# Los Angeles Chargers v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 14 – 26 Arizona Cardinals

_Arizona Cardinals fly past Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 7 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 81% / Arizona Cardinals 19% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 14 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Omarion Hampton (11' Tipped ⚡), Ladd McConkey (39' Tipped ⚡) · Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love (7'), Trey McBride (49' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 81% | Lost |
| Arizona Cardinals | 19% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.1 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Sept 2026, 06:57 pm_

Los Angeles Chargers 14–26 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 1 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tied at 7-7 after the first quarter, this one flipped without anyone especially noticing. Arizona built six points across the second term to lead 13-7 at the break, and from there Los Angeles never got the margin back to level. That's the whole story of a 26-14 result at SoFi Stadium: a side that nudged ahead and just kept nudging.

Jeremiyah Love opened the scoring for Arizona inside the first quarter, Omarion Hampton answered straight back for the Chargers to level it at 7-7, and that was the last time the scoreboard read even. Ladd McConkey's touchdown with just over six minutes left in the third pulled Los Angeles within two, 13-16, and for a moment it looked like a genuine contest. Then Trey McBride went over early in the fourth to make it 22-14, and the Chargers had no answer left in the tank.

The yardage tells you why. Arizona finished with 393 total yards to 290, and got there with 277 through the air from Jacoby Brissett, who went 27-of-37 with a touchdown. Justin Herbert was tidier on completion percentage, 17-of-27 for 209 and a touchdown of his own, but he also threw the pick that Los Angeles could not afford. Two turnovers to none is a brutal number to carry into any four-quarter game, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: on the scoreboard.

Arizona's pass rush did its job too, getting home three times against Herbert compared to a single sack the other way. That pressure differential lines up neatly with the pre-match positional read, where the Cardinals held a real edge in receiving corps, 60 to 48, even with the Chargers rated stronger at the line getting after the quarterback, 55 to 46. On the day, it was Arizona's skill positions and secondary pressure that decided things, not the raw pass-rush number alone.

Individually, Trey McBride was the difference. Nine catches for 95 yards and a touchdown is the kind of afternoon that wins games on its own, and it did plenty of the heavy lifting here. Tyler Allgeier added the best rushing figures on the ground, 61 yards on 17 carries, giving Arizona balance that Los Angeles couldn't match. The Chargers had touchdowns from McConkey and Hampton but nowhere near enough support around them, finishing with 15 first downs to Arizona's 22.

For a team that had lost its last five coming in, averaging 18 points scored and 37 conceded, this was a long way from that form line. Los Angeles arrived with two wins in their last five and a much tighter defensive average, 17 points conceded, and were rated the stronger side by rest of the numbers going in.

That's exactly why Alphr's model had Los Angeles as 81% favourites, expected to win by 12.1 points on a projected total of 46. The scoreboard flipped that around entirely: Arizona by 12, total of 40. The model landed the under on 47.5 and got within six points on the total, but missed the winner and the direction of the margin, going 1 from 3 on the match overall. Some days the ratings and the result just don't shake hands.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 26 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:49 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Jeremiyah Love | 0-7 |
| Q1 4:22 | Los Angeles Chargers | TD | Omarion Hampton | 7-7 |
| Q2 6:51 | Arizona Cardinals | FG | — | 7-10 |
| Q2 0:00 | Arizona Cardinals | FG | — | 7-13 |
| Q3 7:25 | Arizona Cardinals | FG | — | 7-16 |
| Q3 6:03 | Los Angeles Chargers | TD | Ladd McConkey | 14-16 |
| Q4 11:44 | Arizona Cardinals | TD | Trey McBride | 14-23 |
| Q4 2:33 | Arizona Cardinals | FG | — | 14-26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 290 | Total Yards | **393** |
| 209 | Passing Yards | **277** |
| 81 | Rushing Yards | **116** |
| 15 | First Downs | **22** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 0 | Offensive EPA | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Arizona Cardinals defied the model's 81% prediction for Los Angeles Chargers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.1 but the actual margin was 12 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 40, within 6 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.18 (edge -3.7%) — model probability 81.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 @ $1.98 (edge +0.5%) — model probability 51.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Chargers 14+ @ $2.20 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 41.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.83 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 51.6% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 12 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model likes Los Angeles Chargers here, and likes them by a fair bit: 81% to beat Arizona Cardinals in the Week 1 opener at SoFi Stadium. The main reason is straightforward. Los Angeles Chargers sit 135 points clear on the ratings, 1525 to 1390, and the model leans on that gap along with Pass Rush and Recent Form as the three factors doing the heavy lifting.

Worth being straight about the positional picture though, because it's not a clean sweep. Los Angeles Chargers hold a real edge in Pass Rush, 55 to 46, and a big one in Special Teams, 68 to 51. But Arizona Cardinals actually rate higher in Receiving Corps, 60 to 48, and Quarterback is basically a coin flip, 51 to 50 their way. So this isn't the Chargers winning every column. It's the model backing the columns it thinks matter most.

History has gone the Chargers' way more often than not. Los Angeles Chargers lead the last eight meetings 5-3, though the most recent one didn't go to script: Arizona Cardinals won 17-15 at State Farm Stadium back in Week 7 of 2024. So there's a bit of previous here, even if it's a season-opener with no fresh tape to lean on.

Form is where the gap really shows. Los Angeles Chargers finished 2025 at 11-6, 6-3 at home, scoring 21.6 and conceding 20.0 a game, and closed out WWWLL before bowing out 16-3 in the Wild Card round. Arizona Cardinals finished 3-14, 2-7 on the road, leaking 28.7 a game against 20.9 scored, and finished the year LLLLL. Zero wins in their last five against two for Los Angeles Chargers. That losing run is the kind of thing a model doesn't forget just because the calendar's flipped.

