# Arizona Cardinals v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Arizona Cardinals 7 – 31 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks run riot over Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 7 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Arizona Cardinals 17% / Seattle Seahawks 83% · State Farm Stadium · Mon, 21 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride (16' Tipped ⚡) · Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (33' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (48' Tipped ⚡), AJ Barner (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 83% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 17% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.4 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 Sept 2026, 09:10 am · Last updated: 21 Sept 2026, 09:35 am_

Arizona Cardinals 7–31 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 2 at State Farm Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Seattle Seahawks defeated the Arizona Cardinals 31-7 at State Farm Stadium. The 24-point final margin looked like a blowout on paper yet the half-time score of 7-7 told a different story about the first two quarters. Seattle then reeled off 24 unanswered points after the break to turn a tight contest into a rout.

Seattle's statistical advantage was clear across the board. They accumulated 397 total yards compared to Arizona's 165. This included 235 passing yards for Seattle against Arizona's 95, and 162 rushing yards for Seattle against Arizona's 70. The Seahawks also recorded 21 first downs, while the Cardinals managed 8. Both teams committed one turnover each. Seattle made 2 sacks, while Arizona made 1.

Offensive efficiency was a key factor for Seattle. Their Offensive EPA stood at 9, a significant difference from Arizona’s -15.3. This efficiency translated into three touchdowns for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and one for AJ Barner. Trey McBride scored the Cardinals' only touchdown, which levelled the score at 6-7 with 14:57 left in the second quarter, before the extra point made it 7-7.

The second half saw Seattle take control. Smith-Njigba scored his second touchdown with 12:27 remaining in the third quarter, putting Seattle ahead 13-7. By the end of the third quarter, Seattle had extended their lead to 17-7. Smith-Njigba completed his hat-trick in the fourth quarter at the 12:40 mark, making the score 23-7. AJ Barner then scored a touchdown with 1:11 left in the game, bringing the score to 30-7 before the extra point.

Alphr's model had a clear read on the match. It gave Seattle an 83% probability of winning, which proved correct. The model's predicted margin of 12.5 points was reasonable against the actual 24-point difference. The combined total score prediction of 40 was also close to the actual 38, within 2 points. All three model picks were accurate for the match.

Seattle entered the game in stronger form, with five consecutive wins and an average score of 25.4 points while conceding 11.8 points per game over their last five outings. Arizona, by contrast, had one win in their last five, averaging 19.8 points scored and 30.8 points conceded. The positional strength ratings also favoured Seattle, particularly in quarterback (55 vs 46), pass rush (54 vs 47), and secondary (59 vs 51). Their special teams also rated higher at 75 against Arizona's 55.

The statistics from the game supported these pre-match assessments. Seattle's superior rushing attack and overall offensive efficiency were enough to break the game open after the half-time break. The Cardinals were unable to match Seattle's output in the crucial second half.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 31 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:25 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0-7 |
| Q2 14:57 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Trey McBride | 7-7 |
| Q3 12:27 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7-14 |
| Q3 6:47 | Seattle Seahawks | FG | — | 7-17 |
| Q4 12:40 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7-24 |
| Q4 1:11 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | AJ Barner | 7-31 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 165 | Total Yards | **397** |
| 95 | Passing Yards | **235** |
| 70 | Rushing Yards | **162** |
| 8 | First Downs | **21** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| -15.3 | Offensive EPA | **9** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 83% probability. The predicted margin of 12.4 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.45 (edge +13.8%) — model probability 82.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -4.5 @ $1.93 (edge +8.9%) — model probability 60.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-13 @ $2.12 (edge -7.6%) — model probability 39.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 12 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 83% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 254 ELO points clear, 1682 to 1428. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Arizona Cardinals.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 12.4, with the two sides combining for about 40. Seattle Seahawks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Seattle Seahawks have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 44-22 in 2025 Week 10.

Arizona Cardinals went 1-0 in 2026 so far, 0-0 at home, averaging 26.0 points for and 14.0 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 1-0 in 2026 so far, 0-0 away, averaging 13.0 points for and 10.0 against.

