# Baltimore Ravens v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 17 – 24 New Orleans Saints

_New Orleans Saints fight back to march all over Baltimore Ravens._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 73% / New Orleans Saints 27% · M&T Bank Stadium · Mon, 21 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (13' Tipped ⚡), Rashod Bateman (30') · New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave (51' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Shough (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 73% | Lost |
| New Orleans Saints | 27% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am · Last updated: 21 Sept 2026, 06:05 am_

Baltimore Ravens 17–24 New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 2 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Baltimore Ravens controlled the early stages at M&T Bank Stadium yet still fell short. They built a 14 to 6 lead by half-time, outgained New Orleans Saints 343 yards to 317, and earned more first downs, 19 to 17. Derrick Henry scored with 2:52 left in the first quarter for a 6-0 edge. Rashod Bateman added a touchdown with 0:24 left in the second, pushing it to 13-3 before the Ravens took a 14-6 buffer into the break. They looked the better side through two quarters, with 108 rushing yards to 65 and a backfield rating of 74 against the Saints' 62.

The second half unravelled that edge. New Orleans Saints chipped away, reaching 17-9 by the end of the third quarter. Chris Olave narrowed it to 17-15 with a touchdown at 9:42 of the fourth. Then with 1:28 remaining Tyler Shough scored the decisive touchdown that put the Saints in front 23-17. The final score read New Orleans Saints 24, Baltimore Ravens 17.

The turnover count proved decisive. Baltimore Ravens gave up one turnover, while New Orleans Saints had none. That single miscue was costly in a game decided by a seven-point margin. Despite the ground advantage the Ravens could not convert it into points when it mattered.

New Orleans Saints generated more value per snap, posting an Offensive EPA of 9.5 against Baltimore's 6.3. Their passing game produced 252 yards to the Ravens' 235. Tyler Shough went 27 of 34 for 252 yards and one touchdown, the late score sealing the result. Lamar Jackson finished 21 of 31 for 235 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Saints' receiving corps rating of 65 and quarterback rating of 66 simply proved too much once the game opened up.

Baltimore's positional strengths in the backfield and secondary, rated at 74 and 60 respectively, did not translate into a victory. Their receiving corps, rated at 53, and quarterback, rated at 47, sat below the Saints' 65 and 66. That gap in talent showed as momentum shifted after half-time. Rashod Bateman was the game's top target with 7 catches for 88 yards and 1 TD. Derrick Henry led all rushers with 68 yards on 16 carries and 1 TD.

The Alphr model had Baltimore Ravens as the clear favourite with a 73% win probability, predicting them to win by 7.7 points. This result marks a notable upset, with the Saints defying the model's pre-match read. The actual margin was 7 points, so the model's margin prediction was accurate, but it missed the outright winner. The model went 1/3 on this game.

Both teams entered this match with three wins from their last five outings. Baltimore Ravens had a slightly better average margin, 10.6 points to 6.2. The Saints' recent form included three wins in their last five games, suggesting they were capable of a comeback.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 24 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:52 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Derrick Henry | 7-0 |
| Q2 3:46 | New Orleans Saints | FG | — | 7-3 |
| Q2 0:24 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Rashod Bateman | 14-3 |
| Q2 0:00 | New Orleans Saints | FG | — | 14-6 |
| Q3 11:00 | New Orleans Saints | FG | — | 14-9 |
| Q3 3:23 | Baltimore Ravens | FG | — | 17-9 |
| Q4 9:42 | New Orleans Saints | TD | Chris Olave | 17-17 |
| Q4 1:28 | New Orleans Saints | TD | Tyler Shough | 17-24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| **343** | Total Yards | 317 |
| 235 | Passing Yards | **252** |
| **108** | Rushing Yards | 65 |
| **19** | First Downs | 17 |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 3 | Sacks Made | 3 |
| 6.3 | Offensive EPA | **9.5** |

**Model Report Card**

New Orleans Saints defied the model's 73% prediction for Baltimore Ravens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 7 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.21 (edge -9.9%) — model probability 72.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints +8.5 @ $1.86 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 51.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.3%) — model probability 39.5% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 8 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 73% to see off New Orleans Saints. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 141 ELO points clear, 1571 to 1430.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 51. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Baltimore Ravens have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 27-13 in 2022 Week 9.

