# Los Angeles Chargers v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 37 – 10 Minnesota Vikings

_Los Angeles Chargers run riot over Minnesota Vikings._

Half time: 21 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 49% / Minnesota Vikings 51% · SoFi Stadium · Fri, 24 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Gadsden (11'), Kimani Vidal (17'), Ladd McConkey (30' Tipped ⚡), Tre Harris (48') · Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison (41' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 51% | Lost |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 27 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 8, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Oct 2025, 11:15 am_

Los Angeles Chargers 37–10 Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 8 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty four point two. That's the gap between the Chargers' offensive EPA and the Vikings', and it tells you everything about how Los Angeles walked out of SoFi Stadium with a 37-10 win that was never really in doubt.

The Chargers scored on their first three meaningful drives and didn't look back. Oronde Gadsden II got it started with 4:05 left in the first, and by the time Ladd McConkey found the end zone with 50 seconds left in the half, it was 20-3 and the Vikings were chasing a game that had already got away from them. Minnesota's only answer came from Jordan Addison early in the third, a score that briefly made it 24-9 before Tre Harris put the result beyond argument with 12:48 left in the fourth.

The yardage tells the story on its own: 434 to 191. Minnesota managed just 34 rushing yards all game, a number that looks like a typo next to the Chargers' 207 on the ground. Kimani Vidal did most of that damage himself, 117 yards on 23 carries and a touchdown, and with the run game working that well, Los Angeles never had to lean too hard on the pass to stay ahead.

Not that the pass game needed help. Justin Herbert went 18-of-25 for 227 yards and three touchdowns, clean and efficient without needing to force anything. Carson Wentz, by contrast, finished 15-of-27 for 144 yards, one touchdown and a pick, numbers that reflect a Vikings offence that never found any rhythm. McConkey was the top target on the day, six catches for 88 yards and a score, doing the kind of quiet, repeatable damage that adds up fast.

The pass rush numbers matter here too. Chargers got home five times to Minnesota's two, and that kind of pressure differential usually shows up in a quarterback's week, which it did. Wentz was hurried into mistakes he wouldn't normally make, and the Vikings' first-down count, just 19 to the Chargers' 40, says a defence that spent most of the day on its heels.

What makes this one interesting is how far it strayed from the pre-match picture. Minnesota went in rated the stronger side by ELO, 1543 to 1500, and Alphr's model gave the Vikings 51% to win outright, with the Chargers only fancied by 6.1 points. Instead, Los Angeles won by 27, one of those results where the ratings and the scoreline simply don't agree. The total score, though, was almost bang on: the model called 47 combined points, the teams delivered exactly 47.

Minnesota's positional edges, a rated secondary advantage and a slight pass-rush edge on paper, never showed up where it counted. The Chargers' backfield and receiving corps did the damage instead, and special teams, where Los Angeles held a considerable rated edge at 81 to 70, likely played its part in field position throughout. Whatever form line the Vikings carried in, three wins in five with a positive average margin, none of it travelled to SoFi Stadium.

For the Chargers, it's a result that argues against their own recent form, two wins in five and a negative average margin coming in. Sometimes the ratings miss and the scoreboard doesn't care.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 37 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| **434** | Total Yards | 191 |
| **227** | Passing Yards | 157 |
| **207** | Rushing Yards | 34 |
| **40** | First Downs | 19 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **14.3** | Offensive EPA | -19.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Los Angeles Chargers defied the model's 51% prediction for Minnesota Vikings, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.1 but the actual margin was 27 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 47, within 0 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Los Angeles Chargers bucked the trend, Minnesota Vikings historically win 65% of games under Clete Blakeman, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $2.42 (edge +9.8%) — model probability 51.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings. The model can't split them, landing on Minnesota Vikings at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Minnesota Vikings sit 42 ELO points clear, 1543 to 1500.

Minnesota Vikings own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 47. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Minnesota Vikings have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Los Angeles Chargers took the most recent meeting 37-10 in 2025 Week 8.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota Vikings, with Jim Harbaugh and Kevin O'Connell calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $1.59 and Minnesota Vikings $2.42, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -3 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Los Angeles Chargers 4 · Minnesota Vikings 5 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 37-10 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-4 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · J.J. McCarthy |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.59 · Minnesota Vikings $2.42 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -3 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Minnesota Vikings

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7W–6L | 54% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 11W–6L | 65% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Minnesota Vikings hold a 11-point edge: 11W–6L (65%) vs Los Angeles Chargers's 7W–6L (54%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 26.6pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| -5.8pts | Avg Margin | 3.4pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W3 W · W4 L · W5 L · W6 W · W7 L | 20.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W2 L · W3 W · W4 L · W5 W · W7 L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W8 | Los Angeles Chargers | 37 – 10 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2023 | W3 | Minnesota Vikings | 24 – 28 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2021 | W10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 20 – 27 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2019 | W15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10 – 39 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2015 | W3 | Minnesota Vikings | 31 – 14 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 14/32g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/12g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 13% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/19g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jaret Patterson | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 9/44g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nyheim Hines | RB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 48' |

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·3·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Zavier Scott | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Ben Yurosek | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Carson Wentz | QB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Max Brosmer | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Aaron Jones 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Addison — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Jordan Mason — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Chargers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Keenan Allen 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Chargers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Gadsden, K.Vidal, T.Harris

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Minnesota Vikings hold the ELO advantage (1543 vs 1500), but the market favours Los Angeles Chargers (@1.59). The model sides with ELO, Minnesota Vikings predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1500 · Minnesota Vikings 1543 · ELO difference: 42 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 51 | 48 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 51 | 50 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 56 | Even |
| Secondary | 44 | 55 | Minnesota Vikings +11 |
| Special Teams | 81 | 70 | Los Angeles Chargers +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Minnesota Vikings predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-24 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)