# Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 20 – 13 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Denver Broncos surge back to buck off Jacksonville Jaguars._

Half time: 3 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 68% / Jacksonville Jaguars 32% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 21 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Nate Adkins (49'), Jonah Coleman (53') · Jacksonville Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten (18' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 68% | Won |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.8 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am · Last updated: 21 Sept 2026, 09:02 am_

Denver Broncos 20–13 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 2 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Jacksonville Jaguars controlled the early stages and held the lead deep into the fourth quarter, yet their inability to sustain drives or generate pressure allowed the Denver Broncos to snatch a 20-13 victory at Empower Field at Mile High. They built a 10-3 half-time edge and pushed it out to 13-6 by the end of the third, only to concede 14 points in the final period while adding none. That late collapse exposed a gap between their pre-match advantages and what actually unfolded on the field.

Bhayshul Tuten gave them the first points with a touchdown at the 12:13 mark of the second quarter. He finished as the game's leading rusher with 65 yards on 13 carries and that lone touchdown. Still the Jaguars mustered just 284 total yards against Denver's 392 and only 95 rushing yards overall. Trevor Lawrence went 17-of-29 for 189 yards and threw one interception. Their offensive EPA sat at -2.6, a clear sign they left points on the board.

Denver answered with two fourth-quarter scores that flipped the result. Nate Adkins crossed at the 11:47 mark to make it 13-12. Jonah Coleman then put the Broncos in front with a touchdown at the 7:21 mark, setting up the final 19-13 before the extra point sealed the 20-13 outcome. Those two drives capitalised on the momentum shift and exposed Jacksonville's failure to adjust.

The Broncos simply proved more efficient snap for snap. Their Offensive EPA finished at 3.6, a 6.2-point swing over the Jaguars. Bo Nix completed 22-of-31 passes for 288 yards, one touchdown and one pick. Jaylen Waddle dominated the receiving work with 8 catches for 138 yards. Denver reeled off 20 first downs to Jacksonville's 17 and added two sacks while absorbing none.

Pre-match the model carried ratings of 1571 for Denver and 1577 for Jacksonville. It still gave the Broncos a 68% chance to win and called for a 10.8-point margin. The actual seven-point winning margin sat close enough to count as another hit. All three model picks landed cleanly.

On paper the Jaguars held the edge in several positional strength ratings. Quarterback sat at 70 against Denver's 63. Receiving Corps favoured them 61 to 49, Backfield 55 to 51, Secondary 61 to 51 and Special Teams 69 to 63. Denver's lone clear advantage was Pass Rush at 60 to 49. That pressure told, as the Broncos sacked Lawrence twice and forced the Jaguars into negative plays.

Form coming in also pointed toward Jacksonville. They owned four wins in their last five compared with Denver's three and carried an average margin of 15 points against the Broncos' 0.4. Recent scoring averages read 31.2 points for and 16.2 against for the visitors. Denver had averaged 17.8 scored and 17.4 conceded. Six rest days against seven made little difference once the ball was snapped. The model read the matchup more accurately than the raw numbers suggested, and the Broncos made it stand up.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 20 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 13 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | TD | Bhayshul Tuten | 0-7 |
| Q2 7:01 | Denver Broncos | FG | — | 3-7 |
| Q2 0:00 | Jacksonville Jaguars | FG | — | 3-10 |
| Q3 9:02 | Jacksonville Jaguars | FG | — | 3-13 |
| Q3 4:58 | Denver Broncos | FG | — | 6-13 |
| Q4 11:47 | Denver Broncos | TD | Nate Adkins | 13-13 |
| Q4 7:21 | Denver Broncos | TD | Jonah Coleman | 20-13 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| **392** | Total Yards | 284 |
| **288** | Passing Yards | 189 |
| **104** | Rushing Yards | 95 |
| **20** | First Downs | 17 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **3.6** | Offensive EPA | -2.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Denver Broncos by 10.8 vs the actual margin of 7 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.66 (edge +8.2%) — model probability 68.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -2.5 @ $1.84 (edge +6.8%) — model probability 61.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Denver Broncos 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -4.9%) — model probability 39.6% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 11 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 68% to see off Jacksonville Jaguars. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Denver Broncos.

On paper Jacksonville Jaguars shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with Denver Broncos, which says Pass Rush carry the most weight. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 10.8, with the two sides combining for about 42. Denver Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 34-20 in 2025 Week 16.

