# New England Patriots v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Super Bowl 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 13 – 29 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks ride the wave past New England Patriots._

Half time: 0 – 9 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 29% / Seattle Seahawks 71% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 09 Feb, 10:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: Mack Hollins (48'), Rhamondre Stevenson (58' Tipped ⚡) · Seattle Seahawks: AJ Barner (47'), Uchenna Nwosu (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 71% | Won |
| New England Patriots | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.3 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Super Bowl, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 9 Feb 2026, 10:30 am_

New England Patriots 13–29 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Zero. That's how many points New England Patriots had on the board through three quarters, and by the time they finally got off the mark the Seattle Seahawks were already up 18. Final score: Seahawks 29, Patriots 13, and that stretch of nothing is most of the explanation right there.

The scoreboard through the first three periods read 3, then 9, then 12, all Seattle. Then the roof caved in for New England properly in the fourth. AJ Barner's touchdown made it 18-0 with 13:29 left, Mack Hollins finally got the Patriots moving with 6 points a minute later, but Uchenna Nwosu answered straight back to push it to 28-7. Rhamondre Stevenson's score with 2:28 remaining was just tidying up a scoreline that had long since been decided.

Here's the strange part: New England actually won the yardage battle, 374 to 343. Drake Maye threw for 295 and Mack Hollins was the game's leading target with 4 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. None of it mattered much against three turnovers and a pass rush that got home six times to Seattle's one. You can move the ball all day, but not when you're handing it back and Sam Darnold's getting time to throw while Maye isn't.

That gap tells the real story: New England's offensive EPA was minus 20.7 for the game, Seattle's was minus 3.5. A 17.2-point efficiency edge snap for snap, and it's why 374 yards produced only 13 points while Seattle's more modest 343 produced 29. Yards without the ball or the protection to use them properly are just a number on a stat sheet.

Kenneth Walker III did the heavy lifting on the ground, 135 yards on 27 carries, and that backfield edge was flagged well before kick-off. Seattle came in rated 75 to New England's 58 at the position, and Walker made that gap look conservative. Add a receiving corps rated 61 to 56 and Seattle had the raw personnel advantage in the two spots that ended up mattering most.

New England's one clear edge on paper was the secondary, 72 to 59, and it did its job in isolation, holding Darnold to 202 yards on 19 of 38. Problem was, none of it counted for much once the Patriots stopped getting the ball back in decent field position and stopped protecting Maye. Three interceptions thrown and six sacks conceded will bury a good yardage day every time.

Both sides came in off five straight wins, but Seattle's form carried more scoring punch, 30 points a game average against New England's 9.2 conceded, and that gap showed up here even if the final margin wasn't quite as lopsided as those raw numbers might suggest.

Alphr's model had Seattle favourites at 71 percent and predicted a margin of 8.3 on a projected 49-point total. The final gap came in at 16, wider than tipped but the right side of the ledger. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one leaned the right way.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 29 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| **374** | Total Yards | 343 |
| **295** | Passing Yards | 202 |
| 79 | Rushing Yards | **141** |
| 30 | First Downs | **31** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **6** |
| -20.7 | Offensive EPA | **-3.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 71% probability. The predicted margin of 8.3 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 6 points below Shawn Smith's career average of 48. Seattle Seahawks's victory aligns with Shawn Smith's historical trend, Seattle Seahawks have a 60% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.42 (edge +0.2%) — model probability 70.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 8 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 71% to see off New England Patriots. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 76 ELO points clear, 1734 to 1659.

On paper New England Patriots shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Pass Rush and Secondary. The model still sides with Seattle Seahawks, which says Team Rating (ELO) carry the most weight. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 8.3, with the two sides combining for about 49. Seattle Seahawks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Seattle Seahawks have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 29-13 in 2025 the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, New England Patriots $2.95 and Seattle Seahawks $1.42, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -4.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | New England Patriots 3 · Seattle Seahawks 5 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 29-13 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Mike Macdonald |
| Market | New England Patriots $2.95 · Seattle Seahawks $1.42 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -4.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 4W–4L | 50% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6W–4L | 60% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Seattle Seahawks hold a 10-point edge: 6W–4L (60%) vs New England Patriots's 4W–4L (50%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 30.0pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.6pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Margin | 13.4pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W17 W · W18 W · WC W · DIV W · CONF W | 26.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · DIV W · CONF W | 30.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | SB | New England Patriots | 13 – 29 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W2 | New England Patriots | 20 – 23 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2020 | W2 | Seattle Seahawks | 35 – 30 | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | W10 | New England Patriots | 24 – 31 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2014 | CONF | Seattle Seahawks | 24 – 28 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 10 in 20g | 7/10g (3·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 9 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·3·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 8 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 7 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.20 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 12 in 19g | 7/10g (0·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.03 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 9 in 19g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.62 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.25 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 7 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 27% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 1/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bobo | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: A.Barner, U.Nwosu

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 46% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Drake Maye 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Hollins

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1659 · Seattle Seahawks 1734 · ELO difference: 75 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 57 | 53 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 61 | Seattle Seahawks +5 |
| Backfield | 58 | 75 | Seattle Seahawks +17 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 72 | 59 | New England Patriots +13 |
| Special Teams | 55 | 61 | Seattle Seahawks +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New England Patriots |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-08 23:30 UTC (latest tip update)