# Minnesota Vikings v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Minnesota Vikings 39 – 22 Green Bay Packers

_Minnesota Vikings rally to raid Green Bay Packers._

Half time: 10 – 19 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Minnesota Vikings 60% / Green Bay Packers 40% · U.S. Bank Stadium · Mon, 14 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson (29' Tipped ⚡), T.J. Hockenson (43'), Aaron Jones (54'), Jordan Mason (56'), Justin Jefferson (57' Tipped ⚡) · Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson (8' Tipped ⚡), Christian Watson (30' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 60% | Won |
| Green Bay Packers | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Sept 2026, 06:57 pm_

Minnesota Vikings 39–22 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 1 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Green Bay Packers led 19-10 at the break, and on the yardage sheet it looked worse than that for Minnesota Vikings. Jordan Love had already put up big passing numbers, Christian Watson had a touchdown in each of the first two quarters, and the Packers were moving the ball at will. Minnesota Vikings won this game 39-22. Work out how that happened and you've got the whole story.

The turn started slow. T.J. Hockenson's touchdown with 2:08 left in the third quarter cut it to 22-17, still a Green Bay Packers lead, still very much alive. Then the fourth quarter happened. Aaron Jones scored with 6:37 left, Jordan Mason followed four minutes later, and Justin Jefferson capped it with his second touchdown of the night at the 3:55 mark. Sixteen unanswered points in the last quarter turned a two-score deficit into a 39-22 laugher.

Green Bay Packers outgained Minnesota Vikings comfortably, 453 total yards to 258, and out-passed them 387 to 151. On paper that's a beating. On the scoreboard it wasn't, because the Packers gave the ball away twice to Minnesota's one, and Minnesota's pass rush got home four times to their three. Yardage without the ball in your hands is just a stat line.

Carson Wentz didn't need volume. 12 of 19 for 133 yards and three touchdowns is about as efficient as it gets, and paired with Jordan Mason's 59 yards on 15 carries and a score, Minnesota Vikings had enough on the ground and in the air to make every possession count. Jordan Love, by contrast, threw 42 times for his 387 yards and two touchdowns, but the interception mattered more than any of it. Christian Watson was excellent, 6 catches for 147 yards and both Green Bay touchdowns, and it still wasn't enough.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as competitive rather than a rout. Minnesota Vikings came in rated 1552 to Green Bay Packers' 1528, expected to win by 6 with a combined total of 50 points. The final margin blew that out to 17, though the model still called the winner correctly at 60 percent, and all three picks for this one landed.

Look at the positional read and the form line and it makes more sense. Green Bay Packers held the edge at quarterback, 63 to 35, and in the receiving corps, but Minnesota Vikings had the better pass rush, 60 to 49, and the clear edge in special teams, 68 to 57. That's roughly the story of the game: Green Bay moved the ball better, Minnesota did more with less and got home when it mattered. Add in the form guide, Vikings five wins from five with 10.4 points conceded a game on average, Packers five losses from five leaking 28.8, and the second-half collapse looks less like a shock and more like the pattern catching up with them.

Green Bay Packers had the yards. Minnesota Vikings had the points. Only one of those goes on the ladder.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 39 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 22 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:11 | Green Bay Packers | FG | — | 0-3 |
| Q1 7:43 | Green Bay Packers | TD | Christian Watson | 0-9 |
| Q1 1:38 | Minnesota Vikings | FG | — | 3-9 |
| Q2 13:52 | Green Bay Packers | FG | — | 3-12 |
| Q2 1:55 | Minnesota Vikings | TD | Justin Jefferson | 10-12 |
| Q2 0:14 | Green Bay Packers | TD | Christian Watson | 10-19 |
| Q3 5:09 | Green Bay Packers | FG | — | 10-22 |
| Q3 2:08 | Minnesota Vikings | TD | T.J. Hockenson | 17-22 |
| Q4 6:37 | Minnesota Vikings | TD | Aaron Jones Sr. | 25-22 |
| Q4 4:48 | Minnesota Vikings | TD | Jordan Mason | 32-22 |
| Q4 3:55 | Minnesota Vikings | TD | Justin Jefferson | 39-22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 258 | Total Yards | **453** |
| 151 | Passing Yards | **387** |
| **107** | Rushing Yards | 66 |
| 14 | First Downs | **19** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| 0 | Offensive EPA | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Minnesota Vikings to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 6.0 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.88 (edge +7.3%) — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ $1.94 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Minnesota Vikings 1-13 @ $2.40 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 37.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 52.9% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 6 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Minnesota Vikings are the call at 60%, but Green Bay Packers stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Minnesota Vikings sit 24 ELO points clear, 1552 to 1528. Minnesota Vikings closed last season the stronger side: 5 wins from their final 5 games to 0 for Green Bay Packers.

Minnesota Vikings own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Minnesota Vikings by 6.0, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Minnesota Vikings, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Minnesota Vikings have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Minnesota Vikings took the most recent meeting 39-22 in 2026 Week 1.

Minnesota Vikings went 4-0 in 2026 so far, 2-0 at home, averaging 21.5 points for and 12.8 against.

