# Washington Commanders v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Washington Commanders 14 – 38 Seattle Seahawks

_Seattle Seahawks run riot over Washington Commanders._

Half time: 7 – 31 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Washington Commanders 11% / Seattle Seahawks 89% · FedExField · Mon, 03 Nov, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (30'), Rodriguez (53') · Seattle Seahawks: Tory Horton (12'), Tory Horton (22'), Elijah Arroyo (22'), Cody White (26'), AJ Barner (44')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 89% | Won |
| Washington Commanders | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.5 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Nov 2025, 12:20 pm_

Washington Commanders 14–38 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 9 at FedExField. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Four sacks to none. That's the number that explains how Seattle Seahawks walked out of FedExField with a 38-14 win over Washington Commanders, a defence that got to the quarterback four times while conceding nothing had already decided the game up front before the scoreboard caught up.

The scoreboard did catch up, and quickly. Tory Horton opened the scoring with 3:09 left in the first, and Seattle led 7-0 at the quarter's end. He struck again with 8:57 to go in the second, then Elijah Arroyo and Cody White piled on inside the same quarter, Arroyo's coming just eleven seconds after Horton's second and White's with 4:44 left. By half-time it was 31-7. Washington's only response before the break was a Jayden Daniels touchdown with 56 seconds left in the half.

The third quarter added one more Seattle score, AJ Barner going over with 1:55 remaining to make it 38-7, and that's where it stayed until the fourth. Chris Rodriguez Jr. got Washington to 38-14 with 7:17 left in the game, and the final score held from there.

The yardage tells the same story from a different angle. Seattle out-gained Washington 418 to 310, and did it mostly through the air. Sam Darnold went 21-of-24 for 330 yards and four touchdowns, with one interception. Jaxon Smith-Njigba did the heavy lifting on the receiving end, 8 catches for 129 yards, the kind of workload you get when your quarterback is seeing the field clearly all day.

Washington actually won the ground game, 157 rushing yards to 88, with Chris Rodriguez Jr. leading all rushers on 12 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown. Problem is, that only made up 38 per cent of their total offensive output. Jayden Daniels was tidy enough himself, 16-of-22 for 153 yards and one touchdown, but he also threw a pick, matching Darnold's turnover for turnover. The real gap wasn't in who protected the footy. It was in who could actually move it. Seattle's offensive EPA of 21.5 against Washington's minus 1.2 says that plainly: snap for snap, this wasn't close.

None of it should shock anyone who looked at the numbers going in. Seattle arrived on a four-from-five run, averaging 29.8 points a game and conceding just 20.4, against a Washington side that had won once in five and was leaking 28.2 a game. Seattle also had the rest advantage, 13 days to Washington's 6. The quarterback and receiving corps gaps, 70 to 54 and 67 to 49, showed up exactly where you'd expect, through the air, where Darnold and Smith-Njigba did most of their damage. Washington's edge in the backfield rating, 48 to 42, tracked too: it's why they out-rushed Seattle on the day even while losing everywhere else.

Alphr's model had Seattle favoured by 3.5 points at 89 per cent to win, and got the winner right without much sweat. The margin was the miss, a 24-point gap where 3.5 was forecast, though the total of 52 points landed close to the projected 48. Call it a strong pick with a rough edge on the details.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 310 | Total Yards | **418** |
| 153 | Passing Yards | **330** |
| **157** | Rushing Yards | 88 |
| 25 | First Downs | **31** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -1.2 | Offensive EPA | **21.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 52, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 7 points above Bill Vinovich's career average of 45. Seattle Seahawks's victory aligns with Bill Vinovich's historical trend, Seattle Seahawks have a 78% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.68 (edge +29.6%) — model probability 89.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 4 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 89% to see off Washington Commanders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 79 ELO points clear, 1588 to 1509. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Washington Commanders.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 3.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Seattle Seahawks to win, not to win big.

Seattle Seahawks have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 38-14 in 2025 Week 9.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Jayden Daniels starts under centre for Washington Commanders, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Dan Quinn and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

Seattle Seahawks come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Washington Commanders $2.24 and Seattle Seahawks $1.68, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -2.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Washington Commanders 5 · Seattle Seahawks 7 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 38-14 (2025) |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 home |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jayden Daniels · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Dan Quinn · Mike Macdonald |
| Rest | Washington Commanders 6d · Seattle Seahawks 13d |
| Market | Washington Commanders $2.24 · Seattle Seahawks $1.68 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -2.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Seattle Seahawks

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 6W–12L | 33% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14W–4L | 78% |

Avg total: 44.8 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Bill Vinovich officiates, Seattle Seahawks have won 14 of 18 games (78%), significantly stronger than Washington Commanders's 6 from 18 (33%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.4pts | Avg Score | 29.8pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -6.8pts | Avg Margin | 9.4pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 13.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | W4 L · W5 W · W6 L · W7 L · W8 L | 21.4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W3 W · W4 W · W5 L · W6 W · W7 W | 29.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W9 | Washington Commanders | 14 – 38 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2023 | W10 | Seattle Seahawks | 29 – 26 | Washington Commanders |
| 2021 | W12 | Washington Commanders | 17 – 15 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2020 | W15 | Washington Commanders | 15 – 20 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2017 | W9 | Seattle Seahawks | 14 – 17 | Washington Commanders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FedExField. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/9g | 2/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/9g | 9/18g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Luke McCaffrey | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Daniels | QB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/11g | 26% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 16% | — | — |
| – | John Bates | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/25g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Treylon Burks | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | 🏉 12' 22' |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Robbie Ouzts | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Horton, E.Arroyo, C.White, A.Barner

**Washington Commanders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel Sr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Ertz — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Daniels, C.Rodriguez

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Washington Commanders 1509 · Seattle Seahawks 1588 · ELO difference: 79 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Washington Commanders | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 54 | 70 | Seattle Seahawks +16 |
| Receiving Corps | 49 | 67 | Seattle Seahawks +18 |
| Backfield | 48 | 42 | Washington Commanders +6 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 59 | Even |
| Secondary | 57 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 66 | 65 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Seattle Seahawks |

**Model Confidence: 89%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r9-washington-commanders-v-seattle-seahawks
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-11-03 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)