# Las Vegas Raiders v Miami Dolphins — NFL Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 27 – 13 Miami Dolphins

_Las Vegas Raiders pillage Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 17 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 49% / Miami Dolphins 51% · Allegiant Stadium · Mon, 14 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: Jack Bech (14'), Ashton Jeanty (29' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Jeanty (36' Tipped ⚡) · Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis (33')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 51% | Lost |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Sept 2026, 06:57 pm_

Las Vegas Raiders 27–13 Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 1 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Las Vegas led 17-6 at the break, built off a Jack Bech score late in the first and Ashton Jeanty's first of the night in the second quarter. Nothing about the second half changed that story. It just extended it. Final score: Las Vegas Raiders 27, Miami Dolphins 13.

Miami got one crack at turning it around. Malik Willis ran one in with 12:44 left in the third to cut it to 17-12, and for about three minutes it looked like a genuine contest. Jeanty answered almost immediately, in at 9:58 to make it 23-13, and by the end of the third quarter it was 27-13 and done. Nothing scored in the fourth. There was nothing left to chase.

The yardage says this should have been close. Miami actually out-gained Las Vegas 294 to 290, and both sides coughed the ball up twice. But yardage without execution is just a number, and Las Vegas turned theirs into points far more efficiently. Nineteen first downs to eleven tells the real story: the Raiders controlled down and distance, and 130 rushing yards to Miami's 74 did the heavy lifting up front.

That's the bigger surprise given the pre-match picture. Miami came in rated well ahead in the backfield (52 to 36) and secondary (59 to 45), with a special-teams edge of 64 to 46. None of it showed up where it mattered. Las Vegas' pass rush got home five times, Miami's zero, and that pressure is exactly the kind of thing that turns a favourite's rated advantages into stat-sheet decoration.

Individually, Jeanty was the difference: 102 yards on 23 carries plus two touchdowns, doing the bulk of the damage Miami's run defence was supposedly built to stop. Through the air, Miami actually won the battle on paper, 220 yards to 160, with Malik Willis running hot at 15-of-27 with a touchdown to go with his one interception. Caleb Douglas was the single busiest target on the day, five catches for 94 yards, but volume without answers on the scoreboard doesn't count for much.

Form coming in made Miami the obvious side to back. Two wins from their last five against Las Vegas' one, an average score of 20 points against 12.4, a much healthier average margin. Las Vegas had been the league's punching bag lately, and nothing in that recent run pointed to a night like this. Sometimes the tape just doesn't matter.

Alphr's model had Miami favourites at 51 percent, expected them to win by 3, and pegged the total at 37. The total held up fine, the actual sat at 40, within 3 points. The rest didn't. Las Vegas won by 14, not lost by 3, and all three picks missed. A rough one for the model, and a reminder that ratings on paper still have to show up on the field.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 13 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:33 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Jack Bech | 7-0 |
| Q2 10:22 | Las Vegas Raiders | FG | Matt Gay | 10-0 |
| Q2 4:08 | Miami Dolphins | FG | Riley Patterson | 10-3 |
| Q2 1:07 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Ashton Jeanty | 17-3 |
| Q2 0:00 | Miami Dolphins | FG | Riley Patterson | 17-6 |
| Q3 12:44 | Miami Dolphins | TD | Malik Willis | 17-13 |
| Q3 9:58 | Las Vegas Raiders | TD | Ashton Jeanty | 24-13 |
| Q3 2:34 | Las Vegas Raiders | FG | Matt Gay | 27-13 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 290 | Total Yards | **294** |
| 160 | Passing Yards | **220** |
| **130** | Rushing Yards | 74 |
| **19** | First Downs | 11 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| 0 | Offensive EPA | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Las Vegas Raiders defied the model's 51% prediction for Miami Dolphins, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 37 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Miami Dolphins to win @ $2.52 (edge +11.3%) — model probability 50.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.84 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 54.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Miami Dolphins 1-13 @ $2.90 (edge -3.6%) — model probability 30.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 39.5 @ $1.99 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 52.6% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 3 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins. The model can't split them, landing on Miami Dolphins at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Miami Dolphins sit 107 ELO points clear, 1454 to 1347. Miami Dolphins closed last season the stronger side: 2 wins from their final 5 games to 1 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Miami Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Miami Dolphins by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 37. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Miami Dolphins have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Las Vegas Raiders took the most recent meeting 27-13 in 2026 Week 1.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-1 in 2026 so far, 1-1 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 21.0 against.