Denver Broncos went 0-1 in 2026 so far, 0-0 at home, averaging 10.0 points for and 31.0 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 1-0 in 2026 so far, 0-0 away, averaging 34.0 points for and 10.0 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with Sean Payton and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.66 and Jacksonville Jaguars $2.23, with the spread at Denver Broncos -2.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 5 · Jacksonville Jaguars 7 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 34-20 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-0 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 10.0 for · 31.0 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 34.0 for · 10.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Liam Coen |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.66 · Jacksonville Jaguars $2.23 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -2.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 31.2pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | 15.0pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W17 W · W18 W · DIV W · CONF L · W1 L | 17.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · WC L · W1 W | 31.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W2 | Denver Broncos | 20 – 13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Denver Broncos 68% ✓ |
| 2025 | W16 | Denver Broncos | 20 – 34 | Jacksonville Jaguars | not priced |
| 2022 | W8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 – 21 | Denver Broncos | not priced |
| 2021 | W2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 – 23 | Denver Broncos | not priced |
| 2019 | W4 | Denver Broncos | 24 – 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/18g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 19/50g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jonah Coleman | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/17g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/16g | 13% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/17g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 3% | — | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 2/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Cameron | WR | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.65 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Parker Washington — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 13 TDs across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (3 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: N.Adkins, J.Coleman

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (JAX)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec yds | U 5.5 | $2.15 | 63% (expects 3.5) | ✓ landed |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.80 | 73% (expects 0.8) | ✗ missed |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rush yds | U 43.5 | $1.90 | 68% (expects 32.8) | ✗ missed |
| Brenton Strange · Rec yds | U 30.5 | $1.87 | 54% (expects 29.6) | ✓ landed |
| Brenton Strange · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.68 | 68% (expects 2.6) | ✓ landed |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Rush yds | U 25.5 | $2.05 | 54% (expects 23.9) | ✓ landed |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.88 | 59% (expects 3.1) | ✓ landed |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.95 | 69% (expects 32.3) | ✓ landed |
| Parker Washington · Rec yds | U 55.5 | $1.80 | 63% (expects 50.9) | ✗ missed |
| Parker Washington · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.62 | 68% (expects 3.5) | ✗ missed |
| Trevor Lawrence · Rush yds | U 20.5 | $1.80 | 55% (expects 17.3) | ✓ landed |
| Trevor Lawrence · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 240.0) | ✓ landed |
| Trevor Lawrence · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $2.40 | 64% (expects 1.8) | ✗ missed |

**Denver Broncos** (DEN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Trautman · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.62 | 64% (expects 1.1) | — |
| Adam Trautman · Rec yds | U 10.5 | $1.80 | 67% (expects 5.2) | — |
| Bo Nix · Pass yds | U 219.5 | $1.88 | 69% (expects 222.7) | ✗ missed |
| Bo Nix · Rush yds | U 20.5 | $1.68 | 64% (expects 12.1) | ✓ landed |
| Bo Nix · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.71 | 64% (expects 1.1) | ✓ landed |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.02 | 58% (expects 3.3) | ✓ landed |
| Courtland Sutton · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.85 | 57% (expects 41.1) | ✓ landed |
| Evan Engram · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.82 | 55% (expects 2.4) | ✓ landed |
| Evan Engram · Rec yds | U 23.5 | $1.85 | 60% (expects 20.1) | ✓ landed |
| J.K. Dobbins · Rec | O 0.5 | $1.45 | 85% (expects 1.4) | ✗ missed |
| J.K. Dobbins · Rec yds | U 5.5 | $1.60 | 65% (expects 1.8) | ✓ landed |
| J.K. Dobbins · Rush yds | U 45.5 | $1.85 | 57% (expects 49.7) | ✓ landed |
| Jaylen Waddle · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.68 | 77% (expects 3.0) | ✗ missed |
| Jaylen Waddle · Rec yds | U 50.5 | $1.85 | 68% (expects 40.1) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Jacksonville Jaguars hold the ELO advantage (1577 vs 1571), but the market favours Denver Broncos (@1.66). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1571 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1577 · ELO difference: 6 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 63 | 70 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 49 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +12 |
| Backfield | 51 | 55 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 49 | Denver Broncos +11 |
| Secondary | 51 | 61 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10 |
| Special Teams | 63 | 69 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-20 23:02 UTC (latest tip update)