# Miami Dolphins v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Miami Dolphins 6 – 28 Baltimore Ravens

_Baltimore Ravens run riot over Miami Dolphins._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Miami Dolphins 16% / Baltimore Ravens 84% · Hard Rock Stadium · Fri, 31 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Miami Dolphins: none · Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews (7' Tipped ⚡), Mark Andrews (16' Tipped ⚡), Charlie Kolar (37'), Rashod Bateman (41')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 84% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.9 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 31 Oct 2025, 11:15 am_

Miami Dolphins 6–28 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 9 at Hard Rock Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six minutes of the third quarter did the damage. Baltimore led 6-14 at the break, comfortable but not settled, and then Charlie Kolar scored with 8:14 left in the third and Rashod Bateman followed at the 4:22 mark. Two scores, four minutes apart, and the margin went from a workable eight points to a decisive 22. Miami never scored again. Neither did anyone need to ask why.

Final score: Baltimore Ravens 28, Miami Dolphins 6, at Hard Rock Stadium. Mark Andrews got the Ravens started with two touchdowns of his own, one in each of the first two quarters, and Kolar and Bateman finished the job in the third. Miami spent the whole night looking for the end zone and never found it.

The yardage says this should have been close. Baltimore had 354 total yards to Miami's 348, practically a coin flip. But 150 of the Ravens' yards came on the ground, 42% of their output, and that's the number that tells the real story. Miami's forward-facing units couldn't slow Derrick Henry, who ran 19 times for 119 yards, and every one of those carries chewed clock and field position Miami never got back.

Turnovers were the other half of it. Miami coughed the ball up three times, Baltimore none, and a three-turnover night against a team that doesn't need the extra possessions is how you lose by 22 despite outgaining nobody. Offensive EPA had Baltimore at plus 9.5 against Miami's minus 6.1, a swing of more than 15 points of expected value per snap. That gap is the whole game in one number.

Tua Tagovailoa was hardly poor, 25 of 40 for 261 yards, and Jaylen Waddle was Miami's best weapon with 6 catches for 82. But one interception mattered more than any of that, and Lamar Jackson simply had the better night by every measure that counts, 18 of 23 for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns, nothing wasted.

Miami came in with the better backfield rating, 57 to 48, and the better secondary, 53 to 48. Neither showed up. Baltimore's stronger arm, Jackson rated 69 to Tua's 52, and a receiving corps rated 54 to 42, proved the more reliable form line. Miami's recent stretch had them 2 and 1 with an even scoring margin, Baltimore had lost four of five coming in. Form lines can be misleading, and this was the proof.

Alphr's model had Baltimore favourites at 84% and expected them to win by 10.9, on a combined total near 52. The lopsided finish came in well clear of the projected margin, doubling it, while the total landed 18 points under. The pick held up. The manner of the beating didn't, and that's the bit no model claims to promise.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 348 | Total Yards | **354** |
| **261** | Passing Yards | 204 |
| 87 | Rushing Yards | **150** |
| 28 | First Downs | **29** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -6.1 | Offensive EPA | **9.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 84% probability. The predicted margin of 10.9 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. The game's 34 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 52. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 11 points below Scott Novak's career average of 45. Baltimore Ravens's victory aligns with Scott Novak's historical trend, Baltimore Ravens have a 83% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.22 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 83.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 11 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 84% to see off Miami Dolphins. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 100 ELO points clear, 1531 to 1431. Form leans Miami Dolphins' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Baltimore Ravens.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 10.9, with the two sides combining for about 52. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Baltimore Ravens have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 28-6 in 2025 Week 9.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Tua Tagovailoa starts under centre for Miami Dolphins, Lamar Jackson for Baltimore Ravens, with Mike McDaniel and John Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Miami Dolphins $4.50 and Baltimore Ravens $1.22, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -7.5 and the total at 51.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Miami Dolphins 3 · Baltimore Ravens 9 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 28-6 (2025) |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 5-4 home |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tua Tagovailoa · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Mike McDaniel · John Harbaugh |
| Market | Miami Dolphins $4.50 · Baltimore Ravens $1.22 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -7.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 5W–1L | 83% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, Baltimore Ravens have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Miami Dolphins's 3 from 7 (43%). Small sample (6 games for Baltimore Ravens).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 18.6pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 30.4pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | -11.8pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | W4 W · W5 L · W6 L · W7 L · W8 W | 23.6 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W8 W | 18.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W9 | Miami Dolphins | 6 – 28 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2023 | W17 | Baltimore Ravens | 56 – 19 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2022 | W2 | Baltimore Ravens | 38 – 42 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2021 | W10 | Miami Dolphins | 22 – 10 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2019 | W1 | Miami Dolphins | 10 – 59 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hard Rock Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 18/18g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.73 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 10/33g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dee Eskridge | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Washington | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tanner Conner | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/38g | 0% | — | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 6 in 7g | 11/10g (2·2·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/4g | 2/4g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.41 AI 57% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 2/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 16' |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 57% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Lamar Jackson — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Kolar, R.Bateman

**Miami Dolphins** (2 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 2 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Miami Dolphins 1431 · Baltimore Ravens 1531 · ELO difference: 100 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Miami Dolphins | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 52 | 69 | Baltimore Ravens +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 42 | 54 | Baltimore Ravens +12 |
| Backfield | 57 | 48 | Miami Dolphins +9 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 49 | Even |
| Secondary | 53 | 48 | Miami Dolphins +5 |
| Special Teams | 63 | 58 | Miami Dolphins +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-31 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)