# Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots — NFL Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 13 – 10 New England Patriots

_Seattle Seahawks rally to swoop on New England Patriots._

Half time: 0 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 60% / New England Patriots 40% · Lumen Field · Thu, 10 Sept, 10:20 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (49' Tipped ⚡) · New England Patriots: Eli Raridon (21')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 60% | Won |
| New England Patriots | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Sept 2026, 06:57 pm_

Seattle Seahawks 13–10 New England Patriots in NFL Week 1 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England led for three quarters at Lumen Field and still could not close it out. Seattle chased the entire afternoon, stayed within striking distance, then took the lead late and held on for a 13-10 win. The gap stayed one score from the first quarter until the final whistle, and the final margin of three points matched the tension on the field.

The Patriots broke the deadlock first. Eli Raridon's touchdown with 9:11 left in the second quarter made it 6-0, and the extra point had New England up 7-0 at half-time while Seattle had nothing on the board. That gap held into the third quarter, where New England stretched it further to 10-3. Seattle needed something to change the shape of the game, and it came with 11:28 left in the fourth: Jaxon Smith-Njigba's touchdown cut it to 9-10. From there Seattle found enough to get to 13-10 and hold it, closing out a game that stayed one score deep the whole way.

The turnover column explains a lot of how New England led for three quarters and still lost. Three giveaways to none is hard to survive against any side that's converting field position off it, and Drake Maye's three interceptions stand in stark contrast to Drew Lock's afternoon: 16 from 22 for 187 yards and a touchdown, clean. Maye still threw for 178 yards and a score of his own, but three picks is the kind of number that undoes good work elsewhere in the box score.

Yardage was close, Seattle out-gaining New England 297 to 287, though the Patriots actually won first downs 16-13 and out-rushed Seattle 109 to 97. Seattle's pass rush was the difference-maker up front, getting home three times to New England's two, which runs against the pre-match numbers that had the Patriots rated stronger there, 55 to 51. The rating sheet said one thing, the game said another.

Individually, Smith-Njigba was the best player on the ground: eight catches for 122 yards and the touchdown that turned the momentum in the fourth quarter. Jadarian Price led all rushers with 52 yards on 10 carries. Maye's numbers through the air were solid in isolation but were always going to be judged against those three interceptions.

Seattle went into this with a big edge in the backfield on paper, 75 to 58, yet New England still out-rushed them on the day, proof that a rating is an expectation and not a guarantee. New England's secondary was rated well clear too, 72 to 59, which makes Lock's tidy performance and Smith-Njigba's big afternoon a genuine result rather than a formality against a weaker unit.

Form pointed towards Seattle before kickoff. They arrived 5-0 across their last five games with an average margin of 16.4 points, against New England's 4-1 and 8-point average margin. Alphr's model had Seattle rated at 1673 against New England's 1589, expected Seattle to win by 2.2 points on a combined total of 44. The actual margin was 3 points on a combined total of 23, well under the total but close enough on the margin to call it sharp. Seattle winning was picked at 60% probability, and with the margin and total both landing where the model pointed, it was a clean sweep for all three picks on this one.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| New England Patriots | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:11 | New England Patriots | TD | Eli Raridon | 0-7 |
| Q3 11:49 | New England Patriots | FG | — | 0-10 |
| Q3 3:13 | Seattle Seahawks | FG | — | 3-10 |
| Q4 11:28 | Seattle Seahawks | TD | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10-10 |
| Q4 5:50 | Seattle Seahawks | FG | — | 13-10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| **297** | Total Yards | 287 |
| **200** | Passing Yards | 178 |
| 97 | Rushing Yards | **109** |
| 13 | First Downs | **16** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| 0 | Offensive EPA | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Seattle Seahawks by 2.2 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 23 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 44. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.56 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 60.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots +3.5 @ $1.87 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 50.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 38.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 50.7% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model gives the nod to the Seattle Seahawks with a 60% win probability over the New England Patriots, who sit at 40%. The main driver here is the ratings gap: an 85-point ELO difference, with Seattle at 1673 and New England at 1589. Seattle's recent form is also a factor, wrapping up last season with five straight wins, compared to the Patriots' four.

When you dig into the positional ratings, the Patriots have the edge in three out of six categories, including Quarterback, Pass Rush, and Secondary. Yet, the model still leans towards Seattle, valuing their overall ELO and recent form more heavily. It predicts a tight contest, with the Seahawks expected to win by just 2.2 points and a combined total of 44.

Looking at their history, Seattle has the upper hand, winning five of the last eight encounters. Their most recent clash was a decisive 29-13 victory over New England in the 2025 Super Bowl. Both teams had stellar 14-3 records last season, but the Seahawks' Super Bowl win lingers in the memory.

Form-wise, Seattle's last five games saw them average 28.2 points while conceding just 11.8. The Patriots weren't far off, averaging 21 points and allowing 13, but their last outing was a loss. Both teams have had equal rest, so no edge there.

The stakes are high for this season opener. Both teams will be looking to set the tone for the year after a strong 2025 showing. A clash of head coaches, Mike Macdonald for the Seahawks and Mike Vrabel for the Patriots, adds another layer of intrigue.

Touchdown markets are buzzing. The model fancies Jaxon Smith-Njigba for an anytime TD at $2.40, giving him a 42% chance. Rhamondre Stevenson is also at $2.40 but rated slightly lower at 35%. First TD picks lean towards Smith-Njigba again at $9.75, with a 10% model chance.

