# Tennessee Titans v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Week 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tennessee Titans 20 – 27 Los Angeles Chargers

_Los Angeles Chargers survive a scare against Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 17 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tennessee Titans 12% / Los Angeles Chargers 88% · Nissan Stadium · Mon, 03 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tennessee Titans: Cody Barton (4'), Chimere Dike (12') · Los Angeles Chargers: Scott Matlock (8'), Quentin Johnston (22' Tipped ⚡), Justin Herbert (47')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 88% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 12% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Tennessee Titans 20–27 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 9 at Nissan Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Quentin Johnston's touchdown with 8:41 left in the second quarter did more than put Los Angeles Chargers back in front. It flipped a game Tennessee had led twice in the first quarter and handed the Chargers a lead they would not give up again. Tennessee led 13-7 after Chimere Dike's score with 3:13 left in the first, and led 14-7 at the change of quarters. But Johnston's touchdown made it 16-14, and from that moment the Chargers controlled the contest all the way to a 27-20 win at Nissan Stadium.

The scoreline undersells how one-sided the second half of the story was, even if the final margin was just seven points. Tennessee opened well, with C. Barton scoring first to make it 6-0 and Dike adding the Titans' only touchdown of the night to push them 13-7 up late in the first term. That was as good as it got for the home side. Los Angeles answered through S. Matlock before the first quarter even ended, then Johnston's second-quarter score put them ahead for good. By half-time it was 20-17, and neither team scored in the third quarter. Justin Herbert put the result out of reach with 13:02 left in the fourth, making it 26-17 before Tennessee's late field goal made the final scoreline look closer than the game actually was.

The numbers back up how comfortably Los Angeles played once they had the lead. They outgained Tennessee 381 yards to 233, with 250 of that through the air against 145 for the Titans, and 131 on the ground to Tennessee's 88. First downs told the same story: 32 to 17. Los Angeles also won the efficiency battle by a wide margin, finishing at +3.5 offensive EPA to Tennessee's minus 7.8, an 11.3-point gap snap for snap.

Tennessee's pass rush was arguably their best asset on the night, getting home six times compared to four sacks for Los Angeles. But it wasn't enough to offset the one turnover Los Angeles coughed up, or the gulf in total production. Justin Herbert finished 19-of-29 for 250 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, and also led all rushers with 57 yards on nine carries and a touchdown of his own. Cam Ward was serviceable for Tennessee, going 12-of-21 for 145 yards, but he didn't have the weapons or the protection to keep pace. Oronde Gadsden II was the game's leading receiver regardless of side, hauling in five catches for 68 yards.

None of this will surprise anyone who looked at the numbers beforehand. Los Angeles came in rated stronger at every position group, most notably at quarterback, 59 to 23, and in special teams, 68 to 52. Their recent form was better too: two wins in their last five compared to one for Tennessee, and an average scoring margin of minus 1 against Tennessee's minus 15.4.

Alphr's model had this one right well before kickoff, giving Los Angeles an 88% chance of victory and picking them to win by 6.4 points. The final margin came in at 7. The model's combined total of 41 points was a little conservative next to the actual 47, but within six points, it did its job. Tennessee had their moments early, but this was a Chargers win from the second quarter onward, and the stat sheet confirms it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 233 | Total Yards | **381** |
| 145 | Passing Yards | **250** |
| 88 | Rushing Yards | **131** |
| 17 | First Downs | **32** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 4 |
| -7.8 | Offensive EPA | **3.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Chargers to win at 88% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Chargers by 6.4 vs the actual margin of 7 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 47, within 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Los Angeles Chargers's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, Los Angeles Chargers have a 67% win rate under this referee. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Los Angeles Chargers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.15 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 88.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +10 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 6 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Chargers here: 88% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Chargers sit 258 ELO points clear, 1533 to 1276. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Tennessee Titans.

Los Angeles Chargers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 6.4, with the two sides combining for about 41. Los Angeles Chargers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Chargers took the most recent meeting 27-20 in 2025 Week 9.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-8 at home, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Cam Ward starts under centre for Tennessee Titans, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Brian Callahan and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

Los Angeles Chargers come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Tennessee Titans $5.70 and Los Angeles Chargers $1.15, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -10 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tennessee Titans 3 · Los Angeles Chargers 9 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 27-20 (2025) |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-8 home |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Cam Ward · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Brian Callahan · Jim Harbaugh |
| Rest | Tennessee Titans 7d · Los Angeles Chargers 10d |
| Market | Tennessee Titans $5.70 · Los Angeles Chargers $1.15 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -10 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Chargers

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 4W–3L | 57% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4W–2L | 67% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Los Angeles Chargers hold a 10-point edge: 4W–2L (67%) vs Tennessee Titans's 4W–3L (57%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Los Angeles Chargers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 11.8pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.6pts |
| -15.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | W4 L · W5 W · W6 L · W7 L · W8 L | 11.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W4 L · W5 L · W6 W · W7 L · W8 W | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W9 | Tennessee Titans | 20 – 27 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2024 | W10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 27 – 17 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2023 | W2 | Tennessee Titans | 27 – 24 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2022 | W15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 17 – 14 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2019 | W7 | Tennessee Titans | 23 – 20 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Nissan Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 13% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/15g | 21% | 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/25g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Kinsey | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 2/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.63 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jaret Patterson | RB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tucker Fisk | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Keenan Allen 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Oronde Gadsden II — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: S.Matlock, J.Herbert

**Tennessee Titans** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Barton, C.Dike

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tennessee Titans 1276 · Los Angeles Chargers 1533 · ELO difference: 257 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tennessee Titans | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 23 | 59 | Los Angeles Chargers +36 |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 61 | Los Angeles Chargers +13 |
| Backfield | 49 | 57 | Los Angeles Chargers +8 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 59 | Los Angeles Chargers +6 |
| Secondary | 44 | 55 | Los Angeles Chargers +11 |
| Special Teams | 52 | 68 | Los Angeles Chargers +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |

**Model Confidence: 88%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-02 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)