# Jacksonville Jaguars v Buffalo Bills — NFL Wild Card 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – 27 Buffalo Bills

_Buffalo Bills stampede past Jacksonville Jaguars in a tight one._

Half time: 7 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 74% / Buffalo Bills 26% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Mon, 12 Jan, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Thomas (16'), Parker Washington (47' Tipped ⚡), Travis Etienne (56' Tipped ⚡) · Buffalo Bills: Josh Hines-Allen (25' Tipped ⚡), Dalton Kincaid (51'), Josh Hines-Allen (59' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 74% | Lost |
| Buffalo Bills | 26% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Prediction and Tips - NFL Wild Card, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 Jan 2026, 05:00 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 24–27 Buffalo Bills in NFL Wild Card at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirteen expected points to one and a half. That's the offensive EPA split between Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars, and it's the number that explains a 27-24 scoreline the raw yardage never would have predicted on its own.

Jacksonville actually won the yardage battle, 361 to 352. They ran for 154 of it, 43% of their total output, and still lost. The answer sits in the turnover column: two giveaways to none. When one side is that much more efficient with the ball it has, gaudy total yards from the other side just mean more empty trips downfield.

The game had a proper heartbeat to it. Brian Thomas Jr. got Jacksonville on the board first with 14:18 left in the second quarter, only for Josh Allen to answer before half-time and put Buffalo up 10-7 at the break. Jacksonville went back in front through Parker Washington with 13:01 to go in the fourth, Buffalo's Dalton Kincaid answered, Travis Etienne put Jacksonville up 23-20 with 4:10 remaining, and Allen had the final word with his second touchdown at 1:05 left. The lead changed hands four times in the fourth quarter alone, and nobody led by more than a field goal at any point after half-time.

Through the air, Trevor Lawrence went 18-of-30 for 207 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Josh Allen went 28-of-35 for 273 yards and just the one passing score, but it was his name on both the opening reply and the final say. Travis Etienne led all rushers with 67 yards on 10 carries, doing the heavy lifting in a run game that outgained Buffalo's 154 to 79. Parker Washington was the standout target on the day, seven catches for 107 yards and a touchdown, proof Jacksonville could move the footy just fine. Moving it and finishing drives clean weren't the same thing.

That's the whole story of Jacksonville's night. They came in with the better quarterback rating on paper, 91 to 65, a stronger secondary and a special teams unit rated well above Buffalo's. Five straight wins, an average margin near 20 points across their last five. All of that showed up in patches: in the running game, in Washington's afternoon, in the yardage column. None of it survived two turnovers against an offence playing at plus-11.5 expected points per snap over its opponent.

Alphr's model had Jacksonville favoured at 74% and

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| Buffalo Bills | 3 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| **361** | Total Yards | 352 |
| 207 | Passing Yards | **273** |
| **154** | Rushing Yards | 79 |
| 30 | First Downs | **32** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| 1.5 | Offensive EPA | **13** |

**Model Report Card**

Buffalo Bills defied the model's 74% prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. Total score prediction of 51 was close to the actual 51, within 0 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 6 points above Brad Allen's career average of 45. Buffalo Bills's victory aligns with Brad Allen's historical trend, Buffalo Bills have a 69% win rate under this referee. Despite Brad Allen's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Buffalo Bills prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.82 (edge +18.6%) — model probability 73.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Jacksonville Jaguars here: 74% to see off Buffalo Bills. The ratings say otherwise: Buffalo Bills sit 51 ELO points clear, 1658 to 1607, so the model is backing Jacksonville Jaguars against the ratings gap. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Buffalo Bills.

Jacksonville Jaguars own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 51. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Jacksonville Jaguars to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Buffalo Bills taking the most recent 27-24 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Buffalo Bills went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 21.5 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Josh Allen for Buffalo Bills, with Liam Coen and Sean McDermott calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $1.82 and Buffalo Bills $2.02, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 and the total at 51.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Jacksonville Jaguars 6 · Buffalo Bills 6 |
| Last meeting | Buffalo Bills 27-24 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Buffalo Bills 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 28.3 for · 21.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Josh Allen |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Sean McDermott |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $1.82 · Buffalo Bills $2.02 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Buffalo Bills

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6W–8L | 43% |
| Buffalo Bills | 9W–4L | 69% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, Buffalo Bills have won 9 of 13 games (69%), significantly stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars's 6 from 14 (43%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 36.4pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W | 36.4 |
| Buffalo Bills | W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 W | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Buffalo Bills lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 – 27 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2024 | W3 | Buffalo Bills | 47 – 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2023 | W5 | Buffalo Bills | 20 – 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2021 | W9 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 – 6 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2018 | W12 | Buffalo Bills | 24 – 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 13 in 17g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·0·2·3·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 17/31g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.74 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 9 in 17g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 0/3g | 10/36g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/9g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/16g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 3/17g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/15g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 36% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | James Cook | RB | 14 in 17g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·3·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 50% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 14 in 16g | 11/10g (2·2·0·3·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.92 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 59' |
| – | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Keon Coleman | WR | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Hawes | TE | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Gabe Davis | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/5g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Shavers | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 3/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Frank Gore Jr. | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Buffalo Bills** (2 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 50% · no TD
- ⚡ Josh Allen 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- Rest of the Bills: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Kincaid

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 4 pass) · model 53% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Parker Washington 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Brenton Strange — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Thomas

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Buffalo Bills hold the ELO advantage (1658 vs 1607), but the market favours Jacksonville Jaguars (@1.82). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1607 · Buffalo Bills 1658 · ELO difference: 51 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Buffalo Bills | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 91 | 65 | Jacksonville Jaguars +26 |
| Receiving Corps | 68 | 58 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10 |
| Backfield | 51 | 65 | Buffalo Bills +14 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 65 | 51 | Jacksonville Jaguars +14 |
| Special Teams | 83 | 56 | Jacksonville Jaguars +27 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-wc-jacksonville-jaguars-v-buffalo-bills
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-01-11 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)