# Los Angeles Rams v New Orleans Saints — NFL Week 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Rams 34 – 10 New Orleans Saints

_Los Angeles Rams put New Orleans Saints to the sword._

Half time: 20 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Rams 99% / New Orleans Saints 1% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 03 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Rams: Tyler Higbee (9' Tipped ⚡), Davante Adams (19' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (24' Tipped ⚡), Davante Adams (40' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (48' Tipped ⚡) · New Orleans Saints: Juwan Johnson (30')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 99% | Won |
| New Orleans Saints | 1% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.4 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Nov 2025, 08:05 am_

Los Angeles Rams 34–10 New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 9 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Los Angeles Rams winning at 99% probability, expected to cover by 15.4 with a combined total near 50. The Rams won by 24, 34-10. The lean was right, the margin was conservative, and the total landed close enough, 44 against a predicted 50. Sometimes the model undersells a beating.

The shape of the match backs up why the number was so lopsided before kick-off. Rams quarterback rated 66 to the Saints' 29, receiving corps 65 to 52, pass rush 69 to 53. Every positional line favoured Los Angeles, and the form column told the same story: three wins from five for the Rams against one for New Orleans, who arrived on a four-game skid. Fourteen days of rest against seven didn't hurt either.

Tyler Higbee opened the scoring with 6:22 left in the first quarter, and the Rams never trailed from there. By the 11:31 mark of the second, Davante Adams had it 13-0. Puku Nacua made it 19-0 with just over six minutes left in the half, and Juwan Johnson's touchdown for New Orleans came with 13 seconds on the clock, more a matter of pride than momentum. Los Angeles led 20-10 at the break, already in control despite the Saints briefly closing to single digits.

New Orleans never got closer. Davante Adams' second touchdown, early in the third, pushed it to 26-10, and Kyren Williams put it out of reach with 12:43 left in the fourth, 33-10. The Saints spent the whole second half chasing a lead that had already got away from them at the half.

The stat sheet reads like a team that controlled every phase. Los Angeles ran up 452 total yards to New Orleans' 233, nearly double. The rushing split was 171 to 57, with Kyren Williams alone gaining 114 on 25 carries and a touchdown, more than double the Saints' entire ground game. Matthew Stafford went 24-of-32 for 281 yards and four touchdowns, clean and unhurried behind a Rams pack that offered up the bigger forward advantage on paper. Puka Nacua was his main man, seven catches for 95 yards and a score.

Tyler Shough had a harder night for New Orleans, 15-of-24 for 176 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Two turnovers for the Saints against none for the Rams is the kind of gap that turns a loss into a rout, and the expected points numbers back it up: Los Angeles at plus-16.3, New Orleans at minus-12.7, a 29-point efficiency swing that lines up neatly with what ended up on the board.

So the model's instinct was sound on every count that mattered: heavy favourite, comfortable cover, total in the right neighbourhood. The only miss was in degree, picking a 15-point margin for a game that turned into 24. Given the gap in form, rest and roster strength walking in, that's a fair complaint to have.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| **452** | Total Yards | 233 |
| **281** | Passing Yards | 176 |
| **171** | Rushing Yards | 57 |
| **41** | First Downs | 17 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| **16.3** | Offensive EPA | -12.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 99% probability. The predicted margin of 15.4 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 44, within 6 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Shawn Smith's career average of 47. Los Angeles Rams bucked the trend, New Orleans Saints historically win 75% of games under Shawn Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.08 (edge +6.5%) — model probability 98.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints +14 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 15 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Rams here: 99% to see off New Orleans Saints. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 278 ELO points clear, 1614 to 1336. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for New Orleans Saints.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 6 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 15.4, with the two sides combining for about 50. Los Angeles Rams to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Los Angeles Rams have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 34-10 in 2025 Week 9.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-1 at home, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Matthew Stafford starts under centre for Los Angeles Rams, Tyler Shough for New Orleans Saints, with Sean McVay and Kellen Moore calling the shots.

Los Angeles Rams come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Los Angeles Rams $1.08 and New Orleans Saints $8.50, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -14 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Rams 8 · New Orleans Saints 4 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 34-10 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 away |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Tyler Shough |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · Kellen Moore |
| Rest | Los Angeles Rams 14d · New Orleans Saints 7d |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.08 · New Orleans Saints $8.50 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -14 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 7W–4L | 64% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3W–1L | 75% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

New Orleans Saints hold a 11-point edge: 3W–1L (75%) vs Los Angeles Rams's 7W–4L (64%). Small sample (4 games for New Orleans Saints).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Conceded | 23.8pts |
| 7.8pts | Avg Margin | -7.6pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | W3 L · W4 W · W5 L · W6 W · W7 W | 25.6 |
| New Orleans Saints | W4 L · W5 W · W6 L · W7 L · W8 L | 16.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W9 | Los Angeles Rams | 34 – 10 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2024 | W13 | New Orleans Saints | 14 – 21 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2023 | W16 | Los Angeles Rams | 30 – 22 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2022 | W11 | New Orleans Saints | 27 – 20 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2019 | W2 | Los Angeles Rams | 27 – 9 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·3) | 0/3g | 2/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' 40' |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 2/3g | 20/22g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.64 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.40 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 8/16g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.85 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.60 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 7/38g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.30 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Taysom Hill | TE | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·3·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Devin Neal | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New Orleans Saints** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Olave — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Johnson

**Los Angeles Rams** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 49% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 45% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Tyler Higbee — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Rams: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1614 · New Orleans Saints 1336 · ELO difference: 278 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | New Orleans Saints | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 66 | 29 | Los Angeles Rams +37 |
| Receiving Corps | 65 | 52 | Los Angeles Rams +13 |
| Backfield | 55 | 38 | Los Angeles Rams +17 |
| Pass Rush | 69 | 53 | Los Angeles Rams +16 |
| Secondary | 66 | 56 | Los Angeles Rams +10 |
| Special Teams | 63 | 56 | Los Angeles Rams +7 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Los Angeles Rams |

**Model Confidence: 99%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 15 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-02 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)