Baltimore Ravens went 1-0 in 2026 so far, 0-0 at home, averaging 41.0 points for and 23.0 against.

New Orleans Saints went 0-1 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 30.0 points for and 31.0 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Tyler Shough for New Orleans Saints, with Jesse Minter and Kellen Moore calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.21 and New Orleans Saints $4.45, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -8.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Baltimore Ravens 5 · New Orleans Saints 2 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 27-13 (2022) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 41.0 for · 23.0 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-1 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 30.0 for · 31.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Tyler Shough |
| Head coaches | Jesse Minter · Kellen Moore |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.21 · New Orleans Saints $4.45 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -8.5 · total 46.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Conceded | 19.8pts |
| 10.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W15 W · W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 W | 30.8 |
| New Orleans Saints | W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W2 | Baltimore Ravens | 17 – 24 | New Orleans Saints | Baltimore Ravens 73% ✗ |
| 2022 | W9 | New Orleans Saints | 13 – 27 | Baltimore Ravens | not priced |
| 2018 | W7 | Baltimore Ravens | 23 – 24 | New Orleans Saints | not priced |
| 2014 | W12 | New Orleans Saints | 27 – 34 | Baltimore Ravens | not priced |
| 2010 | W15 | Baltimore Ravens | 30 – 24 | New Orleans Saints | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 3 in 1g | 13/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·2·4·0·3) | 0/1g | 22/20g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.57 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.40 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 21/62g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/28g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | no games | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/44g | 20% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 28/65g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/36g | 28% | — | 🏉 30' |

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Barion Brown | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Bryce Lance | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| – | CJ Donaldson | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kevin Austin Jr. | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Delp | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (2·1·0·2·3·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 59' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 45% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Shough

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 9 TDs in last 5 (9 rush · 0 pass) · model 64% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 5 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Bateman

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New Orleans Saints** (NO)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.68 | 55% (expects 5.7) | ✗ missed |
| Chris Olave · Rec yds | U 65.5 | $1.85 | 58% (expects 64.4) | ✗ missed |
| Devaughn Vele · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.55 | 74% (expects 2.2) | ✗ missed |
| Devaughn Vele · Rec yds | U 30.5 | $1.95 | 70% (expects 21.7) | ✗ missed |
| Juwan Johnson · Rec yds | O 29.5 | $1.85 | 55% (expects 39.4) | ✓ landed |
| Juwan Johnson · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.58 | 56% (expects 3.5) | ✗ missed |
| Travis Etienne Jr. · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.00 | 59% (expects 2.2) | ✓ landed |
| Travis Etienne Jr. · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $2.00 | 52% (expects 14.9) | ✓ landed |
| Travis Etienne Jr. · Rush yds | U 41.5 | $1.90 | 57% (expects 45.3) | ✓ landed |
| Tyler Shough · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.50 | 64% (expects 1.1) | ✓ landed |
| Tyler Shough · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $2.00 | 63% (expects 234.6) | ✗ missed |
| Tyler Shough · Rush yds | U 15.5 | $1.90 | 66% (expects 9.7) | ✗ missed |

**Baltimore Ravens** (BAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry · Rush yds | U 85.5 | $1.80 | 53% (expects 92.7) | ✓ landed |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass yds | U 240.5 | $1.80 | 64% (expects 206.6) | ✓ landed |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.05 | 58% (expects 1.2) | ✓ landed |
| Lamar Jackson · Rush yds | O 27.5 | $1.85 | 58% (expects 30.5) | ✓ landed |
| Mark Andrews · Rec yds | U 50.5 | $1.88 | 84% (expects 21.5) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1571 · New Orleans Saints 1430 · ELO difference: 141 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 66 | New Orleans Saints +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 65 | New Orleans Saints +12 |
| Backfield | 74 | 62 | Baltimore Ravens +12 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 60 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 65 | 54 | Baltimore Ravens +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-20 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)