# Las Vegas Raiders v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 29 – 30 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Jacksonville Jaguars surge back to pounce on Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 6 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 40% / Jacksonville Jaguars 60% · Allegiant Stadium · Mon, 03 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers (30' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Jeanty (51' Tipped ⚡), Brock Bowers (58' Tipped ⚡), Brock Bowers (60' Tipped ⚡) · Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (46'), Bhayshul Tuten (56'), Trevor Lawrence (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 60% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.2 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 9, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 Nov 2025, 08:05 am_

Las Vegas Raiders 29–30 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 9 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six points to three at the break, and neither side had done much to suggest a shootout was coming. Bowers had got the Raiders on the board with 39 seconds left in the second quarter, Jacksonville had chipped in a field goal, and that was the entire story of the first half at Allegiant Stadium.

The third quarter didn't change the picture much either. Las Vegas nudged it out to 9-6 by the end of it, still a low-scoring arm wrestle, still nothing like the finish that was coming. Then the fourth quarter arrived and both offences remembered how to score, fast.

Trevor Lawrence hit back for Jacksonville with 14:55 left, a touchdown that put the Jaguars in front 12-9. Ashton Jeanty answered for the Raiders with 9:45 to go, Las Vegas back up 15-13. Bhayshul Tuten restored Jacksonville's lead at the 4:10 mark, 19-16. Then, with two minutes left, Brock Bowers scored again to push Las Vegas ahead 22-20. Regulation ended locked at 23-23, both sides having traded the lead four times in the space of about eleven minutes.

Overtime needed two more scores to settle it. Lawrence found the end zone again to put Jacksonville up 29-23, and Bowers answered right back for his third touchdown of the night, but the Raiders came up a point short. Jacksonville won it 30-29.

Bowers finished as the best player on the ground by some margin: 12 catches for 127 yards and three touchdowns, the kind of night that papers over a lot of other problems. Ashton Jeanty's touchdown was the only other Las Vegas major. On the other side, Lawrence's two scores and Tuten's one did the damage for Jacksonville.

The yardage battle was close, 371 for Jacksonville to 341 for Las Vegas, but how they got there tells the real difference. Jacksonville leaned on the run: 151 rushing yards, 41 per cent of its total offence, with Travis Etienne grinding out 84 yards on 22 carries. Las Vegas barely ran the ball at all by comparison, just 57 yards on the ground, and instead let it fly. Geno Smith went 29-of-39 for 284 yards and four touchdowns, though he threw a pick too. Lawrence was tidier without being spectacular, 23-of-34 for 220 yards, also with one interception.

First downs actually favoured Las Vegas, 39 to 33, and both teams turned it over once each, so there's no obvious smoking gun in the raw numbers. Jacksonville got two sacks to the Raiders' one, and their offensive EPA of 12.1 comfortably beat Las Vegas' 8.5, which lines up with a team that found the extra gear when it mattered in the fourth and in overtime.

Alphr's model had Jacksonville as an 8.2-point favourite heading in, on the back of a stronger quarterback rating and a much better recent run of form (three wins in five, against just one for Las Vegas). That pick was right, though barely, with the Jaguars winning by a single point instead of eight. What nobody's model saw coming was the total. Forty-three points was the projection. Fifty-nine actually went up on the board, seventeen more than expected, and just about all of it came after half-time.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 0 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 29 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Total Yards | **371** |
| **284** | Passing Yards | 220 |
| 57 | Rushing Yards | **151** |
| **39** | First Downs | 33 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| 8.5 | Offensive EPA | **12.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Jacksonville Jaguars to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 8.2 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 59 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 59 points was 15 points above Alan Eck's career average of 44. Jacksonville Jaguars bucked the trend, Las Vegas Raiders historically win 50% of games under Alan Eck, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Alan Eck's 69% career home-team win rate, the away side Jacksonville Jaguars prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.77 (edge +3.9%) — model probability 60.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Jacksonville Jaguars are the call at 60%, but Las Vegas Raiders stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Jacksonville Jaguars sit 66 ELO points clear, 1443 to 1378. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Jacksonville Jaguars own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 8.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Jacksonville Jaguars, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 30-29 in 2025 Week 9.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with Pete Carroll and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $2.10 and Jacksonville Jaguars $1.77, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Las Vegas Raiders 4 · Jacksonville Jaguars 6 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 30-29 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 6-2 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Liam Coen |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $2.10 · Jacksonville Jaguars $1.77 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Las Vegas Raiders

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2W–2L | 50% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1W–2L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.5 pts · Home win %: 69% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alan Eck officiates, Las Vegas Raiders have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars's 1 from 3 (33%). Home teams win 69% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Jacksonville Jaguars).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 14.8pts | Avg Score | 18.6pts |
| 29.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -14.6pts | Avg Margin | -4.2pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 W · W7 L | 14.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W3 W · W4 W · W5 W · W6 L · W7 L | 18.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Jacksonville Jaguars lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W9 | Las Vegas Raiders | 29 – 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2024 | W16 | Las Vegas Raiders | 19 – 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2022 | W9 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 27 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2019 | W15 | Las Vegas Raiders | 16 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2016 | W7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 16 – 33 | Las Vegas Raiders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (1·0·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/3g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.89 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/19g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' 58' 60' |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 10/20g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hunter Long | TE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 46' 57' |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Austin Trammell | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Jones | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Thomas Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Lawrence, B.Tuten

**Las Vegas Raiders** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 51% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Brock Bowers — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2, Q4, Q5**
- ⚡ Tre Tucker — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 1 TD across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1378 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1443 · ELO difference: 66 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 39 | 43 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 48 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 48 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |
| Secondary | 49 | 51 | Even |
| Special Teams | 52 | 47 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-02 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)