# Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings?

Alphr's NFL model makes Chicago Bears a clear 66% favourite over Minnesota Vikings in Week 2. Predicted result: Chicago Bears by 7 in a low-scoring game (46 total, under the 48.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Minnesota Vikings are stronger on paper, but Quarterback tips the model to Chicago Bears.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings
Mon, 21 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Soldier Field · Week 2

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.39 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 66.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 51.5%
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $2.10 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 39.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview

**Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am_

Chicago Bears meet Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 2 at Soldier Field. The model makes Chicago Bears the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model has Chicago Bears at 66% to beat Minnesota Vikings, and it's leaning against the ratings gap to get there. Minnesota Vikings actually sit ahead on ELO, 1574 to 1552, a 22-point edge in their favour. So the model's basically saying: forget the ratings, Quarterback wins this for Chicago Bears.

Look at the positional split and you can see why Minnesota Vikings would fancy themselves. They're rated higher at Secondary (62 to 49), Special Teams (69 to 60) and they carry the Recent Form factor too. Chicago Bears hang their hat on Caleb Williams at Quarterback, rated 69 to Kyler Murray's 50, and a small Receiving Corps edge, 63 to 57. Pass Rush is even, 62 to 60. Rest is even too, both sides on 7 days.

History doesn't do Chicago Bears any favours. Minnesota Vikings have won 9 of the last 12 meetings, Chicago Bears just 3. The most recent one, back in Week 11 last year, went Chicago Bears' way though, 19-17 at U.S. Bank Stadium. This one's at Soldier Field, outdoors on grass, and it's a division game, so throw a bit of the recent script out.

Form is where it gets interesting. Minnesota Vikings have won 5 straight, Chicago Bears just 2 from their last 5. Minnesota Vikings are conceding 14.8 a game across that stretch against Chicago Bears' 29, and their average margin is plus 10.8 to Chicago Bears' plus 3.2. Chicago Bears are scoring more, 32.2 to 25.6, but they're leaking points to match. Early this season it's 1-0 each: Chicago Bears averaging 59 for and 37 against, Minnesota Vikings 39 for and 22 against. Different styles, same record.

Ben Johnson runs things for Chicago Bears, Kevin O'Connell for Minnesota Vikings. Caleb Williams against Kyler Murray is the matchup the model cares about most, and it's not close on paper, 69 to 50.

On the numbers, the model has Chicago Bears winning by 6.6, with the total sitting around 46. The market's spread is Chicago Bears -3.5 with a total of 45.5, so the model's actually more confident in the margin than the market is, and about level on total scoring.

In the published market, Chicago Bears sit at $1.39 for the head-to-head, and the model reckons that's a touch short, pricing its edge at minus 5.5%. It still likes Chicago Bears to win, just not quite as much as the market's asking you to believe. The margin pick, Chicago Bears at -5.5 for $1.91, and the total pick, Under 48.5 at $1.86, are both plays the model likes without pricing an edge on either.

On the tries, D'Andre Swift anytime is the shortest price of the lot at $1.95, and the model has him at 55% to get one, easily the strongest fancy on the card. Justin Jefferson anytime sits at $2.40 with the model giving him 29%. Further down, Aaron Jones Sr. and Kyle Monangai are both $3.00 anytime, the model has them at 33% and 30% respectively, and Colston Loveland's in at $3.20, 30%. For first scorer, Swift again leads the way at $5.25 with a 12% chance, the closest thing to a standout in that market.

For Minnesota Vikings to get this one, the ratings gap and that five-game winning run need to mean something, and their Secondary needs to make Caleb Williams work for it. That's not

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 3 · Minnesota Vikings 9 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 19-17 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 59.0 for · 37.0 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 39.0 for · 22.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Kyler Murray |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.52 · Minnesota Vikings $2.60 |
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 32.2pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 29.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | 10.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W17 L · W18 L · WC W · DIV L · W1 W | 32.2 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · W1 W | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Minnesota Vikings | 17 – 19 | Chicago Bears |
| 2025 | W1 | Chicago Bears | 24 – 27 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2024 | W15 | Minnesota Vikings | 30 – 12 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W12 | Chicago Bears | 27 – 30 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2023 | W12 | Minnesota Vikings | 10 – 12 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 3 in 1g | 9/10g (0·1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0·3) | 3/10g | 8/20g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 55% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $5.25 AI 12% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 2/18g | 13% | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/12g | 11/50g | 22% | — |
| – | Jahdae Walker | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/7g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 43% | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 3/10g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 30% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 30% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/4g | 10% | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 11% | — |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/15g | 19% | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/15g | 16% | — |
| – | Sam Roush | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Zavion Thomas | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |

