# New England Patriots v Atlanta Falcons — NFL Week 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 24 – 23 Atlanta Falcons

_New England Patriots pip Atlanta Falcons by a point._

Half time: 21 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 78% / Atlanta Falcons 22% · Gillette Stadium · Mon, 03 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: DeMario Douglas (8'), Terrell Jennings (22'), Stefon Diggs (25' Tipped ⚡) · Atlanta Falcons: Drake London (15' Tipped ⚡), Drake London (30' Tipped ⚡), Drake London (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 78% | Won |
| Atlanta Falcons | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

New England Patriots 24–23 Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 9 at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England Patriots edged Atlanta Falcons 24-23 at Gillette Stadium, a one-score game to the end.

New England Patriots' touchdowns came through DeMario Douglas, Stefon Diggs and Terrell Jennings. Atlanta Falcons' touchdowns came through Drake London (3).

New England Patriots outgained Atlanta Falcons 369 yards to 292. New England Patriots lost the turnover battle 2 to 0, and it showed on the scoreboard. Atlanta Falcons's pass rush got home 6 times to 1. Through the air it was Drake Maye 19-of-29 for 259, 2 TDs, 1 pick against Michael Penix Jr. 22-of-37 for 221, 3 TDs. TreVeyon Henderson led all rushers with 55 yards on 14 carries. Drake London was the game's top target: 9 catches, 118 yards, 3 TDs.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| **369** | Total Yards | 292 |
| **259** | Passing Yards | 221 |
| **110** | Rushing Yards | 71 |
| **37** | First Downs | 29 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **6** |
| 0.9 | Offensive EPA | **3.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 78% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting New England Patriots by 4.5 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 47, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Brad Allen's career average of 45. New England Patriots's victory aligns with Brad Allen's historical trend, New England Patriots have a 58% win rate under this referee. New England Patriots's home victory fits Brad Allen's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.40 (edge +7.0%) — model probability 78.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New England Patriots here: 78% to see off Atlanta Falcons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New England Patriots sit 69 ELO points clear, 1494 to 1425. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Atlanta Falcons.

New England Patriots own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has New England Patriots by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back New England Patriots to win, not to win big.

New England Patriots have won 8 of the last 8 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 24-23 in 2025 Week 9.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 20.8 points for and 23.6 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Michael Penix Jr. for Atlanta Falcons, with Mike Vrabel and Raheem Morris calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New England Patriots $1.40 and Atlanta Falcons $3.05, with the spread at New England Patriots -5.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | New England Patriots 8 · Atlanta Falcons 0 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 24-23 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Atlanta Falcons 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 20.8 for · 23.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Michael Penix Jr. |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Raheem Morris |
| Market | New England Patriots $1.40 · Atlanta Falcons $3.05 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -5.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7W–5L | 58% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6W–6L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

New England Patriots hold a 8-point edge: 7W–5L (58%) vs Atlanta Falcons's 6W–6L (50%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.6pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.0pts |
| 15.0pts | Avg Margin | -9.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W4 W · W5 W · W6 W · W7 W · W8 W | 30.6 |
| Atlanta Falcons | W3 L · W4 W · W6 W · W7 L · W8 L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W9 | New England Patriots | 24 – 23 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2021 | W11 | Atlanta Falcons | 0 – 25 | New England Patriots |
| 2017 | W7 | New England Patriots | 23 – 7 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2016 | CONF | Atlanta Falcons | 28 – 34 | New England Patriots |
| 2013 | W4 | Atlanta Falcons | 23 – 30 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 14/36g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/17g | 17% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 8/10g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Westover | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Terrell Jennings | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 22' |

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 4 in 7g | 10/10g (2·2·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.83 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Drake London | WR | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 30' 56' |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | David Sills | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Feleipe Franks | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamal Agnew | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | KhaDarel Hodge | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Atlanta Falcons** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ Drake London 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q1, Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Tyler Allgeier 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Falcons: 1 TD across the team's last 5

**New England Patriots** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Hunter Henry — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Douglas, T.Jennings

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1494 · Atlanta Falcons 1425 · ELO difference: 69 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Atlanta Falcons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 78 | 42 | New England Patriots +36 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 54 | New England Patriots +7 |
| Backfield | 45 | 69 | Atlanta Falcons +24 |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 49 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 62 | 52 | New England Patriots +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-02 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)