# Indianapolis Colts v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Indianapolis Colts 23 – 41 Baltimore Ravens

_Baltimore Ravens swoop on Indianapolis Colts._

Half time: 13 – 31 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Indianapolis Colts 24% / Baltimore Ravens 76% · Lucas Oil Stadium · Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor (5' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (28' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Warren (50' Tipped ⚡) · Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson (7'), Derrick Henry (11' Tipped ⚡), Zay Flowers (24' Tipped ⚡), Derrick Henry (25' Tipped ⚡), Derrick Henry (48' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 76% | Won |
| Indianapolis Colts | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.4 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 Sept 2026, 06:57 pm_

Indianapolis Colts 23–41 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 1 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Indianapolis led 6-0 after ten minutes and were down 6-27 by the time the second quarter wound to inside three minutes. That's the whole story in one stretch. Jonathan Taylor opened the scoring for the Colts, and then Baltimore answered with four unanswered touchdowns, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, then Henry again, before Taylor got the Colts on the board a second time deep in the second quarter. By half-time it was 31-13 and the game was effectively decided.

Baltimore Ravens won 41-23 at Lucas Oil Stadium, and nothing in the second half changed the shape of it. Henry added a third touchdown early in the fourth to push the margin out to 21, and while Tyler Warren got one back for Indianapolis, the Ravens had already banked enough.

The yardage gap tells you how one-sided the ball control was: 526 total yards to 268, and Baltimore ran for 202 of theirs, 38% of their output, against Indianapolis's 102. That's the backfield mismatch showing up exactly as billed. Going in, the Ravens' backfield rated 71 to the Colts' 47, the widest gap on the sheet, and Henry finishing with 144 yards on 24 carries and all three of his touchdowns is that rating cashed out in full.

Through the air, Lamar Jackson was efficient rather than busy: 17 of 25 for 324 yards and a touchdown, with Zay Flowers his go-to man on 5 catches for 150 yards and a score. Daniel Jones threw more, 19 of 31 for 166 yards, one touchdown, one pick, and the turnover mattered. Indianapolis lost the giveaway count 2-1, and against a team scoring at this rate there's no margin for that.

First downs went the Ravens' way 23-16, another marker of how long they kept the ball away from an Indianapolis offence that never really got its rhythm back after that early lead evaporated. Sacks were even at two apiece, so this wasn't decided in pass protection, it was decided by who could move the ball consistently and who couldn't stop them doing it.

Form coming in lined up with what showed up on the field. The Ravens arrived at 2 wins from their last 5, averaging 27 points scored and just 21 conceded, a positive margin of plus-6. The Colts were the opposite number entirely, five straight losses, 32.6 points conceded on average, a minus-10.8 margin. Baltimore's receiving corps and secondary both rated higher pre-match too, 49 to 44 and 60 to 54, and both edges turned up in a game where Indianapolis couldn't find enough answers on either side of the ball.

Alphr's model had Baltimore at 76% to win with a projected margin of 11.4 and a combined total of 53. The actual result, an 18-point win with 64 points on the board, ran hotter than the number but landed on the right side of it, and it was a clean sweep across all three picks for the match. Baltimore did what a plus-81 rating gap and a heavier backfield suggested they might. Indianapolis just never had an answer for it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 41 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:33 | Indianapolis Colts | TD | Jonathan Taylor | 6-0 |
| Q1 8:20 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Lamar Jackson | 6-7 |
| Q1 4:05 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Derrick Henry | 6-14 |
| Q2 6:54 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Zay Flowers | 6-21 |
| Q2 5:04 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Derrick Henry | 6-28 |
| Q2 2:16 | Indianapolis Colts | TD | Jonathan Taylor | 13-28 |
| Q2 0:00 | Baltimore Ravens | FG | Tyler Loop | 13-31 |
| Q3 7:55 | Indianapolis Colts | FG | Spencer Shrader | 16-31 |
| Q4 12:46 | Baltimore Ravens | TD | Derrick Henry | 16-38 |
| Q4 10:26 | Indianapolis Colts | TD | Tyler Warren | 23-38 |
| Q4 4:09 | Baltimore Ravens | FG | Tyler Loop | 23-41 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 268 | Total Yards | **526** |
| 166 | Passing Yards | **324** |
| 102 | Rushing Yards | **202** |
| 16 | First Downs | **23** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -7.2 | Offensive EPA | **17** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 11.4 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.58 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 76.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ $1.95 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 54.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 39.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 11 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model likes Baltimore Ravens here, 76% to beat Indianapolis Colts, and it's not close in its head. The Colts get 24%. Worth saying plainly: Baltimore Ravens are the pick, and most of what's supplied backs that up.

