# Pittsburgh Steelers v Indianapolis Colts — NFL Week 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – 20 Indianapolis Colts

_Pittsburgh Steelers steamroll a gallant Indianapolis Colts._

Half time: 17 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 52% / Indianapolis Colts 48% · Acrisure Stadium · Mon, 03 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren (24' Tipped ⚡), Pat Freiermuth (26'), Jaylen Warren (46' Tipped ⚡) · Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones (7'), Josh Downs (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 52% | Won |
| Indianapolis Colts | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.6 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Pittsburgh Steelers 27–20 Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 9 at Acrisure Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Indianapolis had the ball moving all night and precious little to show for it. Daniel Jones opened the scoring with 8:07 left in the first, a touchdown that had the Colts up 7-0 and looking like the form side their 4-1 recent run suggested they'd be. It was the last time all evening they'd lead.

Pittsburgh answered in the second quarter with Jaylen Warren punching one in to make it 6-7, then Pat Freiermuth following four minutes later to put the Steelers up 13-7. By half-time it was 17-7, and the gap that mattered most wasn't on the scoreboard, it was in the turnover column, where Pittsburgh had a clean sheet and Indianapolis already had problems building.

The third quarter went quiet, nothing added either side, and that stillness suited Pittsburgh fine. They were sitting on a 10-point buffer against a Colts side averaging 33.4 points a game across their last five. Then Warren struck again early in the fourth, 14:21 on the clock, extending it to 23-7 and turning a workable Colts deficit into something closer to a rescue mission.

Josh Downs got the Colts to 27-16 with 4:35 left, and the final score read 27-20, but the maths behind it tells you why it never threatened to unravel. Indianapolis piled up 397 total yards to Pittsburgh's 241, out-passed them 342 to 203, and still lost by seven. Five turnovers will do that. Daniel Jones finished 31-of-35 for the touchdown and the yardage, but three interceptions sitting alongside it undid every gain those numbers represented.

Aaron Rodgers, by contrast, needed only 25-of-35 for 203 yards and a touchdown, and Pittsburgh's offense ran 5.4 expected points better than Indianapolis's on a per-snap basis, -3.5 to -8.9. That's the story of a team that did less with the ball but did it without giving it away, against a team that moved the chains but kept handing possessions back.

Pittsburgh's pass rush also did its job, five sacks to three, and that shows up in the shape of the box score more than the highlight reel. Indianapolis came in with the better rated backfield on paper, 84 to 52, with Jonathan Taylor supposed to be the point of difference. He led all rushers, but only for 45 yards on 14 carries, nowhere near enough to lean on when the passing game kept finding trouble. Alec Pierce was the one bright spot through the air for Indianapolis, 6 catches for 115 yards, but one big target doesn't fix five turnovers.

The model had Indianapolis favoured by 3.6 points off the back of their form and the ratings gap, 1566 to 1509. Instead Pittsburgh won by seven, and Alphr's model, which gave the Steelers 52% before kickoff, had the right side of the ledger even if the margin ran the other way. Sometimes the stronger roster on paper is exactly the one that finds five ways to give the ball back.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 241 | Total Yards | **397** |
| 203 | Passing Yards | **342** |
| 38 | Rushing Yards | **55** |
| 25 | First Downs | **40** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 5 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| **-3.5** | Offensive EPA | -8.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Pittsburgh Steelers to win at 52% probability. The predicted margin of 3.6 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $2.54 (edge +12.2%) — model probability 51.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 4 · Predicted total: 56

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts. The model can't split them, landing on Pittsburgh Steelers at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: Indianapolis Colts sit 57 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1509, so the model is backing Pittsburgh Steelers against the ratings gap. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Pittsburgh Steelers.

On paper Indianapolis Colts shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The model still sides with Pittsburgh Steelers, which says Pass Rush carry the most weight. The margin model has Indianapolis Colts by 3.6, with the two sides combining for about 56. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Pittsburgh Steelers took the most recent meeting 27-20 in 2025 Week 9.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Aaron Rodgers starts under centre for Pittsburgh Steelers, Daniel Jones for Indianapolis Colts, with Mike Tomlin and Shane Steichen calling the shots.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Pittsburgh Steelers $2.54 and Indianapolis Colts $1.54, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -3.5 and the total at 51.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Pittsburgh Steelers 9 · Indianapolis Colts 3 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 27-20 (2025) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 6-3 home |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 2-6 away |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Aaron Rodgers · Daniel Jones |
| Head coaches | Mike Tomlin · Shane Steichen |
| Market | Pittsburgh Steelers $2.54 · Indianapolis Colts $1.54 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -3.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8W–5L | 62% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9W–5L | 64% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Craig Wrolstad, Pittsburgh Steelers 8W–5L (62%) and Indianapolis Colts 9W–5L (64%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 33.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 2.4pts | Avg Margin | 13.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W3 W · W4 W · W6 W · W7 L · W8 L | 24.8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | W4 L · W5 W · W6 W · W7 W · W8 W | 33.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 – 20 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2024 | W4 | Indianapolis Colts | 27 – 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2023 | W15 | Indianapolis Colts | 30 – 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2022 | W12 | Indianapolis Colts | 17 – 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2020 | W16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 28 – 24 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Acrisure Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/20g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/5g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 6/22g | 26% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/25g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/27g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 46' |
| – | Roman Wilson | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lew Nichols III | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Trey Sermon | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 14 in 8g | 17/10g (2·1·0·1·3·0·3·1·3·3) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.32 AI 62% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $3.80 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Indianapolis Colts** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 10 TDs in last 5 (9 rush · 1 pass) · model 62% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Pittman 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Alec Pierce — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Jones, J.Downs

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 39% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: P.Freiermuth

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Pittsburgh Steelers 1509 · Indianapolis Colts 1566 · ELO difference: 57 in favour of Indianapolis Colts

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 60 | 71 | Indianapolis Colts +11 |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 65 | Indianapolis Colts +8 |
| Backfield | 52 | 84 | Indianapolis Colts +32 |
| Pass Rush | 67 | 58 | Pittsburgh Steelers +9 |
| Secondary | 53 | 63 | Indianapolis Colts +10 |
| Special Teams | 68 | 57 | Pittsburgh Steelers +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Pittsburgh Steelers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 56 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-02 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)