# Chicago Bears v Green Bay Packers — NFL Wild Card 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 31 – 27 Green Bay Packers

_Chicago Bears roar back to maul Green Bay Packers from 18 down._

Half time: 3 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 68% / Green Bay Packers 32% · Soldier Field · Sun, 11 Jan, 12:00 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: D'Andre Swift (50' Tipped ⚡), Olamide Zaccheaus (56'), DJ Moore (59' Tipped ⚡) · Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson (13' Tipped ⚡), Jayden Reed (24'), Romeo Doubs (28'), Matthew Golden (54')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 68% | Won |
| Green Bay Packers | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Wild Card, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Jan 2026, 12:00 pm_

Chicago Bears 31–27 Green Bay Packers in NFL Wild Card at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Chicago Bears were down 3 to 21 at half-time and still down 6 to 21 through three quarters, an outcome that had the look of a laugher at Soldier Field. Then the fourth quarter flipped it. D'Andre Swift scored with 10:12 left, Olamide Zaccheaus with 4:21 left and DJ Moore with 1:48 left, and an 18-point hole became a 31 to 27 win. Green Bay Packers got one more in between, Matthew Golden at the 6:44 mark, but it wasn't enough to hold the door shut once Chicago Bears started scoring in bunches.

That fourth-quarter run is the whole story of the final score, but it's worth asking how a team down three scores was ever going to have the yards to pull it off. The answer is Chicago Bears had them the whole game. They finished with 454 total yards to Green Bay Packers' 422, and 41 first downs to 36. The scoreboard just took three quarters to catch up to the stat sheet.

Where Green Bay Packers actually won the night was efficiency, not volume. Their offensive EPA of 15.2 dwarfed Chicago Bears' 8.2, which explains how they were up three scores at half-time despite getting outgained for long stretches. Jordan Love threw four touchdowns on 24 of 46 for 323 yards, sharp when it mattered in the first half. Caleb Williams matched him throw for throw in volume, 24 of 48 for 361 yards and two touchdowns, but his two interceptions are the kind of number that keeps a team stuck in an 18-point deficit for as long as Chicago Bears were stuck in one.

Turnovers were the difference the stat sheet promises and the game very nearly delivered. Chicago Bears coughed it up twice, Green Bay Packers not once, and yet Chicago Bears still found a way through.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 31 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| **454** | Total Yards | 422 |
| **361** | Passing Yards | 323 |
| 93 | Rushing Yards | **99** |
| **41** | First Downs | 36 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| 8.2 | Offensive EPA | **15.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Chicago Bears to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Chicago Bears by 5.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 53 was close to the actual 58, within 5 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 14 points above Adrian Hill's career average of 44.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $2.14 (edge +20.8%) — model probability 67.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 5 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Chicago Bears here: 68% to see off Green Bay Packers. The ratings say otherwise: Green Bay Packers sit 22 ELO points clear, 1556 to 1534, so the model is backing Chicago Bears against the ratings gap. Form leans Chicago Bears' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Green Bay Packers.

Chicago Bears own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Pass Rush and Recent Form. The margin model has Chicago Bears by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 53. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Chicago Bears to win, not to win big.

Green Bay Packers have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 31-27 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Ben Johnson and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Chicago Bears $2.14 and Green Bay Packers $1.74, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -2.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 3 · Green Bay Packers 9 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 31-27 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-2 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | Chicago Bears $2.14 · Green Bay Packers $1.74 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -2.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 5W–3L | 63% |
| Green Bay Packers | 2W–1L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.4 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Adrian Hill, Chicago Bears 5W–3L (63%) and Green Bay Packers 2W–1L (67%). Small sample (3 games for Green Bay Packers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 4.0pts | Avg Margin | -7.4pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W14 L · W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 L | 25.6 |
| Green Bay Packers | W14 W · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Chicago Bears lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Chicago Bears | 31 – 27 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W16 | Chicago Bears | 22 – 16 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W14 | Green Bay Packers | 28 – 21 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W18 | Green Bay Packers | 22 – 24 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W11 | Chicago Bears | 19 – 20 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 10 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0) | 4/10g | 7/18g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 7 in 17g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 14/24g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 6 in 16g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 2/8g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/13g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/8g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/16g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 10/48g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/7g | 14% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 14 in 15g | 8/10g (2·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 6/7g | 1/3g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.74 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 2/3g | 30% | 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 6 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 3/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Reed | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 30% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Josh Whyle | TE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 54' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Watson, J.Reed, R.Doubs, M.Golden

**Chicago Bears** (5 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 46% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Colston Loveland 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Rome Odunze — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Zaccheaus

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1534 · Green Bay Packers 1556 · ELO difference: 22 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 66 | 63 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 62 | 48 | Chicago Bears +14 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 49 | Chicago Bears +10 |
| Secondary | 52 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 68 | 57 | Chicago Bears +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-11 01:00 UTC (latest tip update)