# Philadelphia Eagles v New York Giants — NFL Week 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Philadelphia Eagles 38 – 20 New York Giants

_Philadelphia Eagles soar past New York Giants._

Half time: 21 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 85% / New York Giants 15% · Lincoln Financial Field · Mon, 27 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley (1' Tipped ⚡), Saquon Barkley (19' Tipped ⚡), Dallas Goedert (30' Tipped ⚡), Dallas Goedert (49' Tipped ⚡), Jahan Dotson (54') · New York Giants: Cam Skattebo (12' Tipped ⚡), Jaxson Dart (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 85% | Won |
| New York Giants | 15% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.1 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 8, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 27 Oct 2025, 04:00 am_

Philadelphia Eagles 38–20 New York Giants in NFL Week 8 at Lincoln Financial Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cam Skattebo got the Giants level early, a touchdown with 3:01 left in the first that pulled New York within one after Saquon Barkley had opened the scoring for Philadelphia. At 7-7 through one quarter, this looked like a contest. It did not stay that way.

Jaxson Dart actually threw for more than Jalen Hurts on the day, 193 yards to 179, and did it on 24 attempts to Hurts' 20. The problem was what came with it: one touchdown pass against four, and a Giants backfield that managed only 68 rushing yards all game. New York's receiving corps and quarterback ratings (56 and 55 coming in) were never going to be the issue. It was the 52-to-40 backfield edge on paper that flipped completely on the field, Philadelphia running for 276 yards while the Giants could barely find 68.

That imbalance showed up everywhere else too. Philadelphia piled up 455 total yards to New York's 261, and 32 first downs to 22. The Giants' pass rush actually did its job, four sacks on the day, but four sacks doesn't matter much when the other side is running through you for 276 yards and posting an offensive EPA of 21 against your 4.4. That's not a close game statistically. That's a gap.

New York did have a shot at hanging around. Skattebo's score made it 7-7 after one, and even at 21-10 at the break, an 11-point deficit with a defence that had a special teams unit rated well above Philadelphia's (63 to 50) wasn't dead and buried. But Philadelphia kept adding, 24-13 through three quarters, then Dallas Goedert's second touchdown of the night and a Jahan Dotson score inside the last 12 minutes turned it into a rout, 37-13 before New York even got its second touchdown of the game through Dart with 2:49 left.

For Philadelphia, the story was Saquon Barkley against his old side: 150 yards on just 14 carries and a touchdown, part of a rushing effort that made up 61% of the Eagles' total offence. Hurts didn't need volume, 15-of-20 for 179 yards and four touchdowns spread across Goedert (2), Barkley (2) and Dotson. DeVonta Smith led all receivers with 6 catches for 84 yards. Add it up and Philadelphia's offence ran at plus-16.6 expected points over New York's for the game, which is about as clean a explanation for a 38-20 scoreline as you'll get.

Alphr's model had Philadelphia at 85% to win, ratings of 1660 to New York's 1395, and it called the winner without much fuss. Where it fell down was the margin, pegging Philadelphia by 3.1 points on a combined total of 46. The Eagles won by 18, and the final score alone read 38-20, comfortably clear of any modest single-digit prediction. Philadelphia's edges in the passing game and pass rush on paper were real but modest. What actually decided it was the ground game nobody rated them for going in, and New York simply had no answer for it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 38 |
| New York Giants | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **455** | Total Yards | 261 |
| 179 | Passing Yards | **193** |
| **276** | Rushing Yards | 68 |
| **32** | First Downs | 22 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 4 |
| **21** | Offensive EPA | 4.4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Philadelphia Eagles to win at 85% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.1 but the actual margin was 18 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 12 points above Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Philadelphia Eagles's victory aligns with Brad Rogers's historical trend, Philadelphia Eagles have a 50% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.26 (edge +5.7%) — model probability 84.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Philadelphia Eagles here: 85% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Philadelphia Eagles sit 265 ELO points clear, 1660 to 1395. Form leans Philadelphia Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for New York Giants.

Philadelphia Eagles own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 3.1, with the two sides combining for about 46. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Philadelphia Eagles to win, not to win big.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Philadelphia Eagles took the most recent meeting 38-20 in 2025 Week 8.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 1-8 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Jalen Hurts starts under centre for Philadelphia Eagles, Jaxson Dart for New York Giants, with Nick Sirianni and Brian Daboll calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Philadelphia Eagles $1.26 and New York Giants $4.00, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -7 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Philadelphia Eagles 8 · New York Giants 4 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 38-20 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 1-8 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jalen Hurts · Jaxson Dart |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · Brian Daboll |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $1.26 · New York Giants $4.00 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -7 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2W–2L | 50% |
| New York Giants | 1W–5L | 17% |

Avg total: 45.7 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Philadelphia Eagles have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 1 from 6 (17%). Small sample (4 games for Philadelphia Eagles).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | W3 W · W4 W · W5 L · W6 L · W7 W | 25.2 |
| New York Giants | W3 L · W4 W · W5 L · W6 W · W7 L | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 38 – 20 | New York Giants |
| 2025 | W6 | New York Giants | 34 – 17 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | W18 | Philadelphia Eagles | 20 – 13 | New York Giants |
| 2024 | W7 | New York Giants | 3 – 28 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2023 | W18 | New York Giants | 27 – 10 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 2/13g | 13/53g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 49' |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 5 in 7g | 10/10g (1·3·1·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/11g | 37/44g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.83 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 4 in 7g | 9/10g (2·3·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 14/18g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' 19' |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/8g | 19/40g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 37% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/13g | 12% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tanner McKee | QB | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Gipson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 6 in 7g | 6/7g (0·1·1·0·0·3·1) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jaxson Dart | QB | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Beaux Collins | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darius Slayton | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 3/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Dart

**Philadelphia Eagles** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 46% · **scored Q1, Q2**
- ⚡ Jalen Hurts 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Dotson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1660 · New York Giants 1395 · ELO difference: 265 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 64 | 55 | Philadelphia Eagles +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 67 | 56 | Philadelphia Eagles +11 |
| Backfield | 40 | 52 | New York Giants +12 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 52 | Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
| Secondary | 57 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 50 | 63 | New York Giants +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 85%** — Philadelphia Eagles predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-26 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)