57% (expects 49.7) | market |
| Pat Bryant · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.80 | 78% (expects 16.9) | market |
| Pat Bryant · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.60 | 88% (expects 1.8) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Jacksonville Jaguars hold the ELO advantage (1577 vs 1571), but the market favours Denver Broncos (@1.70). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1571 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1577 · ELO difference: 6 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 70 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 49 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +12 |
| Backfield | 51 | 55 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 49 | Denver Broncos +11 |
| Secondary | 51 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10 |
| Special Teams | 63 | 69 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Denver Broncos win, around 26–16 (total ~42 — under the 45.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 45.5 line (model projects 42).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-15 23:10 UTC (latest tip update)