Green Bay Packers went 2-2 in 2026 so far, 2-1 away, averaging 18.3 points for and 26.3 against.

Kyler Murray starts under centre for Minnesota Vikings, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Kevin O'Connell and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Minnesota Vikings $1.95 and Green Bay Packers $1.87, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -1.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Minnesota Vikings 8 · Green Bay Packers 4 |
| Last meeting | Minnesota Vikings 39-22 (2026) |
| Minnesota Vikings 2026 so far | 4-0 · 2-0 home |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 21.5 for · 12.8 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2026 so far | 2-2 · 2-1 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 18.3 for · 26.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kyler Murray · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Kevin O'Connell · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | Minnesota Vikings $1.95 · Green Bay Packers $1.87 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -1.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 10.4pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Margin | -9.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W | 24.0 |
| Green Bay Packers | W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L · WC L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W1 | Minnesota Vikings | 39 – 22 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W18 | Minnesota Vikings | 16 – 3 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W12 | Green Bay Packers | 23 – 6 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2024 | W17 | Minnesota Vikings | 27 – 25 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2024 | W4 | Green Bay Packers | 29 – 31 | Minnesota Vikings |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at U.S. Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 11/19g | 28% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Carson Wentz | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | DeeJay Dallas | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | no games | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 11/20g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/9g | 24% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/17g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 27/47g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 57' |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.85 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 9/27g | 20% | — | 🏉 43' |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bo Melton | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | no games | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 30' |
| – | Jayden Reed | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 2/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | MarShawn Lloyd | RB | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.40 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Christian Watson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Jayden Reed — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

**Minnesota Vikings** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Kyler Murray — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Hockenson, A.Jones, J.Mason

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Green Bay Packers** (GB)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.29 | 61% (expects 3.3) | ✗ missed |
| Christian Watson · Rec yds | U 55.5 | $1.87 | 72% (expects 44.9) | ✗ missed |
| Jayden Reed · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 3.3) | ✓ landed |
| Jayden Reed · Rec yds | U 39.5 | $1.88 | 68% (expects 32.1) | ✓ landed |
| Jordan Love · Pass yds | U 238.5 | $1.88 | 64% (expects 200.2) | ✗ missed |
| Jordan Love · Rush yds | U 10.5 | $1.88 | 63% (expects 11.5) | ✓ landed |
| Jordan Love · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.78 | 58% (expects 1.2) | ✗ missed |
| MarShawn Lloyd · Rec yds | U 11.5 | $1.88 | 71% (expects 8.8) | ✓ landed |
| MarShawn Lloyd · Rush yds | U 52.5 | $1.88 | 93% (expects 16.6) | ✓ landed |
| MarShawn Lloyd · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.40 | 70% (expects 1.1) | ✓ landed |
| Matthew Golden · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 74% (expects 2.1) | ✗ missed |
| Matthew Golden · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $1.89 | 79% (expects 21.4) | ✗ missed |
| Tucker Kraft · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.30 | 61% (expects 3.3) | ✓ landed |
| Tucker Kraft · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.91 | 74% (expects 33.1) | ✗ missed |

**Minnesota Vikings** (MIN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings · Rec | O 2.5 | $2.45 | 64% (expects 3.1) | ✗ missed |
| Jauan Jennings · Rec yds | O 24.5 | $1.93 | 60% (expects 40.3) | ✗ missed |
| Jordan Addison · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.95 | 69% (expects 2.7) | ✓ landed |
| Jordan Addison · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 77% (expects 28.4) | ✓ landed |
| Jordan Mason · Rec yds | U 5.5 | $1.65 | 56% (expects 8.8) | ✓ landed |
| Jordan Mason · Rec | O 0.5 | $1.45 | 62% (expects 1.0) | ✗ missed |
| Jordan Mason · Rush yds | U 43.5 | $1.93 | 70% (expects 33.6) | ✗ missed |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.12 | 62% (expects 5.1) | ✗ missed |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec yds | U 73.5 | $1.94 | 73% (expects 61.3) | ✗ missed |
| Kyler Murray · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.71 | 58% (expects 1.2) | ✓ landed |
| Kyler Murray · Pass yds | U 222.5 | $1.90 | 64% (expects 184.6) | ✓ landed |
| Kyler Murray · Rush yds | U 21.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 21.7) | ✓ landed |
| T.J. Hockenson · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.98 | 70% (expects 2.7) | ✗ missed |
| T.J. Hockenson · Rec yds | U 27.5 | $1.88 | 65% (expects 22.6) | ✗ missed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Minnesota Vikings hold the ELO advantage (1552 vs 1528), but the market favours Green Bay Packers (@1.87). The model sides with ELO, Minnesota Vikings predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Minnesota Vikings 1552 · Green Bay Packers 1528 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 35 | 63 | Green Bay Packers +28 |
| Receiving Corps | 46 | 57 | Green Bay Packers +11 |
| Backfield | 47 | 48 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 49 | Minnesota Vikings +11 |
| Secondary | 46 | 53 | Green Bay Packers +7 |
| Special Teams | 68 | 57 | Minnesota Vikings +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Minnesota Vikings predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-06 08:57 UTC (latest tip update)