# Pittsburgh Steelers v Houston Texans — NFL Wild Card 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – 30 Houston Texans

_Houston Texans put Pittsburgh Steelers to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 43% / Houston Texans 57% · Acrisure Stadium · Tue, 13 Jan, 12:00 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Pittsburgh Steelers: none · Houston Texans: Christian Kirk (22'), Sheldon Rankins (49'), Woody Marks (57' Tipped ⚡), Calen Bullock (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 57% | Won |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans Prediction and Tips - NFL Wild Card, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Jan 2026, 12:00 pm_

Pittsburgh Steelers 6–30 Houston Texans in NFL Wild Card at Acrisure Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Three quarters of football and this one was a one-score game. Pittsburgh trailed 6-7 at the break and were still only down by a point heading into the fourth. Then Houston scored three touchdowns in twelve minutes and turned a nail-biter into a 30-6 rout.

The damage came fast. Sheldon Rankins struck with 11:34 left to make it 16-6, Woody Marks followed at the 3:43 mark to push it to 23-6, and Christian Bullock added another with 2:52 to go for the final margin. Pittsburgh had nothing left to answer with. They didn't score again after their first-quarter field goal, full stop.

Go back to the start and the game actually looked competitive. Pittsburgh led 3-0 after the first quarter and were still within one score at three-quarter time. Christian Kirk's touchdown late in the second put Houston in front 7-6 at half-time, and that's roughly where things sat until the fourth quarter came apart at the seams.

The stat sheet explains why the collapse was coming. Houston finished with 414 total yards to Pittsburgh's 211, and 164 of those yards came on the ground, forty per cent of their offensive output. Woody Marks was the workhorse, 112 yards on 19 carries and a touchdown, and that's exactly what you'd expect given Houston went into this one with the stronger backfield rating on paper, 46 to Pittsburgh's 76 in Pittsburgh's favour according to the pre-match numbers, yet it was Houston who ran through them. Offensive EPA tells the same story in blunter terms: Houston at plus 5.8, Pittsburgh at minus 30.5. That's not a close game by the numbers, whatever the scoreboard said at half-time.

Through the air, C.J. Stroud was tidy rather than spectacular, 21-of-32 for 250 yards, a touchdown and a pick, with Christian Kirk doing most of the heavy lifting, 8 catches for 144 yards and the score. Aaron Rodgers threw for 146 on 17-of-33 with an interception of his own, and without a rushing game to lean on, Pittsburgh's offence had no second gear. Nineteen first downs to Houston's 32 says as much.

Turnovers actually went against Houston, 3 to Pittsburgh's 2, which in most games would've been the difference. Not here. Houston's pass rush got home four times to Pittsburgh's three, and when your offence is moving the chains at that clip, a stray giveaway barely registers.

Alphr's model had Houston in front pre-match, 57 per cent to win, and got the winner right. The margin call is where it came unstuck, tipped at 2.5 points and Houston won by 24. The total was closer to the mark, projected at 38 against an actual 36. Houston's form coming in, five straight wins and an average margin of 8.8, always hinted at a side capable of pulling away once it got going. It just took three quarters to show up.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Houston Texans | 0 | 7 | 0 | 23 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 211 | Total Yards | **414** |
| 148 | Passing Yards | **250** |
| 63 | Rushing Yards | **164** |
| 19 | First Downs | **32** |
| **2** | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -30.5 | Offensive EPA | **5.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Houston Texans to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 36, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 38.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 10 points below Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.65 (edge -3.4%) — model probability 57.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 38.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Houston Texans are the call at 57%, but Pittsburgh Steelers stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Houston Texans sit 115 ELO points clear, 1654 to 1539. Form leans Houston Texans' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

Houston Texans own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 38. Lean Houston Texans, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Houston Texans took the most recent meeting 30-6 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Aaron Rodgers starts under centre for Pittsburgh Steelers, C.J. Stroud for Houston Texans, with Mike Tomlin and DeMeco Ryans calling the shots.

The market has Houston Texans favourites, Pittsburgh Steelers $2.30 and Houston Texans $1.65, with the spread at Houston Texans -3 and the total at 38.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Pittsburgh Steelers 5 · Houston Texans 4 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 30-6 (2025) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 6-3 home |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Aaron Rodgers · C.J. Stroud |
| Head coaches | Mike Tomlin · DeMeco Ryans |
| Market | Pittsburgh Steelers $2.30 · Houston Texans $1.65 |
| Spread | Houston Texans -3 · total 38.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9W–4L | 69% |
| Houston Texans | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Craig Wrolstad, Pittsburgh Steelers 9W–4L (69%) and Houston Texans 5W–2L (71%). Small sample (7 games for Houston Texans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 28.2pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.4pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 W | 23.2 |
| Houston Texans | W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W | 28.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 – 30 | Houston Texans |
| 2023 | W4 | Houston Texans | 30 – 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2020 | W3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 28 – 21 | Houston Texans |
| 2017 | W16 | Houston Texans | 6 – 34 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2014 | W7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 30 – 23 | Houston Texans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Acrisure Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 8 in 16g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/32g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/9g | 22% | — | — |
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/8g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/26g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/25g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Mason Rudolph | QB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.25 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | British Brooks | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cade Stover | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Houston Texans** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Woody Marks 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Jayden Higgins — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- ⚡ Dalton Schultz — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Kirk, S.Rankins, C.Bullock

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Pittsburgh Steelers 1539 · Houston Texans 1654 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Pittsburgh Steelers | Houston Texans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 58 | Houston Texans +5 |
| Backfield | 76 | 46 | Pittsburgh Steelers +30 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 54 | 62 | Houston Texans +8 |
| Special Teams | 62 | 77 | Houston Texans +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Houston Texans predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-wc-pittsburgh-steelers-v-houston-texans
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-01-13 01:00 UTC (latest tip update)