# Philadelphia Eagles v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Wild Card 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Philadelphia Eagles 19 – 23 San Francisco 49ers

_San Francisco 49ers rally to stake a claim over Philadelphia Eagles._

Half time: 13 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 58% / San Francisco 49ers 42% · Lincoln Financial Field · Mon, 12 Jan, 08:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert (9' Tipped ⚡), Dallas Goedert (24' Tipped ⚡) · San Francisco 49ers: Demarcus Robinson (4'), Christian McCaffrey (45' Tipped ⚡), Christian McCaffrey (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 58% | Lost |
| San Francisco 49ers | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Wild Card, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 Jan 2026, 08:30 am_

Philadelphia Eagles 19–23 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Wild Card at Lincoln Financial Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had the Eagles at 1618 to San Francisco's 1582, good for a 58% win probability and a 5.5-point margin in Philadelphia's favour. Final score: 49ers 23, Eagles 19. The number was close. The side wasn't.

It's worth saying the model's overall shape held up fine even in defeat. Combined total of 39 against an actual 42, within three points. Predicted margin of 5.5 against an actual four-point result, close enough to call reasonable. The bit it got wrong was who'd be standing at the end, and that's the only bit that matters on the scoreboard.

The game ran to a familiar shape before it didn't. Demarcus Robinson opened the scoring for San Francisco with 11:54 left in the first, then Dallas Goedert answered with 6:20 left in the same quarter to make it 6-7. Philadelphia closed the first up 6-7 and then took the lead in the second when Goedert struck again with 6:13 left, making it 12-7. The Eagles carried a 13-10 edge into the break and stretched it to 16-10 through three quarters. Then Christian McCaffrey happened, twice. He levelled it at 16-16 to open the fourth, then put San Francisco in front for good with 2:59 left on the clock, 23-19 the final scoreline.

Strip out the scoreboard and San Francisco were the stronger side by most of the numbers that usually decide these things. They outgained Philadelphia 366 yards to 308, picked up 31 first downs to 25, and were up 8.7 in offensive EPA, 5.7 to minus 3. That's a fairly clean efficiency edge, snap for snap, and it lines up with the pre-match read that had San Francisco's quarterback spot rated well clear, 77 to 46.

What should have undone the 49ers was the turnover column. Two giveaways to none is normally a losing hand in this league, and for three quarters it looked like it might be exactly that. Philadelphia nursed a lead built on Goedert's two scores and a heavier rushing effort, 140 yards to San Francisco's 75. Saquon Barkley did the damage on the ground, 106 yards on 26 carries, and it's a fair chunk of why the Eagles were still in front with a quarter to go.

But San Francisco had Brock Purdy throwing for 262 yards and two touchdowns against Jalen Hurts's 168 yards and one, and when it mattered most the 49ers made their advantage count. McCaffrey's pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns did what the yardage gap had been threatening to do all game. Demarcus Robinson was the standout target beyond that, 6 catches for 111 yards and the game's opening score.

Philadelphia will look at the turnover count and the fourth quarter and wonder how they let a two-score cushion built through three quarters slip away without forcing a single takeaway of their own. San Francisco came in on the back of four wins from five and averaging 31.2 points a game, form that suggested they had another gear even when the scoreboard said otherwise. On this night, they found it exactly when they needed it, and the model's read on the contest, tight and competitive, turned out to be the right one even if the favourite didn't come home.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total Yards | **366** |
| 168 | Passing Yards | **291** |
| **140** | Rushing Yards | 75 |
| 25 | First Downs | **31** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -3 | Offensive EPA | **5.7** |

**Model Report Card**

San Francisco 49ers defied the model's 58% prediction for Philadelphia Eagles, a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Alan Eck's career average of 45. San Francisco 49ers bucked the trend, Philadelphia Eagles historically win 100% of games under Alan Eck, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Alan Eck's 69% career home-team win rate, the away side San Francisco 49ers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.38 (edge -14.8%) — model probability 57.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Philadelphia Eagles are the call at 58%, but San Francisco 49ers stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 35 ELO points clear, 1618 to 1582. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Philadelphia Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Philadelphia Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and San Francisco 49ers took the most recent meeting 23-19 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Jalen Hurts starts under centre for Philadelphia Eagles, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Nick Sirianni and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Philadelphia Eagles $1.38 and San Francisco 49ers $3.15, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -6 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Philadelphia Eagles 7 · San Francisco 49ers 5 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 23-19 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jalen Hurts · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · Kyle Shanahan |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $1.38 · San Francisco 49ers $3.15 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -6 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3W–0L | 100% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1W–2L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.8 pts · Home win %: 69% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alan Eck officiates, Philadelphia Eagles have won 3 of 3 games (100%), significantly stronger than San Francisco 49ers's 1 from 3 (33%). Home teams win 69% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Philadelphia Eagles).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 31.2pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| 6.6pts | Avg Margin | 9.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | W14 L · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L | 21.8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W13 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L | 31.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Philadelphia Eagles | 19 – 23 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2023 | W13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 19 – 42 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2022 | CONF | Philadelphia Eagles | 31 – 7 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2021 | W2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11 – 17 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2020 | W4 | San Francisco 49ers | 20 – 25 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 11 in 15g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/2g | 17/57g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 24' |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 17/22g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.89 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 8 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 38/48g | 46% | — | — |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 21/34g | 38% | — | — |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 19/45g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/17g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 3% | — | — |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 17 in 17g | 11/10g (0·2·0·3·1·1·1·2·1·0) | 3/4g | 2/3g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 58' |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 9 in 15g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $19.00 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 3/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Malik Turner | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 59% · **scored Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ George Kittle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Jake Tonges — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Robinson

**Philadelphia Eagles** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- Rest of the Eagles: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1618 · San Francisco 49ers 1582 · ELO difference: 35 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 46 | 77 | San Francisco 49ers +31 |
| Receiving Corps | 67 | 65 | Even |
| Backfield | 55 | 60 | San Francisco 49ers +5 |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 46 | Philadelphia Eagles +14 |
| Secondary | 59 | 49 | Philadelphia Eagles +10 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 68 | San Francisco 49ers +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-11 21:30 UTC (latest tip update)