Miami Dolphins went 0-4 in 2026 so far, 0-3 away, averaging 11.5 points for and 25.3 against.

Kirk Cousins starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Malik Willis for Miami Dolphins, with Klint Kubliak and Jeff Hafley calling the shots.

The market has Las Vegas Raiders favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $1.51 and Miami Dolphins $2.64, with the spread at Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Las Vegas Raiders 3 · Miami Dolphins 9 |
| Last meeting | Las Vegas Raiders 27-13 (2026) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2026 so far | 3-1 · 1-1 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 28.8 for · 21.0 against |
| Miami Dolphins 2026 so far | 0-4 · 0-3 away |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 11.5 for · 25.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kirk Cousins · Malik Willis |
| Head coaches | Klint Kubliak · Jeff Hafley |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $1.51 · Miami Dolphins $2.64 |
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 · total 40.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 27.6pts |
| -12.4pts | Avg Margin | -7.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W | 12.4 |
| Miami Dolphins | W14 W · W15 L · W16 L · W17 W · W18 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Miami Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W1 | Las Vegas Raiders | 27 – 13 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2024 | W11 | Miami Dolphins | 34 – 19 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W11 | Miami Dolphins | 20 – 13 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2021 | W3 | Las Vegas Raiders | 31 – 28 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2020 | W16 | Las Vegas Raiders | 25 – 26 | Miami Dolphins |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/9g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 36' |
| – | Cody White | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Malik Benson | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/20g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/25g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.20 AI 20% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Caleb Douglas | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.25 AI 16% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Chris Bell | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.25 AI 16% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Kevin Coleman Jr. | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Malik Willis | QB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Will Kacmarek | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Miami Dolphins** (3 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Greg Dulcich — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 16% · no TD
- ⚡ Caleb Douglas — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 16% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Willis

**Las Vegas Raiders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Tre Tucker 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Bech

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Miami Dolphins** (MIA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane · Rush yds | U 69.5 | $1.88 | 64% (expects 64.7) | ✓ landed |
| De'Von Achane · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.77 | 71% (expects 3.5) | ✓ landed |
| De'Von Achane · Rec yds | U 31.5 | $1.88 | 68% (expects 24.4) | ✓ landed |
| Greg Dulcich · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.82 | 50% (expects 2.6) | ✗ missed |
| Greg Dulcich · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 28.3) | ✓ landed |
| Malik Washington · Rec yds | U 25.5 | $1.75 | 64% (expects 21.5) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Washington · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.85 | 55% (expects 2.4) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Willis · Pass yds | U 180.5 | $1.90 | 56% (expects 167.2) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Willis · Rush yds | U 36.5 | $1.85 | 82% (expects 20.3) | ✗ missed |
| Malik Willis · Pass TDs | O 0.5 | $1.50 | 72% (expects 1.0) | ✗ missed |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (LV)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.10 | 65% (expects 4.9) | — |
| Brock Bowers · Rec yds | U 62.5 | $1.90 | 71% (expects 52.5) | — |
| Jack Bech · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.92 | 59% (expects 1.9) | ✓ landed |
| Jack Bech · Rec yds | O 15.5 | $1.87 | 52% (expects 20.0) | ✓ landed |
| Jalen Nailor · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.62 | 59% (expects 1.9) | ✓ landed |
| Jalen Nailor · Rec yds | U 20.5 | $1.72 | 55% (expects 20.9) | ✗ missed |
| Kirk Cousins · Pass yds | O 213.5 | $1.88 | 58% (expects 216.4) | ✗ missed |
| Kirk Cousins · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.59 | 58% (expects 1.4) | ✗ missed |
| Michael Mayer · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.64 | 58% (expects 2.2) | ✗ missed |
| Michael Mayer · Rec yds | U 18.5 | $1.85 | 52% (expects 20.8) | ✗ missed |
| Tre Tucker · Rec yds | U 40.5 | $2.00 | 66% (expects 34.5) | ✓ landed |
| Tre Tucker · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.85 | 61% (expects 3.3) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Miami Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1454 vs 1347), but the market favours Las Vegas Raiders (@1.51). The model sides with ELO, Miami Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1347 · Miami Dolphins 1454 · ELO difference: 107 in favour of Miami Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Miami Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 45 | 46 | Even |
| Backfield | 36 | 52 | Miami Dolphins +16 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 45 | 59 | Miami Dolphins +14 |
| Special Teams | 46 | 64 | Miami Dolphins +18 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Miami Dolphins predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-06 08:57 UTC (latest tip update)