Jacoby Brissett starts under centre for Arizona Cardinals, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Jonathan Gannon and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

Seattle Seahawks come in fresher, 11 days between games against 7.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Arizona Cardinals $2.76 and Seattle Seahawks $1.45, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -4.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Arizona Cardinals 2 · Seattle Seahawks 10 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 44-22 (2025) |
| Arizona Cardinals 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 home |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 26.0 for · 14.0 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2026 so far | 1-0 · 0-0 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 13.0 for · 10.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jacoby Brissett · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Jonathan Gannon · Mike Macdonald |
| Rest | Arizona Cardinals 7d · Seattle Seahawks 11d |
| Market | Arizona Cardinals $2.76 · Seattle Seahawks $1.45 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -4.5 · total 41.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 25.4pts |
| 30.8pts | Avg Conceded | 11.8pts |
| -11.0pts | Avg Margin | 13.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 11.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · W1 W | 19.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W18 W · DIV W · CONF W · SB W · W1 W | 25.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W2 | Arizona Cardinals | 7 – 31 | Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks 83% ✓ |
| 2025 | W10 | Seattle Seahawks | 44 – 22 | Arizona Cardinals | not priced |
| 2025 | W4 | Arizona Cardinals | 20 – 23 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |
| 2024 | W14 | Arizona Cardinals | 18 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |
| 2024 | W12 | Seattle Seahawks | 16 – 6 | Arizona Cardinals | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at State Farm Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremiyah Love | RB | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 2/7g | 7/28g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/20g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Brooks | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 7/14g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 5/23g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 33' 48' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/17g | 3/8g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.60 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Drew Lock | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jadarian Price | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 32% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 46% · **scored Q1, Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Jadarian Price 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 1 · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Cooper Kupp — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Barner

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jeremiyah Love 🎯 — 1 TD in last 1 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Wilson — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Cardinals: 1 TD across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Seattle Seahawks** (SEA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.80 | 66% (expects 19.0) | ✓ landed |
| Cooper Kupp · Rec yds | U 30.5 | $1.85 | 57% (expects 28.4) | ✓ landed |
| Drew Lock · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.58 | 81% (expects 0.4) | ✗ missed |
| Drew Lock · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $1.68 | 89% (expects 85.2) | ✗ missed |
| Jadarian Price · Rush yds | U 60.5 | $1.85 | 72% (expects 50.2) | ✓ landed |
| Jadarian Price · Rec yds | U 10.5 | $1.72 | 78% (expects -1.3) | ✓ landed |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec yds | O 78.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 87.0) | ✓ landed |

**Arizona Cardinals** (ARI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett · Rush yds | O 5.5 | $1.87 | 67% (expects 9.6) | ✓ landed |
| Jacoby Brissett · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $1.80 | 69% (expects 222.6) | ✓ landed |
| Jacoby Brissett · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.40 | 64% (expects 1.1) | ✓ landed |
| Jeremiyah Love · Rec yds | U 13.5 | $1.88 | 77% (expects 2.6) | ✗ missed |
| Jeremiyah Love · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.65 | 77% (expects 1.6) | ✗ missed |
| Jeremiyah Love · Rush yds | U 37.5 | $1.88 | 60% (expects 37.2) | ✓ landed |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.78 | 53% (expects 2.6) | ✗ missed |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. · Rec yds | O 31.5 | $1.85 | 51% (expects 39.2) | ✗ missed |
| Michael Wilson · Rec yds | U 46.5 | $1.90 | 52% (expects 49.7) | ✓ landed |
| Michael Wilson · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.66 | 59% (expects 4.2) | ✓ landed |
| Trey McBride · Rec yds | O 55.5 | $1.85 | 50% (expects 62.1) | ✗ missed |
| Trey McBride · Rec | O 5.5 | $1.68 | 67% (expects 6.8) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Arizona Cardinals 1428 · Seattle Seahawks 1682 · ELO difference: 253 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 55 | Seattle Seahawks +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 75 | 64 | Arizona Cardinals +11 |
| Backfield | 44 | 47 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 54 | Seattle Seahawks +7 |
| Secondary | 51 | 59 | Seattle Seahawks +8 |
| Special Teams | 55 | 75 | Seattle Seahawks +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Seattle Seahawks |

**Model Confidence: 83%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r2-arizona-cardinals-v-seattle-seahawks
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-20 23:35 UTC (latest tip update)