# New England Patriots v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Wild Card 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 16 – 3 Los Angeles Chargers

_New England Patriots outgun Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 6 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 75% / Los Angeles Chargers 25% · Gillette Stadium · Mon, 12 Jan, 12:00 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: Hunter Henry (51' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Chargers: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 75% | Won |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.2 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Tips - NFL Wild Card, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 Jan 2026, 12:00 pm_

New England Patriots 16–3 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Wild Card at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nobody scored in the first quarter, and for a while it looked like that might be the whole story. New England led 6-3 at the break, the kind of margin that leaves a game breathing, and Los Angeles Chargers were still in it heading into the fourth. Then Hunter Henry crossed with 9:52 left, the only touchdown of the night, and the Chargers' chase turned into a lost cause. 16-3 the final, but for three quarters it was closer than that scoreline suggests.

The gap didn't open through one big moment. It built. New England went to 9-3 through the third without finding the end zone at all, just enough to keep the Chargers at arm's length, then Henry's score with under ten to go put it out of reach. Los Angeles never got another look at the board after halftime.

The stat sheet backs up what the clock showed. New England finished with 414 total yards to 246, a 268-159 edge through the air and 146-87 on the ground. First downs went 31-22. None of that is a photo finish, and the EPA split confirms it: New England's offence was +12.6 expected points clear of the Chargers' snap for snap, with LA sitting at minus-15 for the game. That's an offence that couldn't sustain drives, not one that got unlucky.

Drake Maye went 17-of-29 for 268 yards with the one touchdown and one interception, and he did damage with his legs too, 66 yards on 10 carries to lead all rushers. Rhamondre Stevenson was the top target on the night, just three catches but 75 yards worth, the kind of efficiency that turns a solid total into a comfortable one. Justin Herbert was tidier by volume, 19-of-31 for 159, but the yardage never turned into points. New England also won the pass rush battle 6 sacks to 5, which tells you Herbert wasn't exactly working in a clean pocket either.

Los Angeles will point to the turnover count, they actually won that battle 1 to 2, and in a lot of games that's enough to hang around. It wasn't here. When you're outgained by 168 yards and can't find the end zone all night, one fewer giveaway doesn't move the needle much. The form line coming in had the Chargers on a two-game skid after opening 3-0, and this had the shape of a team still searching for whatever clicked in September.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged fairly well. New England went in rated 1596 to LA's 1556, with the model giving the Patriots a 75% win probability and a predicted margin of 10.2. They won by 13. The positional read also lines up: New England held clear edges at quarterback (78 to 50) and backfield (78 to 51), exactly the two areas that showed up in Maye's rushing numbers and the ground game's 146 yards. The one place the model had LA ahead, the secondary at 58 to 51, didn't matter much when their offence couldn't generate enough to test it. The total came in at 19 points against a predicted 45, a defensive slog compared to what was forecast, but the margin call held up nicely.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| **414** | Total Yards | 246 |
| **268** | Passing Yards | 159 |
| **146** | Rushing Yards | 87 |
| **31** | First Downs | 22 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 5 |
| **-2.4** | Offensive EPA | -15 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 75% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting New England Patriots by 10.2 vs the actual margin of 13 points. The game's 19 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 45. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ron Torbert officiated this match (150 career games). The combined score of 19 points was 27 points below Ron Torbert's career average of 46. New England Patriots's victory aligns with Ron Torbert's historical trend, New England Patriots have a 60% win rate under this referee. New England Patriots's home victory fits Ron Torbert's profile, home teams win 55% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.51 (edge +8.4%) — model probability 74.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 10 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New England Patriots here: 75% to see off Los Angeles Chargers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New England Patriots sit 39 ELO points clear, 1596 to 1556. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Los Angeles Chargers.

New England Patriots own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has New England Patriots by 10.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. New England Patriots to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New England Patriots have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 16-3 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Mike Vrabel and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New England Patriots $1.51 and Los Angeles Chargers $2.64, with the spread at New England Patriots -3.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New England Patriots 9 · Los Angeles Chargers 3 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 16-3 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Jim Harbaugh |
| Market | New England Patriots $1.51 · Los Angeles Chargers $2.64 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Ron Torbert |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Ron Torbert** — 150 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under Ron Torbert | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 6W–4L | 60% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3W–4L | 43% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ron Torbert officiates, New England Patriots have won 6 of 10 games (60%), significantly stronger than Los Angeles Chargers's 3 from 7 (43%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Los Angeles Chargers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 34.4pts | Avg Score | 18.2pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | 0.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W13 W · W15 L · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W | 34.4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 L | 18.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | New England Patriots | 16 – 3 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2024 | W17 | New England Patriots | 7 – 40 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2023 | W13 | New England Patriots | 0 – 6 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2021 | W8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 24 – 27 | New England Patriots |
| 2020 | W13 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0 – 45 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 10 in 17g | 9/10g (0·0·2·3·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 8/9g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 51% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 9 in 14g | 9/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·3) | 0/3g | 17/32g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 51% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 14/41g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/16g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/15g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 9/15g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/22g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 2/16g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jack Westover | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 8 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 25% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jaret Patterson | RB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hassan Haskins | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tucker Fisk | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 51% · no TD
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 51% · no TD
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Hunter Henry — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Patriots: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1596 · Los Angeles Chargers 1556 · ELO difference: 39 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 78 | 50 | New England Patriots +28 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 48 | New England Patriots +13 |
| Backfield | 78 | 51 | New England Patriots +27 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 51 | 58 | Los Angeles Chargers +7 |
| Special Teams | 67 | 68 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-12 01:00 UTC (latest tip update)