# Baltimore Ravens v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Baltimore Ravens v New Orleans Saints?

Alphr's NFL model makes Baltimore Ravens a clear 73% favourite over New Orleans Saints in Week 2. Predicted result: Baltimore Ravens by 8 in a high-scoring game (51 total, over the 46.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Baltimore Ravens lead on Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Baltimore Ravens v New Orleans Saints
Mon, 21 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · M&T Bank Stadium · Week 2

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.21 (edge -9.9%) — model probability 72.7%
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints +8.5 @ $1.86 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 51.0%
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.3%) — model probability 39.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 8 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview

**Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am_

Baltimore Ravens meet New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 2 at M&T Bank Stadium. The model makes Baltimore Ravens the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model likes Baltimore Ravens here, 73% to beat New Orleans Saints on Monday, and it's not close to a coin toss. The big driver is the ratings gap: Ravens sit 141 ELO points clear, 1571 to 1430. That's the kind of gap that does most of the talking before a snap's even been played.

Worth being straight about where the numbers actually split, though. Ravens don't win the positional battle across the board. New Orleans Saints have the better quarterback rating, 66 to 47, and edge it at pass rush too, 54 to 50. Ravens make up for it with a stronger backfield, 74 to 62, a better secondary, 60 to 56, and special teams that aren't close, 65 to 54. So the model's backing Ravens on Team Rating, Secondary and Recent Form, while conceding Quarterback and Pass Rush to the Saints. Rest is even, both sides on 7 days.

History's lopsided too. Ravens have won 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two. Last time they met, back in 2022, Ravens went into the Superdome and won 27-13. New Orleans hasn't had much luck turning up at Baltimore's place either, historically.

Form lines are pulling in opposite directions. Ravens are 1-0 this season, averaging 41 points for and 23 against, and they've won their last five straight. Saints are 0-1, averaging 30 for and 31 against, on a five-game losing run. Look at the last five in detail and it's the same story: Ravens averaging 30.8 points a game to the Saints' 26, conceding 20.2 to New Orleans' 19.8, with an average margin of 10.6 against the Saints' 6.2. The shape (WLWLW for Ravens against WWWLL for New Orleans) tells you who's trending up and who isn't.

Lamar Jackson runs it for Ravens under Jesse Minter, Tyler Shough for the Saints under Kellen Moore. Nothing in the rest column to separate them, seven days each.

The model's margin sits at Ravens by 7.7, with a combined total near 51. The market's spread has Ravens at -7.5 and the total at 46.5, so the model's tracking close to the market on margin but expects a bit more scoring than the posted number.

On price, Ravens are $1.28 and New Orleans $3.85, market favourite lining up with the model's pick. The catch is the model's edge on that H2H number comes in at -9.9%, so there's nothing to like about backing the favourite at that price on its own numbers. The margin pick, Saints +8.5 at $1.86, and the total pick, Over 46.5 at $1.86, are both plays the model likes but doesn't price an edge on, so take them as a lean rather than a tip with a number behind it.

For the scorers, Derrick Henry anytime is the standout at $1.57 with the model giving him 64%. Travis Etienne Jr. and Zay Flowers both sit around 45% anytime at $2.55 and $2.50. Chris Olave's a bit further back at 35% ($2.90), Mark Andrews at 24% ($2.90), Juwan Johnson at 21% ($6.00). First scorer is longer odds all round: Henry leads that market too at 14% ($4.40), with Etienne Jr., Flowers and Olave all sitting between 8 and 10%.

For New Orleans to cause any trouble, the quarterback and pass rush edges need to actually show up on the field, because everything else in the model, the ratings gap, the recent form, the head-to-head, points the other way. Ravens are the read here, and a comfortable one at that.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Baltimore Ravens 5 · New Orleans Saints 2 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 27-13 (2022) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 41.0 for · 23.0 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2026 so far | 0-1 · 0-1 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 30.0 for · 31.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Tyler Shough |
| Head coaches | Jesse Minter · Kellen Moore |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.28 · New Orleans Saints $3.85 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -7.5 · total 46.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Conceded | 19.8pts |
| 10.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W15 W · W16 L · W17 W · W18 L · W1 W | 30.8 |
| New Orleans Saints | W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L · W1 L | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W9 | New Orleans Saints | 13 – 27 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2018 | W7 | Baltimore Ravens | 23 – 24 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2014 | W12 | New Orleans Saints | 27 – 34 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2010 | W15 | Baltimore Ravens | 30 – 24 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2006 | W8 | New Orleans Saints | 22 – 35 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 3 in 1g | 13/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·2·4·0·3) | 0/1g | 22/20g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.57 AI 64% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $4.40 AI 14% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 21/62g | 20% | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 7/27g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 45% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 10% Market priced |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | no games | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 29% | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | Elijah Sarratt | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Josh Cuevas | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/44g | 20% | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 28/65g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 24% Market priced |
| – | Matthew Hibner | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 7% | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/36g | 28% | — |

**New Orleans Saints** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 27% | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 21% Market priced |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 16% | — |
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 20% | — |
| – | Barion Brown | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Bryce Lance | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 35% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Oscar Delp | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 10/10g (2·1·0·2·3·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 45% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 10% Market priced |
| – | Treyton Welch | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne Jr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 45% · new club
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 35%
- ⚡ Juwan Johnson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 21%
- Rest of the Saints: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 9 TDs in last 5 (9 rush · 0 pass) · model 64%
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 5 pass) · model 45%
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24%
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New Orleans Saints** (NO)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.68 | 55% (expects 5.7) | market |
| Chris Olave · Rec yds | U 65.5 | $1.85 | 58% (expects 64.4) | market |
| Devaughn Vele · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.55 | 74% (expects 2.2) | market |
| Devaughn Vele · Rec yds | U 30.5 | $1.95 | 70% (expects 21.7) | market |
| Juwan Johnson · Rec yds | O 29.5 | $1.85 | 55% (expects 39.4) | market |
| Juwan Johnson · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.58 | 56% (expects 3.5) | market |
| Tyler Shough · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.50 | 64% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Tyler Shough · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $2.00 | 63% (expects 234.6) | market |
| Tyler Shough · Rush yds | U 15.5 | $1.90 | 66% (expects 9.7) | market |

**Baltimore Ravens** (BAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry · Rush yds | U 85.5 | $1.80 | 53% (expects 92.7) | market |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass yds | U 240.5 | $1.80 | 64% (expects 206.6) | market |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.05 | 58% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Lamar Jackson · Rush yds | O 27.5 | $1.85 | 58% (expects 30.5) | market |
| Mark Andrews · Rec yds | U 50.5 | $1.88 | 84% (expects 21.5) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1571 · New Orleans Saints 1430 · ELO difference: 141 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 66 | New Orleans Saints +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 65 | New Orleans Saints +12 |
| Backfield | 74 | 62 | Baltimore Ravens +12 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 60 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 65 | 54 | Baltimore Ravens +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Baltimore Ravens win, around 30–22 (total ~51 — over the 46.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 46.5 line (model projects 51).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-15 23:10 UTC (latest tip update)