**Minnesota Vikings** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/10g | 2/5g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 29% Market priced |
| – | Aaron Jones Sr. | RB | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 14/17g | 6/9g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 33% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 26% Market priced |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 0/7g | 22% | — |
| – | Carson Wentz | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — |
| – | Demond Claiborne | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Gavin Bartholomew | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/2g | 36% | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/2g | 30% | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — |
| – | Max Bredeson | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Aaron Jones Sr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 33%
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29%
- ⚡ Jordan Mason — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 26%
- Rest of the Vikings: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 55%
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 30%
- ⚡ Colston Loveland 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30%
- Rest of the Bears: 11 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Minnesota Vikings** (MIN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rush yds | U 40.5 | $1.95 | 58% (expects 42.4) | market |
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rec yds | U 12.5 | $1.85 | 63% (expects 10.2) | market |
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.52 | 57% (expects 1.9) | market |
| Jordan Addison · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.87 | 71% (expects 26.3) | market |
| Jordan Addison · Rush yds | U 0.5 | $1.20 | 58% (expects -2.0) | market |
| Jordan Addison · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.92 | 59% (expects 2.2) | market |
| Jordan Mason · Rush yds | U 50.5 | $1.85 | 64% (expects 44.3) | market |
| Jordan Mason · Rec yds | O 0.5 | $1.62 | 54% (expects 2.6) | market |
| Jordan Mason · Rec | O 0.5 | $2.15 | 70% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.15 | 68% (expects 4.5) | market |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec yds | U 77.5 | $1.85 | 81% (expects 50.8) | market |
| T.J. Hockenson · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.85 | 70% (expects 19.7) | market |
| T.J. Hockenson · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 64% (expects 2.9) | market |

**Chicago Bears** (CHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams · Rush yds | U 25.5 | $1.90 | 52% (expects 24.4) | market |
| Caleb Williams · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.87 | 58% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Caleb Williams · Pass yds | U 227.5 | $1.88 | 69% (expects 229.1) | market |
| Cole Kmet · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.83 | 60% (expects 14.3) | market |
| Cole Kmet · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.10 | 65% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Colston Loveland · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.15 | 57% (expects 3.5) | market |
| Colston Loveland · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $2.00 | 57% (expects 40.7) | market |
| D'Andre Swift · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.98 | 55% (expects 1.3) | market |
| D'Andre Swift · Rec yds | U 10.5 | $1.75 | 51% (expects 11.5) | market |
| D'Andre Swift · Rush yds | U 66.5 | $1.85 | 62% (expects 64.7) | market |
| Kyle Monangai · Rec yds | O 6.5 | $1.95 | 51% (expects 7.9) | market |
| Kyle Monangai · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.48 | 62% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Kyle Monangai · Rush yds | O 35.5 | $1.87 | 50% (expects 47.2) | market |
| Luther Burden III · Rec yds | U 47.5 | $1.88 | 68% (expects 36.0) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Minnesota Vikings hold the ELO advantage (1574 vs 1552), but the market favours Chicago Bears (@1.52). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1552 · Minnesota Vikings 1574 · ELO difference: 22 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 69 | 50 | Chicago Bears +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 57 | Chicago Bears +6 |
| Backfield | 55 | 48 | Chicago Bears +7 |
| Pass Rush | 62 | 60 | Even |
| Secondary | 49 | 62 | Minnesota Vikings +13 |
| Special Teams | 60 | 69 | Minnesota Vikings +9 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Chicago Bears win, around 26–20 (total ~46 — under the 48.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 48.5 line (model projects 46).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-15 23:10 UTC (latest tip update)