# Carolina Panthers v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Wild Card 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carolina Panthers 31 – 34 Los Angeles Rams

_Los Angeles Rams survive a scare against Carolina Panthers._

Half time: 14 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carolina Panthers 33% / Los Angeles Rams 67% · Bank of America Stadium · Sun, 11 Jan, 08:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Carolina Panthers: Chuba Hubbard (22'), Bryce Young (30'), Chuba Hubbard (46'), Jalen Coker (58') · Los Angeles Rams: Puka Nacua (4' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (18' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (52' Tipped ⚡), Colby Parkinson (60' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 67% | Won |
| Carolina Panthers | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Wild Card, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Jan 2026, 08:30 am_

Carolina Panthers 31–34 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Wild Card at Bank of America Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Rams got out of Bank of America Stadium 34-31, and on paper that looks like a scrap. It wasn't, not really. The Rams ran up an Offensive EPA of 6.1 to Carolina's minus 4.7, a gap of nearly 11 points of expected value per the model's own numbers, and outgained the Panthers 420 yards to 347. A three-point margin dressed up a performance that was closer to a stroll for long stretches.

The scoreboard tells a different story only because Carolina kept refusing to go away. Puka Nacua opened it up 11:39 into the first quarter and struck again in the second to put LA up 13-0, and it looked like the gulf in class, quarterback rating 82 versus 55, receiving corps 76 versus 50, was about to show up exactly as advertised. Chuba Hubbard's first touchdown and a Bryce Young score right before halftime dragged Carolina back to 14-17 at the break. That's a game trailing by a field goal, not a beating.

The fourth quarter turned into a straight shootout. Hubbard's second touchdown gave Carolina their first lead, 23-20, with 14:38 left. Kyren Williams answered for LA within six minutes. Jalen Coker put the Panthers back in front 30-27 with 2:43 to go. Colby Parkinson settled it with 43 seconds on the clock, and that was that. Four lead changes in a game the model had pegged as a comfortable Rams win going in.

Through the air, Matthew Stafford's 24-of-42 for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns did the heavy lifting for LA, and Kyren Williams added 57 rushing yards on just 13 carries, the best mark of anyone on the field. Carolina's response came almost entirely from two places. Bryce Young threw for 264 yards on 21-of-40 with a touchdown and an interception, competent without being decisive, and Jalen Coker turned into the game's leading receiver regardless of jersey colour: 9 catches for 134 yards and a score. That's a huge night from a Panthers wide receiver against a defence rated well above Carolina's own unit on paper.

Where the gap actually showed was up front. Carolina's rushing total of 83 yards against LA's 116, plus a 29-to-36 deficit in first downs and two sacks conceded to LA's one, all point the same direction: LA's backfield rating of 66 against Carolina's 42 held up, and it let the Rams control the ball when they needed to rather than trading scores by accident.

Form lines had this pegged too. LA came in averaging 36.8 points a game across their last five with a plus 9.6 margin, Carolina at 19 points and minus 3.2. Both sides largely delivered on brand, just with the Panthers finding a way to make it uncomfortable.

Alphr's model called the Rams at 67 percent and had the margin at 4 points, and the actual 3-point result landed about as close as forecasting gets. The total was the miss: 37 points predicted, 65 delivered, 28 points over. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one leaned heavily on both fronts.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carolina Panthers | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 347 | Total Yards | **420** |
| 264 | Passing Yards | **304** |
| 83 | Rushing Yards | **116** |
| 29 | First Downs | **36** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| -4.7 | Offensive EPA | **6.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Rams by 4.0 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 65 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 37. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 65 points was 19 points above Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Los Angeles Rams's victory aligns with Clete Blakeman's historical trend, Los Angeles Rams have a 50% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.18 (edge -17.4%) — model probability 67.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carolina Panthers +10 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 4 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 67% to see off Carolina Panthers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 265 ELO points clear, 1658 to 1393. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Carolina Panthers.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 37. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Los Angeles Rams to win, not to win big.

Carolina Panthers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 34-31 in 2025 the Wild Card round.

Carolina Panthers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 18.3 points for and 22.4 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Bryce Young starts under centre for Carolina Panthers, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Dave Canales and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Carolina Panthers $5.10 and Los Angeles Rams $1.18, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -10 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Carolina Panthers 7 · Los Angeles Rams 5 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 34-31 (2025) |
| Carolina Panthers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 home |
| Carolina Panthers scoring | 18.3 for · 22.4 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bryce Young · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Dave Canales · Sean McVay |
| Market | Carolina Panthers $5.10 · Los Angeles Rams $1.18 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -10 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 4W–9L | 31% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6W–6L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 6 of 12 games (50%), significantly stronger than Carolina Panthers's 4 from 13 (31%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Carolina Panthers | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.0pts | Avg Score | 36.8pts |
| 22.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | W13 W · W15 L · W16 W · W17 L · W18 L | 19.0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W14 W · W15 W · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W | 36.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Carolina Panthers | 31 – 34 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W13 | Carolina Panthers | 31 – 28 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2022 | W6 | Los Angeles Rams | 24 – 10 | Carolina Panthers |
| 2019 | W1 | Carolina Panthers | 27 – 30 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2016 | W9 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 – 13 | Carolina Panthers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bank of America Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carolina Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rico Dowdle | RB | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/8g | 33% | 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chuba Hubbard | RB | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 12/37g | 36% | — | 🏉 22' 46' |
| – | Jalen Coker | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 2/10g | 25% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Xavier Legette | WR | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bryce Young | QB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/21g | 16% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Mitchell Evans | TE | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Tommy Tremble | TE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/35g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brycen Tremayne | WR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Mitchell | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Horn Jr. | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Etienne | RB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 14 in 14g | 11/10g (0·0·3·2·1·1·2·2·0·0) | 3/5g | 3/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.83 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 13 in 17g | 8/10g (1·2·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.94 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.03 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 18' |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 8 in 14g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jarquez Hunter | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 56% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyren Williams — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Colby Parkinson — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Blake Corum — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Carolina Panthers** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Rico Dowdle 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Panthers: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Hubbard, B.Young, J.Coker

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Carolina Panthers 1393 · Los Angeles Rams 1658 · ELO difference: 265 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Carolina Panthers | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 55 | 82 | Los Angeles Rams +27 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 76 | Los Angeles Rams +26 |
| Backfield | 42 | 66 | Los Angeles Rams +24 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 66 | 52 | Carolina Panthers +14 |
| Special Teams | 56 | 76 | Los Angeles Rams +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Carolina Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-10 21:30 UTC (latest tip update)