# Denver Broncos v Dallas Cowboys — NFL Week 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 44 – 24 Dallas Cowboys

_Denver Broncos stampede past Dallas Cowboys._

Half time: 27 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 51% / Dallas Cowboys 49% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 27 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: RJ Harvey (7'), Troy Franklin (12'), RJ Harvey (27'), Pat Bryant (30'), Troy Franklin (48'), RJ Harvey (53') · Dallas Cowboys: Javonte Williams (23' Tipped ⚡), Javonte Williams (37' Tipped ⚡), Jalen Tolbert (56')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 51% | Won |
| Dallas Cowboys | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 8, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 27 Oct 2025, 07:25 am_

Denver Broncos 44–24 Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 8 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked Denver Broncos here, correctly picking them to win at 51 per cent, and had them up by 7.7 points on the ratings gap between 1595 and 1493. What it didn't see coming was the size of it. Denver Broncos won by 20, 44-24, and the pre-match margin read wasn't close.

Where the model's logic held up was in the shape of the thing. Dallas Cowboys came in rated stronger at quarterback, in the receiving corps and on special teams, while Denver Broncos had the edge in pass rush, secondary and backfield form. That's roughly how it played out, just with far more force than projected. RJ Harvey did the damage on the ground and in the end zone, scoring three times, while Denver Broncos ran for 179 yards as a team, 42 per cent of their total output. That ground game is what turned a competitive matchup on paper into a rout on the field.

The scoreboard tells the early story too. RJ Harvey opened it with 8:21 left in the first quarter, Troy Franklin followed before the term was out, and Denver Broncos led 14-3 at the end of the first. Javonte Williams got Dallas Cowboys back within five early in the second, but Denver Broncos answered straight away with another Harvey score, then a Pat Bryant touchdown with 44 seconds left in the half to take a 27-10 lead into the sheds. That's a 17-point cushion built inside two quarters, and Dallas Cowboys never got closer than 10 points again.

The third quarter was Dallas Cowboys' best window. Williams scored again to make it 27-16, but Denver Broncos still stretched the lead to 30-17 by the end of the term. Then the fourth quarter turned it from a contest into a formality. Franklin's second touchdown made it 36-17, and Harvey's third, at the 7:18 mark, pushed the margin out to 26. Jalen Tolbert's late score for Dallas Cowboys just tidied up the final number, 44-24.

Through the air, Bo Nix was efficient rather than spectacular: 19 from 29 for 247 yards and four touchdowns, with one interception. Dak Prescott matched him completion for completion at 19 from 31, but for less yardage at 188 and with two interceptions instead of one. That gap in ball security decided plenty. Dallas Cowboys turned it over twice to Denver Broncos' once, and against a side already up double figures, those giveaways just accelerated the bleeding.

Add it up and Denver Broncos outgained Dallas Cowboys 426 yards to 354 and were the far more efficient side doing it, 16.6 points clear on offensive EPA, 20.5 to 3.9. J.K. Dobbins led all rushers with 111 yards on 15 carries, and Troy Franklin was the game's top target with six catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns.

Denver Broncos came into this on a 4

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 14 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 44 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **426** | Total Yards | 354 |
| **247** | Passing Yards | 246 |
| **179** | Rushing Yards | 108 |
| **38** | First Downs | 32 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **20.5** | Offensive EPA | 3.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 20 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 23 points above Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Denver Broncos's victory aligns with Carl Cheffers's historical trend, Denver Broncos have a 56% win rate under this referee. Denver Broncos's home victory fits Carl Cheffers's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.52 (edge -14.4%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 8 · Predicted total: 58

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. The model can't split them, landing on Denver Broncos at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 102 ELO points clear, 1595 to 1493. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Dallas Cowboys.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 58. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Denver Broncos have won 7 of the last 7 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 44-24 in 2025 Week 8.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Dak Prescott for Dallas Cowboys, with Sean Payton and Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.52 and Dallas Cowboys $2.60, with the spread at Denver Broncos -3.5 and the total at 51.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Denver Broncos 7 · Dallas Cowboys 0 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 44-24 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 3-6 away |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Dak Prescott |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Brian Schottenheimer |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.52 · Dallas Cowboys $2.60 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -3.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Denver Broncos

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 10W–8L | 56% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6W–6L | 50% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Denver Broncos hold a 6-point edge: 10W–8L (56%) vs Dallas Cowboys's 6W–6L (50%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 32.4pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 29.0pts |
| 5.8pts | Avg Margin | 3.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W3 L · W4 W · W5 W · W6 W · W7 W | 23.0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | W3 L · W4 D · W5 W · W6 L · W7 W | 32.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W8 | Denver Broncos | 44 – 24 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2021 | W9 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 – 30 | Denver Broncos |
| 2017 | W2 | Denver Broncos | 42 – 17 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2013 | W5 | Dallas Cowboys | 48 – 51 | Denver Broncos |
| 2009 | W4 | Denver Broncos | 17 – 10 | Dallas Cowboys |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/4g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 5/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 16/42g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 2 in 7g | 6/10g (2·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/19g | 24% | — | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 29% | — | 🏉 7' 27' 53' |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 24% | — | 🏉 12' 48' |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/16g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/13g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jarrett Stidham | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 5% | — | — |

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/27g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.93 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 37' |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 39% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Jaydon Blue | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Milton III | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Malik Davis | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Dallas Cowboys** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 56% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Jake Ferguson — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Cowboys: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Tolbert

**Denver Broncos** (2 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Harvey, T.Franklin, P.Bryant

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1595 · Dallas Cowboys 1493 · ELO difference: 102 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Dallas Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 57 | 70 | Dallas Cowboys +13 |
| Receiving Corps | 55 | 72 | Dallas Cowboys +17 |
| Backfield | 55 | 52 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 63 | 58 | Denver Broncos +5 |
| Secondary | 56 | 46 | Denver Broncos +10 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 71 | Dallas Cowboys +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 58 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-10-26 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)