# New York Giants v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Week 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Giants 24 – 34 San Francisco 49ers

_San Francisco 49ers stake a claim over New York Giants._

Half time: 7 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Giants 29% / San Francisco 49ers 71% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 03 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Giants: Theo Johnson (5'), Jaxson Dart (53' Tipped ⚡), Gunner Olszewski (59') · San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (11' Tipped ⚡), Jauan Jennings (17'), Brian Robinson (49'), Christian McCaffrey (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 71% | Won |
| New York Giants | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.0 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

New York Giants 24–34 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Week 9 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine points. That's the gap in offensive EPA, 9.5 for the Giants against 18.5 for San Francisco, and it lines up almost perfectly with how the scoreboard read at the end: 49ers 34, Giants 24, a ten-point win built on the 49ers doing more with the ball every time they had it.

The shootout look at the final whistle hides how each side actually built the game. San Francisco outgained New York 394 yards to 308, ran for 159 of those yards at essentially a run-first tempo, and did it while giving the ball away once to the Giants' zero. Efficiency plus ball security, that's the ledger, and it's why the 49ers were never truly under threat despite four different lead changes in the first half.

The scoring itself went back and forth early. Theo Johnson put the Giants up 6-0 inside the first quarter, only for Christian McCaffrey to answer and put San Francisco ahead 7-6 before the quarter was out. Jauan Jennings then broke it open in the second, 13-7, and the 49ers carried a 17-7 buffer into the break. New York never really got back level from there, trailing 20-10 through three quarters and then watching Brian Robinson stretch it to 26-10 early in the fourth.

New York had one last surge in them. Jaxson Dart's touchdown cut it to 16-27, and Gunner Olszewski's score with 1:27 left made it 23-34, but McCaffrey's second touchdown of the night, his sixth-straight big moment in this one, had already put the game out of reach at 33-17. Wins and misses, the Giants had both in that final stretch, just not enough of the former.

McCaffrey was the difference-maker by any measure: 106 yards on 28 carries, a touchdown on the ground, then five catches for 67 yards and another score through the air. That's 173 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns from one player, and it tracks with the pre-match read that had San Francisco's backfield rated at 61 against New York's 46, the single biggest positional gap on the sheet.

Dart didn't play badly, 24-of-33 for 191 yards and two touchdowns is a tidy line, but Mac Jones matched him ball for ball with fewer attempts, 19-of-24 for 235 and two scores of his own. When your quarterback needs nine more throws to gain 44 fewer yards, that's the passing battle in a sentence.

Alphr's model had San Francisco favoured at 71 percent with the ratings sitting at 1498 to New York's 1388, though it called the margin at a flat zero and the total at 55. The 49ers won by ten and the teams combined for 58, so the head start with a win probability was well earned, and the numbers landed close enough either side of the mark to call it a fair read. New York's own form line, 2-3 with a modest sub-plus scoring differential, gave little reason to expect anything different, and in the end the 49ers simply did the extra job with the ball that the stat sheet always pointed to.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Giants | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total Yards | **394** |
| 191 | Passing Yards | **235** |
| 117 | Rushing Yards | **159** |
| 24 | First Downs | **36** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| 9.5 | Offensive EPA | **18.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted San Francisco 49ers to win at 71% probability. The predicted margin of 0.0 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 55 was close to the actual 58, within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 12 points above John Hussey's career average of 46. San Francisco 49ers's victory aligns with John Hussey's historical trend, San Francisco 49ers have a 56% win rate under this referee. Despite John Hussey's 66% career home-team win rate, the away side San Francisco 49ers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.68 (edge +11.6%) — model probability 71.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 0 · Predicted total: 55

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on San Francisco 49ers here: 71% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: San Francisco 49ers sit 110 ELO points clear, 1498 to 1388.

On paper New York Giants shade it, ahead on 2 of 6 factors including Quarterback and Pass Rush. The model still sides with San Francisco 49ers, which says Team Rating (ELO) carry the most weight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back San Francisco 49ers to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, San Francisco 49ers taking the most recent 34-24 in 2025 Week 9.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Jaxson Dart starts under centre for New York Giants, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Brian Daboll and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, New York Giants $2.24 and San Francisco 49ers $1.68, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -2.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Giants 6 · San Francisco 49ers 6 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 34-24 (2025) |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 3-5 home |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jaxson Dart · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Brian Daboll · Kyle Shanahan |
| Market | New York Giants $2.24 · San Francisco 49ers $1.68 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours San Francisco 49ers

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 4W–6L | 40% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5W–4L | 56% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

When John Hussey officiates, San Francisco 49ers have won 5 of 9 games (56%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 4 from 10 (40%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Giants | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.2pts | Avg Score | 20.2pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.0pts |
| -2.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | W4 W · W5 L · W6 W · W7 L · W8 L | 24.2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W4 L · W5 W · W6 L · W7 W · W8 L | 20.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W9 | New York Giants | 24 – 34 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2023 | W3 | San Francisco 49ers | 30 – 12 | New York Giants |
| 2020 | W3 | New York Giants | 9 – 36 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2018 | W10 | San Francisco 49ers | 23 – 27 | New York Giants |
| 2017 | W10 | San Francisco 49ers | 31 – 21 | New York Giants |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 24% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/22g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/11g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 24% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 12/49g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/17g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 4% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Jalin Hyatt | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ray-Ray McCloud | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.48 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.70 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 56' |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Adrian Martinez | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 34% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Guerendo | RB | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Watkins | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 52% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- ⚡ George Kittle — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Kendrick Bourne — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Jennings, B.Robinson

**New York Giants** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaxson Dart 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 10 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Johnson, G.Olszewski

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Giants 1388 · San Francisco 49ers 1498 · ELO difference: 110 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 59 | 52 | New York Giants +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 55 | Even |
| Backfield | 46 | 61 | San Francisco 49ers +15 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 45 | New York Giants +8 |
| Secondary | 50 | 47 | Even |
| Special Teams | 62 | 71 | San Francisco 49ers +9 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Giants |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Giants |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — San Francisco 49ers favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 55 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-02 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)