The gap starts with the ratings. Baltimore Ravens sit at 1545 ELO, Indianapolis Colts at 1464, an 81-point edge. That's the single biggest driver. Underneath it, the backfield rating is the standout mismatch: Baltimore Ravens 71 to the Colts' 47. The receiving corps also favours Baltimore Ravens, 49 to 44, and the secondary too, 60 to 54. Quarterback is dead even, 43 for Daniel Jones against 42 for Lamar Jackson, and pass rush and rest advantage are both called even as well. So this isn't a case of Baltimore Ravens winning every battle. It's a case of winning the ones that count.

History actually runs the other way. Indianapolis Colts lead the head-to-head 7-5 across the last 12 meetings, and they won the last one, 22-19 back in 2023 at M&T Bank Stadium. That's the kind of number that should make you pause before backing Baltimore Ravens blind. The model's clearly weighing current form and the ratings gap heavier than that history.

And current form does lean Baltimore Ravens. Both sides finished 2025 at 8-9 and missed the playoffs, so nobody's arriving with much swagger. But Indianapolis Colts limped home LLLLL, averaging 21.8 points scored and leaking 32.6 a game down the stretch, an average margin of minus 10.8. Baltimore Ravens went LWLWL over the same stretch, scoring 27 and conceding 21, a positive margin of plus 6. That form line is doing a lot of work in this read. Indianapolis Colts were solid at home last year, 6-3, and Baltimore Ravens travelled well, 5-3 on the road, so neither venue split is scary for the visitors.

Both teams are on 7 days' rest, nothing in it there. This is a Monday season opener, so no ladder implications yet, just first impressions. Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson both come in fresh off a lost season, looking to set an early tone.

On the scoreboard, the model has Baltimore Ravens winning by 11.4, with a combined total of 53. The market's spread has Baltimore Ravens -3.5, tighter than the model's margin, and the market total sits at 49.5, a touch under what the model expects.

The market price on Baltimore Ravens is $1.54, Indianapolis Colts out at $2.54, so the market already leans Baltimore Ravens too. The model just leans harder, with an edge of 13% on the head-to-head play at $1.58. The margin bet, Baltimore Ravens -3.5, is priced at $1.95 with a 3.5% edge, and the total, over 47.5, sits at $1.89 with a 2.2% edge. Small edges, not blowouts, but the model sees value on the favourite across the board here.

In the scoring markets, Derrick Henry anytime is $1.61 with the model giving him 61%, and Jonathan Taylor anytime sits at $1.60 with the model at 60%, so the model likes both workhorses to get on the board regardless of who wins. Zay Flowers anytime is $2.75 at 38%, Alec Pierce anytime $3.75 at 30%, Tyler Warren anytime $3.15 at 25%, and Mark Andrews anytime $3.50 at 24%. For first scorer, Henry ($5.70, 13%) and Taylor ($5.00, 13%) are the model's top picks, with Flowers ($12.50, 8%) and Pierce ($17.00, 7%) further back.