In terms of player props, George Holani is under the microscope. The model likes him to fall short of 20.5 rushing yards at $1.88, seeing a 32.8% edge there. Rashid Shaheed's under 31.5 receiving yards at $1.91 also presents a 16.4% edge.

The market prices Seattle at $1.52, making them the favourite, while New England sits at $2.60. The spread is Seattle -3.5 with a total line of 44.5. The model sees the market's pricing as slightly off, but not enough to declare a major edge.

In the end, the Seahawks have the model's backing, but it's not a walk in the park. The Patriots have their strengths, and if they can leverage their Quarterback, Pass Rush, and Secondary, they could tip the scales. But the model's read is clear: Seattle, just.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Seattle Seahawks 6 · New England Patriots 3 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 13-10 (2026) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2026 so far | 3-1 · 2-0 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 26.3 for · 18.3 against |
| New England Patriots 2026 so far | 2-2 · 1-2 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 16.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.52 · New England Patriots $2.60 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 · total 44.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 28.2pts | Avg Score | 21.0pts |
| 11.8pts | Avg Conceded | 13.0pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W17 W · W18 W · DIV W · CONF W · SB W | 28.2 |
| New England Patriots | W18 W · WC W · DIV W · CONF W · SB L | 21.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W1 | Seattle Seahawks | 13 – 10 | New England Patriots |
| 2025 | SB | New England Patriots | 13 – 29 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W2 | New England Patriots | 20 – 23 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2020 | W2 | Seattle Seahawks | 35 – 30 | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | W10 | New England Patriots | 24 – 31 | Seattle Seahawks |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | AJ Barner | TE | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 4/18g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 1/14g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Drew Lock | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | no games | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jadarian Price | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | no games | 7/10g (2·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 16/27g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| – | Montorie Foster Jr | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/13g | 4% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | no games | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Corey Kiner | RB | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.50 AI 24% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Eli Raridon | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Lan Larison | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·2·3·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 24% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ A.J. Brown 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Drake Maye 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: E.Raridon

**Seattle Seahawks** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Cooper Kupp — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 12 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New England Patriots** (NE)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown · Rec yds | U 60.5 | $1.88 | 62% (expects 58.7) | ✓ landed |
| A.J. Brown · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.25 | 57% (expects 4.7) | ✓ landed |
| DeMario Douglas · Rec yds | U 18.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 20.4) | ✗ missed |
| DeMario Douglas · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.63 | 66% (expects 2.2) | ✓ landed |
| Drake Maye · Pass yds | U 227.5 | $1.89 | 56% (expects 212.6) | ✓ landed |
| Drake Maye · Rush yds | O 25.5 | $1.95 | 57% (expects 29.1) | ✓ landed |
| Drake Maye · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.65 | 58% (expects 1.2) | ✓ landed |
| Hunter Henry · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.62 | 64% (expects 2.8) | ✓ landed |
| Hunter Henry · Rec yds | U 33.5 | $1.88 | 67% (expects 27.2) | ✓ landed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rec yds | U 23.5 | $1.88 | 62% (expects 20.1) | ✗ missed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rush yds | U 44.5 | $1.91 | 55% (expects 47.6) | ✗ missed |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.40 | 54% (expects 2.5) | ✗ missed |
| Romeo Doubs · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.68 | 59% (expects 3.5) | ✓ landed |
| Romeo Doubs · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.95 | 54% (expects 40.5) | ✓ landed |

**Seattle Seahawks** (SEA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.20 | 58% (expects 2.3) | ✓ landed |
| AJ Barner · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.89 | 66% (expects 20.0) | ✓ landed |
| Cooper Kupp · Rec yds | O 30.5 | $1.95 | 52% (expects 39.0) | ✓ landed |
| Cooper Kupp · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.77 | 69% (expects 3.9) | ✗ missed |
| George Holani · Rush yds | U 20.5 | $1.88 | 86% (expects 7.7) | ✗ missed |
| George Holani · Rec yds | U 10.5 | $1.75 | 74% (expects 6.8) | ✓ landed |
| George Holani · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.80 | 85% (expects 0.6) | ✓ landed |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec | U 6.5 | $1.89 | 59% (expects 6.5) | ✗ missed |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec yds | U 82.5 | $1.88 | 63% (expects 79.6) | ✗ missed |
| Rashid Shaheed · Rush yds | U 2.5 | $1.90 | 50% (expects 7.4) | ✓ landed |
| Rashid Shaheed · Rec yds | U 31.5 | $1.91 | 69% (expects 22.5) | ✓ landed |
| Rashid Shaheed · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.85 | 59% (expects 2.1) | ✓ landed |
| Sam Darnold · Rush yds | U 5.5 | $1.95 | 51% (expects 10.2) | ✓ landed |
| Sam Darnold · Pass yds | U 228.5 | $1.90 | 56% (expects 212.3) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1673 · New England Patriots 1589 · ELO difference: 85 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 57 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 56 | Seattle Seahawks +5 |
| Backfield | 75 | 58 | Seattle Seahawks +17 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 59 | 72 | New England Patriots +13 |
| Special Teams | 61 | 55 | Seattle Seahawks +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New England Patriots |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-06 08:57 UTC (latest tip update)