Justin Herbert lines up against Jacoby Brissett, Jim Harbaugh against Jonathan Gannon. Rest is a non-issue, both sides on 7 days. Nothing there to swing it either way.

On the score shape, the model has Los Angeles Chargers winning by 12.1 with a combined total around 46. The market's spread sits at Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 and the total at 46.5, so the model's actually calling a slightly bigger margin than the line suggests, with the total tipped a touch under.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers at $1.17 and Arizona Cardinals out at $5.25, Chargers the clear favourite there too. The model's edge on the head-to-head is actually negative, -3.7%, meaning it thinks the price is a touch short of fair value. The margin play shows a small positive edge at +0.5%, and the under on the total shows -3.0%. None of it screaming value, more the model politely disagreeing with the market at the margins.

For the scorer markets, Omarion Hampton anytime touchdown is priced at $1.68 with the model giving him a 48% shot, the standout play on the card. Quentin Johnston anytime at $2.70 sits at 32%, Trey McBride anytime at $3.20 gets 30% despite playing for the trailing side, and Ladd McConkey rounds it out at $2.70 for 27%. First touchdown scorer is a longer shot across the board, Hampton the pick of those at $5.25 for 11%.

For Arizona Cardinals to cause any bother, they need Brissett and that Receiving Corps edge to actually show up on the field, because on paper it's the one place they're favoured. Everything else, the rating, the run of form, the pass rush, points the other way. The model's not hedging on this one: Los Angeles Chargers to win, and win comfortably.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Los Angeles Chargers 5 · Arizona Cardinals 4 |
| Last meeting | Arizona Cardinals 26-14 (2026) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2026 so far | 0-4 · 0-2 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 16.8 for · 26.5 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2026 so far | 1-3 · 1-2 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 21.8 for · 29.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Jacoby Brissett |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.17 · Arizona Cardinals $5.25 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 · total 46.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 14.4pts | Avg Score | 18.0pts |
| 17.0pts | Avg Conceded | 37.0pts |
| -2.6pts | Avg Margin | -19.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 L · WC L | 14.4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L | 18.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Arizona Cardinals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W1 | Los Angeles Chargers | 14 – 26 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2024 | W7 | Arizona Cardinals | 17 – 15 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2022 | W12 | Arizona Cardinals | 24 – 25 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2018 | W12 | Los Angeles Chargers | 45 – 10 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2014 | W1 | Arizona Cardinals | 18 – 17 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | David Njoku | TE | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/23g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 9/49g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/17g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.68 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | no games | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/24g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jeremiyah Love | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | no games | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | no games | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Michael Wilson 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Cardinals: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Love

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 48% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Arizona Cardinals** (ARI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.48 | 58% (expects 1.3) | ✓ landed |
| Jacoby Brissett · Pass yds | U 221.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 200.5) | ✗ missed |
| Jacoby Brissett · Rush yds | U 10.5 | $1.62 | 64% (expects 10.9) | ✗ missed |
| Kendrick Bourne · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.40 | 64% (expects 1.4) | ✗ missed |
| Kendrick Bourne · Rec yds | U 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% (expects 14.9) | ✗ missed |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.68 | 82% (expects 2.7) | ✓ landed |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. · Rec yds | U 48.5 | $1.90 | 74% (expects 34.9) | ✓ landed |
| Michael Wilson · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.88 | 67% (expects 4.9) | ✓ landed |
| Michael Wilson · Rec yds | O 41.5 | $1.88 | 55% (expects 53.0) | ✓ landed |
| Trey McBride · Rec yds | U 56.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 60.2) | ✗ missed |
| Trey McBride · Rec | U 6.5 | $1.70 | 67% (expects 5.8) | ✗ missed |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (LAC)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Kolar · Rec yds | U 16.5 | $1.88 | 82% (expects 8.7) | — |
| Charlie Kolar · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.30 | 74% (expects 0.9) | — |
| David Njoku · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.85 | 52% (expects 17.6) | ✗ missed |
| David Njoku · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.08 | 63% (expects 1.6) | ✗ missed |
| Justin Herbert · Rush yds | O 20.5 | $1.90 | 69% (expects 28.5) | ✓ landed |
| Justin Herbert · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.69 | 53% (expects 1.7) | ✓ landed |
| Justin Herbert · Pass yds | U 237.5 | $1.88 | 71% (expects 222.1) | ✓ landed |
| Ladd McConkey · Rec yds | U 53.5 | $1.88 | 75% (expects 36.5) | ✗ missed |
| Ladd McConkey · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.92 | 78% (expects 2.9) | ✗ missed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.68 | 56% (expects 2.3) | ✓ landed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rec yds | U 15.5 | $1.75 | 55% (expects 16.4) | ✓ landed |
| Omarion Hampton · Rush yds | U 65.5 | $1.91 | 84% (expects 37.6) | ✓ landed |
| Quentin Johnston · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.77 | 58% (expects 3.7) | ✓ landed |
| Quentin Johnston · Rec yds | U 42.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 44.5) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1525 · Arizona Cardinals 1390 · ELO difference: 135 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 50 | 51 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 60 | Arizona Cardinals +12 |
| Backfield | 51 | 48 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 46 | Los Angeles Chargers +9 |
| Secondary | 58 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 68 | 51 | Los Angeles Chargers +17 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-06 08:57 UTC (latest tip update)