For Indianapolis Colts to flip this, they'd need the even factors, quarterback and pass rush, to actually break their way on the night, and their backfield to punch above a 47 rating against a 71. History says they can do it, they've won this fixture more often than not. But the model's not fussed by history here. It's backing the ELO gap, the secondary edge and the form line, and on those numbers it wants Baltimore Ravens comfortably.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Indianapolis Colts 6 · Baltimore Ravens 6 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 41-23 (2026) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2026 so far | 2-2 · 1-1 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 25.5 for · 26.0 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2026 so far | 3-1 · 2-0 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 29.0 for · 24.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Daniel Jones · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · Jesse Minter |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $2.54 · Baltimore Ravens $1.54 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 · total 49.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 27.0pts |
| 32.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.0pts |
| -10.8pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L | 21.8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W14 L · W15 W · W16 L · W17 W · W18 L | 27.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W1 | Indianapolis Colts | 23 – 41 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2023 | W3 | Baltimore Ravens | 19 – 22 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2021 | W5 | Baltimore Ravens | 31 – 25 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2020 | W9 | Indianapolis Colts | 10 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2017 | W16 | Baltimore Ravens | 23 – 16 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·2) | 0/1g | 9/32g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/19g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/38g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | no games | 9/10g (3·0·3·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/2g | 43/43g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.60 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 28' |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | no games | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/25g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kenneth Harris | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Seth McGowan | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Moore | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | no games | 10/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·2·4·0) | 9/15g | 5/7g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.61 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.70 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 25' 48' |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 1/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | no games | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Matthew Hibner | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 61% · **scored Q1, Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 4 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: L.Jackson

**Indianapolis Colts** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 60% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Alec Pierce 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Colts: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Baltimore Ravens** (BAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry · Rec yds | U 7.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 10.9) | ✗ missed |
| Derrick Henry · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.72 | 69% (expects 1.2) | ✓ landed |
| Derrick Henry · Rush yds | U 78.5 | $1.90 | 50% (expects 89.0) | ✗ missed |
| Justice Hill · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.30 | 75% (expects 0.9) | ✓ landed |
| Justice Hill · Rush yds | U 7.5 | $1.82 | 70% (expects 5.1) | ✗ missed |
| Justice Hill · Rec yds | U 12.5 | $1.92 | 79% (expects 6.6) | ✓ landed |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass yds | U 220.5 | $1.88 | 61% (expects 190.6) | ✗ missed |
| Lamar Jackson · Rush yds | U 36.5 | $1.88 | 82% (expects 21.9) | ✗ missed |
| Lamar Jackson · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.77 | 58% (expects 1.3) | ✓ landed |
| Mark Andrews · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.68 | 72% (expects 2.6) | ✗ missed |
| Mark Andrews · Rec yds | U 34.5 | $1.88 | 68% (expects 26.6) | ✗ missed |
| Rashod Bateman · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.51 | 61% (expects 1.6) | ✓ landed |
| Rashod Bateman · Rec yds | U 24.5 | $1.89 | 70% (expects 14.8) | ✓ landed |
| Zay Flowers · Rec yds | U 65.5 | $1.88 | 59% (expects 65.6) | ✗ missed |

**Indianapolis Colts** (IND)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones · Rush yds | U 15.5 | $1.65 | 76% (expects 10.3) | ✓ landed |
| Daniel Jones · Pass yds | U 232.5 | $1.88 | 64% (expects 188.8) | ✓ landed |
| Daniel Jones · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.65 | 58% (expects 1.4) | ✓ landed |
| Jonathan Taylor · Rec yds | O 16.5 | $1.85 | 51% (expects 20.2) | ✓ landed |
| Jonathan Taylor · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.10 | 55% (expects 2.4) | ✗ missed |
| Jonathan Taylor · Rush yds | U 77.5 | $1.90 | 62% (expects 75.8) | ✗ missed |
| Josh Downs · Rec yds | U 46.5 | $1.88 | 72% (expects 36.4) | ✓ landed |
| Tyler Warren · Rec yds | U 48.5 | $1.88 | 71% (expects 38.8) | ✓ landed |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1464 · Baltimore Ravens 1545 · ELO difference: 81 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 43 | 42 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 44 | 49 | Baltimore Ravens +5 |
| Backfield | 47 | 71 | Baltimore Ravens +24 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 54 | 60 | Baltimore Ravens +6 |
| Special Teams | 60 | 60 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-06 08:57 UTC (latest tip update)